RankingsOctober 18, 2009


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2009-10 Preseason Roto Rankings - 5 comments

By Phil Londen

With another NBA season just around the corner, we pulled together eight grizzled Cafe veterans to compile the Fantasy Basketball Cafe’s 2009-10 Preseason Roto Rankings. Every person ranked their top 156 players with the individual results averaged to determine the final ranking. Averaging eight different sets of rankings from eight knowledgeable managers helps provide a nice barometer of the mindset of competitive fantasy managers while also minimizing the impact of personal biases.

As an added bonus, the rankings also include the standard deviation of the players’ ranks. This is a simple way of illustrating which players have the highest variance across the individual rankings. A higher standard deviation means that there a was greater disagreement in where a player is ranked. There were three players who had a standard deviation of zero, meaning that all eight rankers agreed on their ranking (Chris Paul, Lebron James and Dwyane Wade). To sort by standard deviation (or any other field for that matter, check out a sortable version of the chart. When sorted according to standard deviation, you notice that a lot of players being hyped as breakout players have a higher standard deviation, as not everyone agrees on their value next season.

Assumptions:
• Standard 9 Category (PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO, FG%, FT%).
• Rotisserie scoring.
• 12 Teams and 13 Rounds (156 total players drafted).
• Redraft league.
• Standard Yahoo! Position Eligibility.
• Standard Yahoo! Rosters (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util, BN, BN, BN).
 

