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AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:26 pm

bokzg wrote:Yeah, I've been targeting Chauncey for the past couple of seasons for the same reason, but I figured that the secret had been kept long enough ;)


This must mean you're both targeting Jose Calderon this year.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby ChipaDub » Mon Aug 11, 2008 7:38 pm

silentjim wrote:
bokzg wrote:Yeah, I've been targeting Chauncey for the past couple of seasons for the same reason, but I figured that the secret had been kept long enough ;)


This must mean you're both targeting Jose Calderon this year.



I'm actually targeting him more so for other reasons, but yes it would be nice to get a good value on Billups or Calderon. One thing I've learned is to not let a predetermined strategy cause you to reach for certain players. You have to be ready to take advantage of what comes your way in terms of draft position and who is taken ahead of you.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby bokzg » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:34 pm

silentjim wrote:
bokzg wrote:Yeah, I've been targeting Chauncey for the past couple of seasons for the same reason, but I figured that the secret had been kept long enough ;)


This must mean you're both targeting Jose Calderon this year.


Shhhhhh! 8-o
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby phx_2008_champs » Wed Aug 13, 2008 6:37 pm

I'm in a 15 cat money league:
FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, PTS, 3PTM, 3PT%, AST, TO, A/T, OREB, DREB, REB, BLK, STL
(How did I memorize that from last year?)

I punt 3PTM and TO's. 3 point shooters, although maybe getting a good amount of points, don't make as many Field Goals in order to get those points. Thus, taking away from your FGM. They obviously hurt your FG% as well. By punting TO's and not A/T, I'm still looking to pick up assists and keep a high A/T ratio.

3PTM and TO have always seemed to be the obvious punt categories for me in this league. The trick is to punt the cats that enable you to create the most value at all other cats.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby angels7777 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:23 pm

nice article.... I actually play in a league with A/TO and took Billups for 2 straight years, finishing 1 and 2..... in my 3rd year someone overdrafted Billups and and I ended up finishing my lowest ever in my league.... Calderon should be a Billups equal and maybe even better in terms of value and draft position...
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby evoVIII » Sun Aug 17, 2008 11:15 pm

AST/TO may not be a fair category to blanket all players with. Of course this would apply to PG's or players you expect to get your assists from. Aside from Brad Miller, AST:TO isn't something you want to really factor too much into for big men. Sometimes I like to look at BLK:TO or STL:TO. Hell the Eddy Curry Line is something I like to use as well. This is a nod to you Mbuser.

I'm a fan of lesser known efficient low TO players. From Brent Barry when I first started Fbball to Anthony Parker.

The other lesser known problem that plagues fantasy leagues, is that managers give up mid season when it looks like the top 4-6 teams are being locked up or for lack of interest. It's well known that drafting is half the fun and in many public leagues, managers disappear after the draft as well. Inadvertently this skews the TO rankings near the top. You well chosen TO efficient team but if two guys bench all their players, they effective squeezed two points from you in a Roto league and furthermore enhanced the guy who decided to tank TO's in favour of stat stuffers.

This has been a pet peeve of mine and even in cafe leagues, this will happen. So indirectly TO's or for this thread AST:TO is severely impacted in actual applications.

Mind you all I've mentioned is primarily related to roto leagues with default settings.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby tianyi86 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:10 am

ChipaDub wrote:Shhh, Chauncy's been winning leagues this way for a few years now for me!

In regards to Nash, I'm actually not that big on him here. As a whole his stats compared to TO effect aren't so good. Not only that, he usually doesn't do better that 3 ast/to. Chauncey averages roughly 3.7 over the last three years. Nash's ast/to is very good, but not in the highest echelon and when you consider the amount of points/3pt/stls etc. per TO it's not that great a value either. When executing the "do well in Ast and TO" strategy, these fine lines determine your success in my experience. It's pretty difficult to pull of high value in both, some experts have even written articles discussed here at the cafe that you should only expect to do well in one or the other and build around that. I'm with you though, it can be a great way to win leagues.


I think nash's value is just in line. Sure billups has better ast/to but pure quantity also matters. Its the same argument with an 85% ft shooter who takes 600 fta is worth more than a 90% shooter taking 300 fta. With nash, you can pretty much avoid another pg while you cant with billups, so the overall ast/to ratio of your guards is probably lower. Nash's fg% also makes him a huge plus.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby ChipaDub » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:03 am

tiany, what up good to see you around.

With nash, you can pretty much avoid another pg while you cant with billups, so the overall ast/to ratio of your guards is probably lower.


In my experience this isn't accurate. The players you'll more than likely accumulate after Nash won't have high enough ast per TO to accommodate the strategy we're talking about.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby Mimicker7 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 7:06 am

Looking at AST/TO ratio is important, but it's already included in BBM. So if you use BBM, there's no need in worrying about AST/TO ratio specifically, or bumping up players because you think their AST/TO ratio is somehow being forgotten in calculating their value.

There is a reason why Lebron is good despite his TO's, but his AST/TO ratio isn't the whole story. Players like Marion and Battier that you mentioned do have lower AST/TO ratios than Lebron, but that leads to a false conclusion that Lebron has better numbers than these players in AST and TOs combined and contributes to your team more in ASTs+TOs combined than these players. But this is not true. If you had a league where ASTs and TOs were the only categories, you'd still be better off drafting Marion and Battier over Lebron, despire Lebron's better AST/TO ratio. Let me explain:

If you run an analysis of the top-156 players last year (this is the amount of players in a 12-person, 13-round league), you will find that the avg amount of assists is 3.29 and the avg amount of TOs is 1.87. Further, you'll see that the standard deviation for assists is 2.23 and standard deviation for TOs is 0.78.

Lebron averages 7.2 assists and 3.4 TOs.
Marion averages 2.2 assists and 1.4 TOs.
Battier averages 1.9 assists and 1.0 TOs.

First, if you take the AST/TO ratio, you'll get:

Lebron has a 2.12 AST/TO ratio.
Marion has a 1.57 AST/TO ratio.
Battier has a 1.9 AST/TO ratio.

Again, it looks like if I was in an AST and TO only league, I'd want Lebron on my team because his AST/TO ratio is better. But this is not true when you look deeper into the stats.

Let's go back and calculate how much each player contributes in each category relative to the average player. To do this, we calculate how many standard deviations away each player is in each category from the average in that category. Let's do this now:

Just a refresher:
Avg assists for these players was 3.29, and std deviation was 2.23.
Avg TOs for these players was 1.87 and std deviation was 0.78.

Lebron averages 7.2 assists and 3.4 TOs.
Lebron is +1.75 standard deviations above the average player in assists.
Lebron is -1.96 standard deviations below the average player in TOs.
Lebron's combined standard deviations from the norm in these two categories is -0.21.
(i.e. he's worse than the average player in these two categories combined.)

Marion averages 2.2 assists and 1.4 TOs.
Marion is -0.49 standard deviations below the average player in assists.
Marion is +0.6 standard deviations above the average in TOs.
Marion's combined standard deviations from the norm in these two categories is +0.11.
(i.e. he's better than the average player in these two categories combined.)

Battier averages 1.9 assists and 1 TO.
Battier is -0.62 standard deviations below the average player in assists.
Battier is 1.12 standard deviations below the average player in TOs.
Battier's combined standard deviations from the norm in these two categories is +0.5.
(i.e. he's better than the average player in these two categories combined.)

So, AST/TO ratio can be a bit misleading, since it doesn't tell the whole story.

I think a better thing to look at might be PTS+ASTS/TO ratio. This is the kind of thing that rewards players like Lebron whose TOs are justified by his other stats. And, I think that assists are not the only thing correlated with turnovers, but it's also points. Mainly, TO's are usually correlated with how much a player handles the ball, and the other measure of how much a player holds the ball is points, not just assists. Of course, points and assists do not have an equality of numbers (i.e. 1 point does not equal 1 assist), so you need to do some standardization before you compute a number like PTS+AST/TO ratio. Using the same method as above (where we computed the number of standard deviations from the norm in each category and added them together), we get these numbers with PTS, ASTS, TOs combined:

Lebron: +2.68 std deviations above the norm
Marion: +0.3 std deviations above the norm
Battier: -0.52 std deviations below the norm

I believe that PTS+ASTS/TO method illustrates better what you were trying to say in this post. The AST/TO ratio method only really rewards pure point guards like Nash, and again, doesn't actually represent whose better for you in those two categories combined. Because Lebron, even with his decent AST/TO ratio, is worse for you in those two categories than players with lower AST/TO ratios because he doesn't get enough more assists than the average player to make up for his over average number of TOs.
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Re: AST/TO Ratio: The Sleeper Category

Postby ChipaDub » Fri Aug 29, 2008 11:41 am

Mimicker7 wrote:Looking at AST/TO ratio is important, but it's already included in BBM. So if you use BBM, there's no need in worrying about AST/TO ratio specifically, or bumping up players because you think their AST/TO ratio is somehow being forgotten in calculating their value.


In my experience this isn't necessarily true either. BBM doesn't calculate its values based on the stats actually scored in your league. While there will be a common thread of particular players, a significant chunk of stats will weigh in on BBMs ranks, but not be pertinent to your leagues scoring totals whatsoever. This assertion of "no need in worrying" is leaving a valuable tool to victory out of your potential arsenal. It should not be overlooked; ast:to can be a solid strategy to victory. A game within the game.

Your examples of comparing Lebron is one way to look at it, but I'm not sure it's of much use. I think we all know how many leagues have been won with Marion's stats of the past few years and not Lebron's. I see where you're going with a Battier comparison, but he's not drafted anywhere near those two, as Nash and Billups drafted near each other are as well. Too illustrate the point I was making in using Billups as the prototypical example of the ast/to strategy I'd use Nash and Billup's seasons I benefited most from the strategy, '06 and '07. In 2007 Billups average value effect of ast and TO on his total bbm score was 1.87+0.03= 1.90, Nash 3.99 - 2.34 = 1.65. In '06 it was 2.62-.32 = 2.30 CB, 3.49-2.22 = 1.28 SN.
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