OpinionOctober 1, 2010


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Ask Nene: Week One - 4 comments

By Brett Roberts

Q: MY Chauncey Billups, Darren Collison & Luis Scola for HIS Kevin Durant, Omri Casspi & D.J. Augustin?-NikeTxGuy

A: I advise against doing this trade. While Durant is obviously a stud and the number one player in fantasy right now, you are giving up too much. Billups is a second round talent, Collison is a beast and could end up being a top 30 player this year. Scola is coming off a beast of a performance in the FIBA championships and could easily put up 18 & 10 (albeit not contributing much in other categories). Meanwhile, while Durant is a total monster, Casspi and DJ Augustin are both late round flyer type of guys, and don’t compensate enough for the loss of three quality players. I understand the appeal of Durant, but you’re just giving up too much. Don’t do that trade.

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Q: What players do you think could be steals based on their “O-Ranks?”-DVauthrin

A: Most of the rankings this year are accurate, as they were last year, and no longer are there many steals to be made based on O-Ranks. While I understand the concept of finding players who will significantly outperform their O-Rank, this idea really only applies to Public Leagues and playing with fantasy fish.

Nonetheless, here are a few players that I feel are better than their O-Rank:

#16) Dwight Howard
I understand the ranking is splitting the difference between Head to Head and Rotisserie leagues, but he is obviously a top eight pick in head to head, if not top five.

#25) Al Jefferson
I expect Big Al to put up second round value, a tad better than his O-Rank of 25. He’s coming off another offseason of rest and rehab, so his knee should be better able to take the rigors of the season. Moreover, he has Deron Williams passing to him now, instead of Jonny Flynn.

#67) Gilbert Arenas
While I understand the concerns with Arenas’ state of mind and his knees, I still think he’ll vastly outperform this draft position. He should put up top 40 value at a minimum — provided he can stay healthy.

#70) Channing Frye
Frye finished last season ranked 33rd. While some feel the loss of Amare may hurt Frye, I stand in the other camp. Frye will continue his dead eye shooting and should still find plenty of minutes. He’s going to outperform this draft position and finish in the top 50.

#95) Andris Biedrins
Nelson stepping down means big things for Biedrins. Nellie never seemed to give him a fair chance, but if he works his way into Keith Smart’s good graces, he could return to fantasy form and be a great steal.

#128) DeMarcus Cousins
While I know all the risks of taking rookies high, Cousins has the talent to significantly outperform his O-rank of 128. Of course, he could be a total headcase and struggle to stay in shape. I’m a believer in Cousins, though, and think he’ll crack the top 80, at least.

#142) DeMar DeRozan
Adding a three-point shot to his arsenal (which he displayed in summer league) seemed like the best thing he could do. Already very athletic, DeRozan will now have the inside-outside game that fantasy owners love. If he starts, as many suspect he will, he could be a real steal here.

 
Brett Roberts is one of a growing number of fantasy experts who write for the Cafe. You can catch up with Brett in the Cafe's forums where he posts under the name of Nene.
 
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• Other articles by Brett Roberts
Ask Nene: Week Two by David Vauthrin (posted on 10/26/2010 in Articles)
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Ask Nene – Week 3 by Brett Roberts (posted on 10/26/2009 in Articles)

4 Responses to “Ask Nene: Week One”

  1. Skippyoz says:

    Great calls on Biedrins and Arenas. Good points on the others.

    I’m not sold on DeRozan, however. In Summer league (unless if I’m missing something) he took 5 three point attempts and made 2. I don’t think this small sample size is good enough. I realize he only made 4 threes last year, but I would want to wait until I see him in some pre-season games before I draft him. Also, in 65 games as a starter last year, he only averaged 0.7 assists per game. That’s terrible. I’d rather take a chance on Richard Hamilton (O-Rank of 147) at that point.

    ReplyReply
  2. User avatar Nene says:

    I, for some reason, have a strong feeling about DeRozan. Maybe it is partly because the Raptors are horrible and will need to develop their young talent. It’s not really fair to hold him to his rookie stats, as a good number of players don’t really come out of their shell until into their second year.

    I see your point about Hamilton, but I guess I am more of a gambler than you. Fantasy leagues are often won by the manager who takes a few risks.

    ReplyReply
  3. User avatar DVauthrin says:

    nice job Nene. I agree with you on DeRozan. The only guy I’m not as bullish on as yourself is Cousins. I think he’s a year away from being a fantasy factor.

    ReplyReply
  4. bullzfan says:

    I agree nice list. On the flipside who do you think are some guys you think yahoo got wrong in regards to their 0-ranking?

    ReplyReply

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