Welcome to the 2008 Experts Roto Mock Draft. For the 9 of you who took part last year, welcome back , and for the 3 new guys (baller_crimson, nebgib, ggs) who will be joining us for the first time, we're glad to have you guys on board. We have gathered a very experienced and knowledgeable group of savvy Cafe vets for this mock and we are expecting a very solid showing from all of you and a great end result. Let the fun begin!
Even Numbered Rounds: 1 The Thrill 2 bokzg 3 geodbear 4 ggs 5 silentjim 6 mbuser 7 nebgib5 8 CavemanDoctor 9 the one 10 Rounders Block 11 baller_crimson 12 jaytizy
For draft order verification, I entered the e-mails of Buser, jay, and bokzg when plugging the draft order into the ProFantasySports.com Draft Randomizer. All 3 should have e-mails in their Inbox.
As to rules for the draft, there are a couple:
Pick Format: Participants will post their draft picks in the following format: 1.1 Gheorghe Mureşan (C - WAS)
Statements: Participants shall provide a brief statement with each pick explaining the reasons for the selection and any other thoughts they'd care to provide. This will aid observers of this mock draft in understanding why a player was taken at his respected spot. We are often able to see the raw results from a mock draft, but commentary will provide the mock with substance as well.
Time Limit: Even though this draft will only include experienced, active managers and we do not foresee many problems with inactivity and missed picks, there will be a 24-hour time limit enforced on each pick. When this time limit has passed, I will make the pick accordingly for the manager based on the best player available as well as any positional needs.
Alerts: After you post your pick, please PM the manager who is preceding you and let him know he is on the clock. This will help keep everyone on the same page and keep the draft going at a good pace.
This is a no brainer as Paul's 07-08 BBM values are unrivaled (Regular season: .94 per-game, 1.04 cumulative... Post break: 1.05 per-game, 1.24 cumulative). His overall value is so far ahead of the rest of the field that it would actually be inappropriate to even consider another player here at 1.01. Amazingly, it's completely feasible that Paul improve upon his already peerless value as indicated by his age (22) and post break numbers (21.9 pts, 4.1 rbs, 12.6 asts, 1.3 3ptms, 2.9 stls, .507 fg, .823 ft, 2.3 to). The addition of James Posey will only make CP3's life easier as he has now has yet another sharpshooter lurking on the wings. Expect Chris to dominate fantasy's #1 spot for many years to come.
There are four consensus top picks in next year's fantasy drafts -- Kobe Bryant is one of them. I heavily considered taking Amare here because of my usual strategy of getting a star big man to build around. However, after toying with the idea for a few moments, I still couldn't pass up Kobe. Kobe's all-around game (28 ppg, 6.3 rebs, 5.4 apg, 1.8 stl) and high percentages (46% FG, 84% FT) are a great foundation to construct a team around. What really drew me towards him was the only five(!) missed games total in the past three seasons. Additionally, the return of Andrew Bynum will give Kobe another post option to throw the ball to. Still at the peak of his prime, Kobe is not only a great piece to build a real-life team around, but he's a great fantasy cornerstone as well.
note: Once again, it is worth saying that Kobe that has a torn ligament in his right pinky, so he will be getting surgery, he should be ready to go once the season starts though.
Last edited by baller crimson on Mon Jul 28, 2008 2:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
Guess which line Amare averaged with Shaq? He must have averaged less points right? Wrong. The addition of Shaq allowed Amare to slide over to PF where he is free to wreak even more havoc on opposing PF's. Nash, Shaq, and Hill all get a year older and their usage rates continue to decrease. Amare will keep asserting himself as the focal point of that team and there is little reason to believe his production will slip as long as Nash is running the point. Microfracture surgery is behind him and Amare has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons.
Easy pick here considering LBJ's 2-category deficiency.
Being number 4 is a pretty easy choice, I simply picked the guy left by the other 3 owners. One could argue Dirk/KG/Marion here but all have been in a bit of a decline and we all know James is young and generally should get even better especially if you pick him and this is the year he raises his FT%. He brings everything to the table, a real stat stuffer. Also a real ironman. As we know his weaknesses are TOs and his FT%. I really don't mind his high TO's. As I have discussed before, many fantasy owners disapear during the season and don't play all their games making TO's less valuable in ways. His FT% is the glaring hole in his game and seems to have settled in at about the 70-73% mark which at 10 shots per game is a pretty decent size negative in the FT% CAT. I really don't think his FT% will go down but owners can alyways hope that this is the year he raises his FT% to something like 75-77% and have a marginal negative effect on the CAT. That would really raise his value and he could compete for the most valuable fantasy player if that were to happen. James is the most well known player in the game and you can always get good value for him in a trade especially for that owner that thinks James is easily the #1 player in fantasy.
