SleepersJuly 28, 2010

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Sleeper Watch - 1 comments

By Brett Roberts

Sleeper: Marcus Thornton (SG-NOH)
The 45th overall pick in the 2009 draft received his opportunity to start last year and made the most of it.

09-10 Stats: 14.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.0 TO/g, 1.6 3/g, avg 25 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 18.2 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 TO/g, 2.4 3/g, 31 mins/g

Breakout: Tyrus Thomas (F-CHA)

Tyrus finally seems to have found a home in Charlotte.

09-10 Stats (Post Trade): 10.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 0.9 spg, 44% FG, 21 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 13.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 1.0 spg, 47% FG, 26 mins/g

Breakout: Anthony Morrow (SG-NJN)
We’ll see how good Morrow really is now that he will be a featured part of the offense in New Jersey (presumably). He led the league in three point percentage last season, but could expand his game even more with an increased role.

09-10 Stats: 13.0 ppg, 1.5 apg, 3.8 rpg, 0.9 spg, 2.0 3/g (45.6%), 29 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 16.5 ppg, 2.1 apg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 spg, 2.6 3/g, 34 mins/g

Breakout: J.J. Hickson (FC-CLE)
Hickson should receive plenty of minutes, but will no longer be able to run the backdoor cuts with Lebron James that gave him so many easy and open dunks. Still, his athleticism and Cleveland’s commitment to building a contender post-James makes Hickson an appealing player to develop.

09-10 Stats: 8.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.5 apg, 0.4 spg, 55% FG, 20 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 12.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 1.0 apg, 0.7 spg, 29 mins/g

Sleeper: Reggie Williams (SF-GSW)
Reggie Williams and Anthony Tolliver turned out to be D-league gems for the Warriors. Down the stretch run of the season (albeit a meaningless one for the Warriors), both performed brilliantly. While I don’t expect him to maintain those numbers, he will come close and should battle Dorrell Wright for the starting role at SF.

09-10 Stats: 15.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.2 TO/g, 1.4 3/g, 31 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 14.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.1 spg, 1.4 TO/g, 1.4 3/g, 32 mins/g

Sleeper: Steve Blake (PG-LAL)
Playing in the triangle offense, Blake will learn how easy it is to get the ball to players that convert on the pass and enable one to get an assist. Throwing it down to Bynum and Gasol will prove to yield more assists than throwing it down to Kaman. Not only will Blake get more assists, but expect his efficiency to improve playing alongside better players.

09-10 Stats (with LAC): 6.8 ppg, 6.1 apg, 2.4 rpg, 2.2 TO/g, 0.7 spg, 1.3 3/g, 26 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 9.3 ppg, 7.8 apg, 3.1 rpg, 2.6 TO/g, 0.9 spg, 1.7 3/g, 29 mins/g

Sleeper: DeJuan Blair (FC-SAS)
Blair has already shown a Reggie Evans-like ability on the boards. It’s a matter of debate whether he will ever transform himself into much of a scorer, but he should eventually be a walking double-double.

09-10 Stats: 7.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 55% FG, 18 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 9.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.9 spg, 23 mins/g

Breakout: Bill Walker (GF-NYK)
Bill Walker has amazing athleticism and a great three point shot. As far as I can tell, it will enable him to have a very solid career, and he really came into his own as a Knick last year.

09-10 Stats (27 games): 11.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.9 3/g, 27 mpg

10-11 Prediction: 14.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.1 3/g, 31 mpg

Breakout: Omri Casspi (GF-SAC)
Casspi had a very solid rookie year and proved he is a versatile player, as well as a good ball handler for his size. Nocioni’s departure should clear the way for Casspi to get a few extra minutes a night.

09-10 Stats: 10.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.0 3/g, 25 mins./g

10-11 Prediction: 13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.3 3/g, 32 mins/g

Breakout: Rodrique Beaubois (G-DAL)
Beaubois drew high praise from veteran back court players Kidd & Terry. We’ll get a chance to see just how good he is this year. Last year, he did have a 40 With Kidd and Terry aging, expect the Mavs to try to develop Beaubois.

09-10 Stats: 7.1 ppg, 1.3 apg, 1.4 rpg, 0.5 spg, 51.8% FG, 12.5 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 11.1 ppg, 1.8 apg, 1.9 rpg, 0.8 spg, 20 mins/g

Breakout: Serge Ibaka (C-OKC)
Ibaka really showed what he was made of in the playoffs vs LAL when he averaged 7.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg (including a 7 block game 2), 25/g.

09-10 Stats: 6.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 54% FG, 18 mins/g

10-11 Prediction: 8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 24 mins/g

Brett Roberts is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Brett in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of Nene.
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• Other articles by Brett Roberts
Opening Tip Sleepers by Phil Londen (posted on 10/25/2009 in Sleepers)
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One Response to “Sleepers and Breakouts”

  1. B-Chad says:

    Well written, and sound logical explanation for each player. While I don’t necessarily agree with each sleeper and your forecast (obviously the beauty and science of unearthing sleepers), at least you had sound reasoning behind their inclusion and your prognostication.


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