 NameplondenggsgeodbearRedCDsilentjimcnoteDVAVGSTDEV
1Chris Paul1111111110
2Lebron James2222222220
3Dwyane Wade3333333330
4Kevin Durant444544444.130.35
5Danny Granger555455554.880.35
6Kobe Bryant766676666.250.46
7Dirk Nowitzki677767776.750.46
8Amare Stoudemire8881188888.381.06
9Chris Bosh9912991391110.131.64
10Brandon Roy101111101011101210.630.74
11Deron Williams1112981312111311.131.81
12Pau Gasol12101313189129122.93
13Al Jefferson131310161110141012.132.23
14Steve Nash141515141515131414.380.74
15Chauncey Billups161414181417151515.381.51
16Jose Calderon151716151216161815.631.77
17Jason Kidd171817121614191916.52.45
18Gerald Wallace1824211917191816192.51
19Caron Butler202023172318171719.382.46
20Devin Harris231630302020222222.884.88
21Brook Lopez222220222431202423.133.52
22Andre Iguodala262328331923232024.384.53
23Troy Murphy192518212125392724.386.69
24Joe Johnson283037242224242827.134.82
25Gilbert Arenas242622293021273827.135.4
26Tim Duncan392139272822212327.57.55
27Vince Carter272827262934262527.752.8
28Kevin Martin363226252526302628.254.03
29Antawn Jamison*213729323227253029.134.88
30David West292934312729282929.52.14
31Carmelo Anthony333525232637313630.755.42
32Dwight Howard381919383138333331.137.95
33Kevin Garnett422731363628292131.256.54
34Elton Brand253124203832384331.388
35Jason Richardson403433283535323233.633.42
36Shawn Marion314138343330344035.134.09
37David Lee343335374033453536.54.14
38Rashard Lewis373632394636373437.134.16
39Paul Pierce324046403744353738.884.61
40Josh Smith433936453443463139.635.5
41LaMarcus Aldridge354740413939364640.384.27
42Ray Allen304252464141443941.886.27
43Mehmet Okur414442444745424143.252.12
44Monta Ellis453847435451404745.635.34
45Andrea Bargnani5446494242504144464.63
46Manu Ginobili444343355242437046.510.54
47Rajon Rondo554550544340514547.885.41
48Al Horford5252414844474753484.21
49Nene505751534549484850.133.64
50Jason Terry474954564952554250.54.69
51Andris Biedrins584848594846545151.54.96
52John Salmons465155515557495552.383.74
53Carlos Boozer4954565850486049534.63
54Jameer Nelson4856535551545354532.51
55Leandro Barbosa535058495653505853.383.62
56Mo Williams625957525755525756.383.38
57Marcus Camby575344616861596358.257.23
58Andrew Bynum616466575362585659.634.37
59Baron Davis815545476659616559.8811.48
60Al Harrington646068506767565060.257.5
61Eric Gordon515865635871576961.56.72
62Tony Parker606264675970645262.255.47
63Anthony Randolph6865596063646659633.38
64Charlie Villanueva656160696063636463.133
65Tyrus Thomas667163686166696065.53.89
66Ben Gordon566769866458706166.389.4
67Luis Scola677661657673686268.55.93
68Wilson Chandler637562646972628368.757.55
69Emeka Okafor876870626568657269.637.69
70Michael Redd747276727356736770.386.35
71Derrick Rose886671667569677171.637.29
72Ron Artest597472717975717471.885.82
73Andre MIller777074827076766874.134.61
74Stephen Jackson837373747160868275.258.31
75Rudy Gay846383926265886675.3812.51
76Mario Chalmers697978707274729075.56.85
77Paul Millsap857867738378748878.256.92
78Boris Diaw767779897883757378.755.09
79J.R. Smith758075757777809278.885.69
80Mike Bibby728189908282797881.635.83
81Russell Westbrook866991847484788781.637.35
82Jeff Green898284798485777782.134.22
83Thaddeus Young798380789280828582.384.5
84O.J. Mayo788588958181877583.756.34
85Nate Robinson7110077801008681938610.74
86Joakim Noah929492768687837986.136.49
87Marvin Williams738881859689859686.637.61
88Trevor Ariza939386938079849487.756.27
89Ramon Sessions709810288938889768810.62
90Rasheed Wallace809782918894928688.755.87
91Ronnie Brewer8292858797919010190.636.21
92Michael Beasley90919883101909481916.8
93Hedo Turkoglu9486901058796938091.387.52
94Spencer Hawes99871041018592918492.887.62
95T.J. Ford969693949597968994.52.56
96Kevin Love*10095105779493979794.758.12
97Josh Howard10584969898951039997.256.32
98Lamar Odom958987991021029910997.757.23
99Chris Kaman101101107819010010410398.388.58
100Chris Andersen911069410710710195100100.136.29
101Greg Oden1039095961109811698100.758.53
102Zach Randolph989999971149998105101.135.74
103Andrei Kirilenko102102101100115103100113104.55.98
104Luol Deng97112106113108104105104106.135.06
105Jermaine O’Neal112117111104104106102102107.255.47
106Shane Battier127105100102105107101122108.6310.16
107Raymond Felton113103103109121112106106109.136.08
108Rodney Stuckey110113127108103105107108110.137.45
109Aaron Brooks1291111291109910910891110.7513.12
110Grant Hill12310811311911111611295112.138.39
111Richard Hamilton114110119121106108111110112.385.26
112Kelenna Azubuike111118109111109113110119112.53.93
113Mike Conley10712097112123117113118113.388.3
114Andrew Bogut1341041161259111411711111412.94
115Jason Thompson126109128103113110109116114.258.71
116Danilo Gallinari10413210810689120123132114.2515.07
117Louis Williams108114124114126115114107115.256.73
118Blake Griffin117107126116116111115117115.635.45
119Courtney Lee124121123117125119118114120.133.8
120Allen Iverson118123118129117118119130121.55.26
121Brad Miller122115112139122130121121122.758.45
122Richard Jefferson1091261141381241231221281238.77
123Tayshaun Prince131116121124130122120126123.755.09
124Mike Miller106125120123142121130131124.7510.39
125Marc Gasol125122115122141127127120124.887.62
126D.J. Augustin132128110120118128128139125.389.02
127Chris Duhon139119125115128129124125125.57.13
128Kenyon Martin148124132126132125131115129.139.48
129Corey Maggette133127135140131133126127131.54.78
130Ryan Gomes147140153118112124125135131.7514.38
131Samuel Dalembert136139134127119132132140132.386.82
132Tyson Chandler135138136137144137129112133.59.61
133Yi Jianlian119134133132129131141162135.1310.95
134Brendan Haywood137135142130140136136129135.634.44
135Jamal Crawford146129154134127126133136135.639.75
136Roy Hibbert116143117128162139137147136.1314.36
137Anthony Parker115131143145156135140124136.1312.86
138Carl Landry121145140141133134139148137.638.38
139Kirk Hinrich152133130131135138138150138.388.33
140Antonio McDyess128141122146162144144123138.7512.46
141Channing Frye120144155136134162134134139.8812.24
142Shaquille O’Neal144142138142143145143137141.752.82
143Brandon Rush1301461501331531431351461428.38
144Rudy Fernandez143137131143136162142154143.58.84
145Kendrick Perkins162148149149120140147138144.1311.15
146Julian Wright138136148147139154153162147.138.02
147Randy Foye140130162162155146146142147.889.47
148Darko Milicic149154162148138142152141148.256.74
149Ronny Turiaf145149137151148156151153148.755.78
150Andres Nocioni162147141150162162150133150.888.6
151Stephen Curry156150145144162162148162152.435.66
152Tracy McGrady162162146154145147149155152.55.04
153Anthony Morrow155162139135162151155162152.638.78
154Luc Richard Mbah a Moute141152162162137155156162153.387.96
155Tyreke Evans142162151152162162162145154.755.97
156Mike Dunleavy151153162162151162154144154.884.44
N/RAl Thornton162156162162162141145162156.56.5
N/RDrew Gooden153155162153162149162162157.252.92
N/RLuke Ridnour162162162162147162162143157.755.66
N/RThabo Sefolosha162162147155162153162162158.133.55
N/RPeja Stojakovic162162156162152162162151158.632.51
N/RRasual Butler1621621521621621621621561601.75
N/RJarrett Jack162162162162146162162152158.754.04
N/RBrandon Jennings1621621621621501501621621593.24
N/RNenad Krstic154162162162162162162149159.382.88
N/RDelonte West162151162162154162162162159.632.23
N/RRasual Butler1621621521621621621621561601.75
N/RHakim Warrick1621621621561621521621621601.75

 

Legend:
Red = RedHopeful
CD = CavemanDoctor
cnote = cnote23
DV = DVauthrin

 

Notes:
The Francisco Garcia injury was taken into account in these rankings, which explains why he does not appear. The Kevin Love and Antawn Jamison injuries were not taken into account, which means that these players’ ranks should be downgraded accordingly and the ranks of players likely to benefit from their injuries should be likewise upgraded. Special thanks to all of the rankers for donating their time and knowledge to compiling these rankings.

 
Phil Londen is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Phil in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name plonden.
 
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5 Responses to “2009-10 Preseason Roto Rankings”

  1. User avatar geodbear says:

    Much thanks to plonden for putting this together and getting us rankers to finish this.

    The players with highest std dev aren’t necessarily the hyped players, but also ones with the usual concerns – coming back from injuries, new team, new role, age, etc. In the top 50, Ginobili is tops, followed by Brand, Howard, and Duncan. Ginobili and Brand have the injuries (and age), Duncan the age. Howard is because of how negative the free throws are, and whether you believe you can compensate or win by tanking that category even in roto. (As it is though, it was only GGS and I who ranked Howard high. The rest of the rankers were close in agreement of his value. Interesting comment from SVG thinking Howard should avg above 70% this season. If that’s the case, Howard makes top 10 in roto.)

    ReplyReply
  2. plonden says:

    Good point of clarification, geodbear. I didn’t mean to imply that only the hyped players ended up with higher standard deviations. However, I was just trying to highlight the fact that many of these hyped players ended up with relatively high standard deviations. As you pointed out, there are a lot of reasons why a player could have ended up with a high standard deviation.

    ReplyReply
  3. Longshot says:

    I’m surprised to see TroyMurph ranked so high after the other article on this site pointing out all the risks associated with him. Any thoughts around that?

    ReplyReply
  4. User avatar cnote23 says:

    Longshot my thoughts are the same I cant trust the guy.

    ReplyReply
  5. plonden says:

    Longshot: It should be noted that neither of the two guys who wrote the Murphy piece participated in the Rankings. However, do notice that Murphy’s Standard Deviation is 6.69, which is the highest of anyone in the top 25. He was ranked as high as 18th overall (geodbear) and as low as 39th overall (cnote23), giving him a spread of 21 (difference between highest and lowest ranking). Thus, it is easy to see that there is a lot of disagreement on where to place Troy’s value next season. It is interesting to note that no one put him outside of the top 50 and 6 out of 8 rankers put him inside the top 25. Just some observations from the rankings.

    ReplyReply

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