Last edited by the one on Mon Jul 28, 2008 12:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I love that challenge of having the 5th pick this year as I definitely feel it is the biggest grab-bag pick in the first round. As we all know, the pick is realistically between 3 guys (sidenote: I'm glad we're talking about undrafted players): Nowitzki, Garnett, and Marion.
Since, like most, I subscribe to the philosophy that the first round is about low-risk rock-solid consistency, I'm slightly hesitant to take the one guy whose situation is least predictable, i.e. Marion. We all know Marion was the #1 consensus roto pick for years but, sadly, it seems those days are likely over. Won't go into much detail here about Marion since I honestly don't know what to make of his situation. Will he stay in Miami? If so, how will Beasley affect his stats? How will a potentially unhealthy Wade affect him? Will he leave Miami? If so, where? Not worth the #5 pick.
As a Celtics fan, I of course love Garnett. Last year he was clocking in at <33 mpg, which is why his value 'dipped.' Those minutes will definitely not go up. With Powe's emergence in the playoffs, Davis likely getting a few more mpg, Perkins improving, O'Bryant likely getting ~12 minutes, and the departure of Posey lessening the amount of small-ball Doc will play, I just don't see Doc playing Garnett over 32 mpg this year. Consistent, but with the potential to lose some value.
With Dirk, you know what you're going to get: an incredibly consistent and durable player, ~24 ppg, ~9 rpg, ~3 apg, low turnovers, great %'s, and ~2.5-2.7 combined 3s/stls/blocks. It's worth noting that with Kidd joining the team, Dirk's %'s, 3s, and scoring went up, as expected. With a full offseason together, Dirk's value can only go up.
As CavemanDoctor alluded to, the consensus decision to make at pick number 6 is between Marion and Garnett, and given that the first 5 picks have gone exactly as I expected they would, that is the decision I'm left with. I see Marion as without a doubt the highest upside player remaining; assuming Garnett stays healthy, it's pretty easy to project a year similar to last with somewhat more limited minutes. It is often said that one cannot win a draft in Round 1, but one can certainly lose it, but in this case I'm going to pay little heed to that warning.
For years, Marion was the consensus number 1 pick, and even last year, given the tumult of switching teams, and the injury, he still managed a top 4 finish in per-game value, several slots ahead of Garnett. The sudden drop-off in FT% (to ~70% after being an 80%+ shooter every season of his career) seems to be a statistical anomaly due to only playing 60ish games and shooting a low volume of FT's. A return to form in this department should aid his value. Marion is still only 30, and although I would be lying if I said the situation in Miami right now does not concern me, I still think he's the best option available at this point.
more than happy to take KG here and, given the previous discussion, i'll just add that I expect Garnett to play around 35 mpg. the only reason I'd expect less would be because of injury, and that's not something that I'm planning for. regardless, the line will be just fine and worthy of the pick here
Elton Brand is one of the few guys whose stats won't falter based on team or personnel changes. He has career averages of 20.3 points, 10.2 boards, 2.7 assists, 2.1 blocks, and almost a steal a game. Shawn Marion and Marcus Camby are the only possible first rounders with fewer TOs than Brand, who essentially is an par with Dirk as far as TOs go. Add on to that, he's going to go about 50% from the floor and 75% from the line and you have a first round ROTO masterpiece.
If this were H2H I would definitely consider another player here, but with Brand being 100% and him having no real deficiencies outside of threes and you have the start of a great team. He can also be paired well with a good guard or a good big, which makes drafting easier.
Assuming he still retains his center eligibility, Brand also becomes extremely flexible.
Stay tuned for my other pick discussions this week since I'm in meetings all week.
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By avoiding injuries last year Baron vaulted into top 10 cumulative value and I'm willing to gamble that he stays healthy again running the show in Los Angeles. A few other options worth mentioning, but Caron, Dwayne and Gilbert all come with injury concerns as well. Give me the man who played in all 82 games with a 21.8 / 2.1 / 4.7 / 7.6 / 2.3 line.