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2010 - 2011 Season

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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby Nene » Fri Sep 17, 2010 5:04 am

Just did this monster write up. I hope you guys enjoy it ;-) :-D

Stinky Lynx

Premier Players: Chris Paul, Stephen Curry

Upcoming Stars: Amir Johnson, Marcus Thornton, Nic Batum, Westbrook, Hickson, A. Randolph, George Hill, Serge Ibaka

Solid Vets: AK47, Troy Murphy

Bench Fodder: Ben Gordon

It appears that Lynx went for "upside" for a lot of his picks. Amir Johnson, Hickson, and Ibaka have shown flashes, but there is no guarantee that any of those three develops into a successful fantasy player. I'm not saying they were bad picks, but they were certainly risky ones. Anthony Randolph and George Hill have shown more than flashes, but again, with them you are still banking heavily on upside. Marcus Thornton and Batum both should be studs (Batum more in fantasy, Thornton more in real life), as they have both shown they have what it takes to be successful long term starters.

AK47 and Murphy are no big white stiffs, despite being big and white (lol). Both bring unique facets to a fantasy team (Murphy the 3s from a fc spot and AK47 with the steals, blks, and occasional big assists games). Ben Gordon used to be a decent fantasy player, and with Rip Hamilton only getting older, Gordon may get the minutes needed to produce. So he's a pretty good last round guy.

Ultimately, it's tough to gauge Lynx's team for this year. So much of it depends on potential and upside. Moving forward, you could reasonably say that Randolph and Thornton will become solid keepers, but right now they are still in the potential category too.

phx_2008

Premier Players: Andre Iguodala & Carmelo Anthony

Upcoming: Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, John Wall, JaVale McGee

Solid Vets: Kevin Love, Jarrett Jack, Varejao, Ariza

Bench Fodder: Darko, Dorrell Wright

It's easy to see when you look at phx's upcoming players that he is building for the future. He has three of the top four draft selections from the 2010 NBA draft! Impressive! Moreover, even if only two of them pan out, he will still have a solid five keepers going into next year, assuming Jrue Holiday plays the way he did toward the end of last year. I could see his keepers next year being Iggy, Melo, Love, Holiday, Wall; but Wesley Johnson and Evan Turner have the potential to crack the keeper core too. Really, this team cannot compete for a top three spot this year, but moving forward, he has a great shot at building a true powerhouse. I mean, seriously, 3 of the top 4 picks in last year's draft? Even if only 2 of the 3 pan out, he will have made out like a bandit for a rebuilding team.

Caveman Doctor

Premier Players: Wade, Bosh, David Lee, Josh Smith

Upcoming: Darren Collison, Ty Thomas

Solid Vets: Ginobili, Terry, Scola, Landry, Mike Miller

Bench Fodder: Linas Kleiza

It's obvious when you look at Doctor's team that he is in win-now mode, but that doesn't mean his team won't contend for a long time to come, as all four of his premier players are in or are entering their prime. Moreover, three of his top four are first round picks, and Josh Smith is a late first/early second pick, so it's easy to see why Doctor's team was in contention last year. Doctor didn't really make any risky picks. Ty Thomas would be the only risky one, but a report said he is in fantastic shape, so if he can stay in games mentally (a problem for him at times), he could make a huge impact for the Bobcats and for Doctor's fantasy team. All five of his "solid vets" are near-locks to continue their current level of production.

Darren Collison could be the key to this team. If he is a legit 20-10 guard, as I believe he might be, then Doctor will have another near first round pick. I know it's asking a lot for Collison to put up the numbers he did last year in New Orleans on a different team and for a full year, but the Pacers are better than last year's Hornets (hard to believe as bad as Indiana is) and assists should actually be even easier for Collison. I don't see how this team could finish any lower than fourth, and it has a great shot at winning the entire thing.

NENE

Premier Players: Kobe Bryant and Danny Granger, Boozer (borderline "solid vet")

Upcoming: Noah, Millsap, Galinari, Blatche, Terrence Williams

Solid Vets: Andre Miller

Bench Fodder: Barbosa, Speights, James Harden

I tried to stay in win now mode this year. With two first round picks on my team, it wouldn't make sense to do any kind of rebuilding project, though I did consider reaching for Cousins at 1.09. It's nice to have 5 guys that are still on their way up, and it could be said to be 7, if you count Speights & Harden, though they will likely not crack the keeper core any time soon for any team. Like Lynx's team, a lot of how well mine does depends on how much my upcoming players improve. I need for Galinari and Millsap to become studs, and Noah to at least maintain the rebounds and blocks from last year. I am also pretty intrigued by Terrence Williams, especially in light of the 25 pt, 13 reb, 10 assist game he had last year. That was impressive and shows he has the potential to make multi cat contributions. I think my team has a legit chance at finishing top 3, but it will be difficult to win unless Millsap and Galinari take the needed leap in production. There is also a good chance that I make a deal for a premier point guard at some point before or early during the season.

Baller

Premier Players: Amare Stoudemire, Al Jefferson, