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Re: ***expansion***

Postby KalElen » Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:16 pm

thanx for making the list. i'm not as opposed to the 50M limit as i was, but i will counter your argument. some of those guys cost serious money and expansion teams will be limited by reduced cap. also i was thinking of teams losing 1 player each in expansion if there are 2 teams and players if there are 4, so all that talent would be dispresed over 4 teams not 2. still it's a formidable list. anyway none of my initial opinions are set to stone. that's why we are having all these discussion threads...
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Re: ***min offers rule***

Postby Fenris-77 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:13 pm

The problem with using the 'real life' MLE is that real NBA teams have a lot more options open to them to manipulate salary, whereas we do not. So to compensate our rules need to be both elegantly simple yet flexible enough to get the job done.

I just don't like the direction this whole min bid thing is going. I'm 100% sure I don't want a team's cap situation to win the tie mind you, but I don;t think the basic idea in place is really broken. It didn't work in the draft because the system is dependent on previous results, but next year we'll have those. We'll have ties to break too, at all sorts of levels - I can see the max, full MLE, and the min all contributing there. Really, we're discussing all those scenarios, and the resulting rules should probably cover the min to the max and everything in between. At that point I think the points system works just fine. I don;t see any reason to prevent two teams from offering the max, and thus don't see any reason why they should be prevented form offering the min.

I'm more than happy to go along with the notion that FCFS no longer applies. We have the time to edit the rules to the point where that won't be an implied factor, and it does make things even based on time zone. The issues we had on that front were unique to the auction IMO, and won't have the same impact moving forward.

I think the MLE is really just a details problem at this point. I think most people will agree to a value of 5-6M and with the general idea that only teams above the cap can use it. Part of the problem there is that we're not using contract extensions or restricted free agency in any meaningful way, and both those have a huge impact on how the MLE gets handled (in real life).

I think having it count against the cap, period, is the easiest way to go. GMs who need the space for a bigger deal can renounce it at any time of course. My problem there is that without restricted free agency or Bird Rights we don't really have any mechanics that can raise the dollar value of salaries above the soft cap anyway (aside from rookies and salary creep anyway).

On top of that there's going to be a disconnect between how salary works over the first 2-3 years and how it works after that when teams will all have a more normal amount of restricted free agency. I think that in order for the rules set to work, it needs to be designed and written not for next season, but for furture seasons, if you catch my drift. I think that we made need to somehow simulate those salary conditions in order to write the best rules possible.

In order to do that I have suggestions. First, that any player from the 2007, 2008 and 2009 draft classes who is currently signed to a one or two year deal be considered a 'rookie' and thus a restricted free agent at the end of his deal. Second, I propose a limited sort of Bird Rights which will apply to any player who's played 3 years or more without becoming a FA. Bird Rights, for our purposes, allow a team to match an offered contract without regard to the soft cap. The points system would still apply in full though, since I'd imagine we want to maintain a more fluid player situation.

The rules thread is a little vague on what exactly goes into resigning your own free agents. It suggest that it might be the case that you'd envisioned all FAs in a sort of Bird scenario, since you say that "resigning own free agents doesn't affect mle". Does that mean that a team can resign it's own free agents without reference to the soft cap? It could, since the MLE only comes into play at the cap threshold. Perhaps you could further explain how you saw that working before I wax any more poetic about Free Agent rights.
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Re: ***expansion***

Postby Fenris-77 » Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:23 pm

They're not really all that expensive really - there's a bunch of guys in the 10-11M range, but a lot of them are substantially cheaper, which is a function of how our auction went (very top heavy). The players on that list unfortunately represent some of the best value on those teams. There's also a strong list of guys that didn't appear who rank sort of right below those guys.

As I;m sure you;re aware that system does the most damage to teams like ours too, but I;m not going to press that point too much since it sounds self interested.

