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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:49 pm

geodbear wrote:I don't see anything wrong with stockpiling young talent in a keeper/dynasty league situation, but that wouldn't necessarily be strategy for a one-year league. What Portland did was over three years and counting. In the Reshuffle, you looked at the long-term, but this mock is a one-year deal. As I said before, I don't dispute the value or potential in your selections, just whether it make sense to do it all on one team. It is funny though, how your last year's mock team has veterans in comparison. The two big outperforming players were Kaman and Dunleavy, who were players with potential but had been in the league for a while before putting up career numbers last year.


It's really hard for me to give you an accurate cross comparison between real life and a fantasy draft, because like you said, this draft is a one-year deal whereas we have extremes like Seattle (Durant/Green) and Dallas (Harris for JKidd). I guess by going into that territory I was just digging myself a hole. I stockpiled on talent where I didn't have much to lose at all -- primarily my bench and my UTIL (somewhat). I don't think I'm missing out on many 'savvy vets' in late rounds who will give me something I wouldn't be able to find on the waiver wire already during the season. And I'll emphasize the WW part because I'm usually a hawk and end up putting in a high volume of add/drops in-season (I think I totaled around 75 in the F&F). I can pretty much guarantee you that if I draft 3 vets like a Wilcox, Ben Wallace, or Mobley, they'll be off my roster soon enough in light of some off-season developments that open up the window for other players to produce better numbers.

Buz did something in our fantasy football draft last night that I can sort of relate to this. Last few rounds you're supposed to take a kicker and DEF. Well he was in a position to take some decent but not spectacular fillers for those positions but opted to go for extra position players instead. By the start of the season he can see which guys hit and which guys didn't, then pick up some slightly worse fillers to fill those spots. He's also relying on the fact that K/DEF are usually matchup-specific and can be switched around on a week to week basis. Kind of the same way I view my bench. There's a reason why they're drafted that low -- they don't put up great production or they're usually hot and cold. Pretty much my intention was to get as many shots at landing that breakout top 60 player as possible. If I missed then oh well, I don't think I'm missing out on a whole lot anyways. Upside definitely outweighs the downside for me, especially given the format and my add/drop volume.

Hopefully that made sense.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby ChipaDub » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:34 pm

mbuser wrote:
ChipaDub wrote:
mbuser wrote:i'm anticipating randolph/lee being the starting frontcourt, as in every game


Man it's going to be an awfully long year for the Knicks if Zach is entrenched at C. I could see them adjusting their line up often depending on matchup. Zach will not be guarding Shaq, Z, Yao, etc.

it's going to be an awfully long year for them regardless, but how many etc's are really there where randolph would simply be physically overmatched? curry is their only other option, but i'm not sure he constitutes a defensive upgrade even if he has more mass


I imagine D'Ant will find a Pat Burke type guy to battle the beasts down low. It's not so much that he'll be dominated one v one by everyone, but have a big man for help is so key and ZBo is SO bad at that. No vision or effort. No sense.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:50 pm

Rounders Block wrote:Buz did something in our fantasy football draft last night that I can sort of relate to this. Last few rounds you're supposed to take a kicker and DEF. Well he was in a position to take some decent but not spectacular fillers for those positions but opted to go for extra position players instead. By the start of the season he can see which guys hit and which guys didn't, then pick up some slightly worse fillers to fill those spots. He's also relying on the fact that K/DEF are usually matchup-specific and can be switched around on a week to week basis. Kind of the same way I view my bench. There's a reason why they're drafted that low -- they don't put up great production or they're usually hot and cold. Pretty much my intention was to get as many shots at landing that breakout top 60 player as possible. If I missed then oh well, I don't think I'm missing out on a whole lot anyways. Upside definitely outweighs the downside for me, especially given the format and my add/drop volume.

Hopefully that made sense.


I do this in football pretty regularly because of one game a week and match-ups. I ended up taking stabs at guys like Shaun Alexander at the end of the draft hoping that he got signed to someone before the season starts. If not, I'll drop him and pick up a good match-up defense the first week.