I tell you what - give me an expansion team salary figure to work with (45m, whatever) and I'll do a draft for 2 teams and we'll see what they look like. Are we talking about 8 expansion players a piece? Plus two rooks from the upcoming draft, and I suppose min guys to fill to 12 or 15. I'll ignore the rooks and min guys, but lets maybe take a closer look at what the teams would actually look like based on the above list. We can compare to some of the current rosters minus those players and see what we think. I think some hands on testing is the best way to proceed here.
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Re: ***expansion***

Postby KalElen » Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:32 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:They're not really all that expensive really - there's a bunch of guys in the 10-11M range, but a lot of them are substantially cheaper, which is a function of how our auction went (very top heavy). The players on that list unfortunately represent some of the best value on those teams. There's also a strong list of guys that didn't appear who rank sort of right below those guys.

As I;m sure you;re aware that system does the most damage to teams like ours too, but I;m not going to press that point too much since it sounds self interested.

I tell you what - give me an expansion team salary figure to work with (45m, whatever) and I'll do a draft for 2 teams and we'll see what they look like. Are we talking about 8 expansion players a piece? Plus two rooks from the upcoming draft, and I suppose min guys to fill to 12 or 15. I'll ignore the rooks and min guys, but lets maybe take a closer look at what the teams would actually look like based on the above list. We can compare to some of the current rosters minus those players and see what we think. I think some hands on testing is the best way to proceed here.

agreed. i was thinking 45m soft cap (including rooks), min guys wouldn't affect those numbers. if you need any help let me know. also i was thinking 8 players per team in expansion regardless of it's 2 or 4 teams which means 1 or 2 players subtracted from every team
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Re: ***expansion***

Postby Fenris-77 » Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:35 am

Hmm. OK then - I'm going to call the rooks an even 4M each (just for simplicity)

Joe Johnson 10.5
Rudy Gay 6.5
Russel Westbrook 3.7
Emeka Okafor 5.5
Jameer Nelson 7.4
Boris Diaw 2.6 40.2
Hedo Turkoglu 3
Luol Deng 1.25
40.45M + a rookie at 4M

James Harden .5
Anthony Randolph 11
Tony Parker 6
Joakim Noah 1.6 33.35
Mike Redd 4.5
Andrew Bogut 3.5
Mario Chalmers 4.25
Mike Beasley 4.5
40.35M + a rookie at 4M

Honestly, I think those teams look awfully good for expansion teams. Even without a top 6 draft pick to go with. We can solicit opinion and see what the rest of the league thinks.
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Re: ***expansion***

Postby KalElen » Wed Oct 28, 2009 11:44 am

ok i'll agree with you here. 40M cap protection gives expansion teams too much talent because they get a lot of bargain players. feel like doing another one for 50M? i'm still not sure we should consider going over 50M
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Re: ***expansion***

Postby Fenris-77 » Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:05 pm

Yeah, sure I can I'll tab something up sometime today. I can already tell you it's probably a much more reasonable picture. Guys like Randolph and JJ get protected (I think) and a lot of that young value there gets protected too (guys like Westbrook, Noah, Beasley, Chalmers, Gay). I'm actually curious to see if 50M might be too much.

I think I;m going to use that spreadsheet you linked to this time round. ;-D
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Re: do you have the best commish in the world?

Postby Fenris-77 » Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:08 pm

Would the best commish in the world be willing to upload another version saved as a simple XLS instead of XLSX? That way those of use with older versions on Excel can still open the darned thing. :-D
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Re: do you have the best commish in the world?

Postby KalElen » Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:20 pm

done ;-D
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Re: ***expansion***

Postby KalElen » Wed Oct 28, 2009 2:23 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:Yeah, sure I can I'll tab something up sometime today. I can already tell you it's probably a much more reasonable picture. Guys like Randolph and JJ get protected (I think) and a lot of that young value there gets protected too (guys like Westbrook, Noah, Beasley, Chalmers, Gay). I'm actually curious to see if 50M might be too much.

I think I;m going to use that spreadsheet you linked to this time round. ;-D

jj won't get into 50M because of contract frontloading. definitely use the spreadsheet, it will make the task much easier for you
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