Implementing the same practice in basketball is slightly more complicated in that games are more abundant and match-ups aren't as important. Obviously in ROTO its easier to pull off though since at the very least you have a bench.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby The Thrill » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:56 pm

ChipaDub wrote:etc's?


ChipaDub wrote:Zach will not be guarding Shaq, Z, Yao, etc.


;-)
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby baller crimson » Tue Aug 12, 2008 4:43 am

Since we're finished with this now, I just wanted to say I believe everyone's had a really solid showing and it went relatively fast. Nice job guys. :-) ;-D Same time, same place next year? :-D
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Tue Aug 12, 2008 7:43 am

Thought I'd toss in my two cents regarding drafts with an odd number of rounds, i.e. this league with 13 rounds. It's actually biased against the people who have late picks in the first round, because they end up picking late in the first and the last rounds, i.e. 1st and 13th in this league. The snake draft system is supposed to be "fair" because a late pick in the odd-numbered rounds is evened out by early picks on the even-numbered rounds. By having an odd number of rounds in total, the last late pick isn't evened out by a subsequent early pick, which leads to the bias against those with late picks.

I'm sure most people in this draft already know this, but maybe not since this mock, as with many leagues, was done with an odd number of players on the rosters, and thus an odd number of draft rounds. I think that any league that utilizes a snake draft format is inherently biased against those with late picks, and, as a result, should instead all have an even number of roster spots/draft rounds.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby ChipaDub » Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:24 am

bokzg wrote:Thought I'd toss in my two cents regarding drafts with an odd number of rounds, i.e. this league with 13 rounds. It's actually biased against the people who have late picks in the first round, because they end up picking late in the first and the last rounds, i.e. 1st and 13th in this league. The snake draft system is supposed to be "fair" because a late pick in the odd-numbered rounds is evened out by early picks on the even-numbered rounds. By having an odd number of rounds in total, the last late pick isn't evened out by a subsequent early pick, which leads to the bias against those with late picks.

I'm sure most people in this draft already know this, but maybe not since this mock, as with many leagues, was done with an odd number of players on the rosters, and thus an odd number of draft rounds. I think that any league that utilizes a snake draft format is inherently biased against those with late picks, and, as a result, should instead all have an even number of roster spots/draft rounds.



It'll never happen but, for example consider a draft done based on bbm value avg. The results are so far from what I've experienced I don't think it has much value. Interesting break down though. It probably wouldn't matter if it was a 14 player/team draft in this example, but it would give you a shot at claiming some sleepers irl.

Draft Spot / BBM rank
1/0.33
2/0.16
3/0.09
4/0.07
5/-0.02
6/-0.03
7/-0.03
8/-0.06
9/-0.08
10/-0.11
11/-0.11
12/-0.11


Cumu
1/0.41
2/0.22
3/0.14
4/0.01
5/-0.08
6/-0.07
7/-0.09
8/-0.05
9/-0.07
10/-0.07
11/-0.09
12/-0.10
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby the one » Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:56 am

Great Mock. I feel I gained a lot from everyone's drafting and explanations. It will really help me with my ratings.

A quick question, last year Sean May was a very popular late round flier. I considered him but didn't know anything about his condition. Has anything changed or have people just given up on drafting the always injured May? Any other late rounders to consider?
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby ggs » Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:42 pm

I also found it interesting how a lot of vets slipped while fliers were being taken on younger guys, not sure if this will happen in other leagues but it's worth noting. Also this Mock helped determine value for a lot of guys who performed poorly last year - I wanted to see where guys like Hinrich, Deng, JHoward etc would go. Generally I like to target players who performed below expectations in the previous year for whatever reason.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby geodbear » Tue Aug 12, 2008 2:41 pm

In regards to Sean May, I thought about him but had no information in regards to his recovery and current health, and wasn't going to take the time to research. I'd say a lot depends on how he does in preseason before he is considered in drafts.
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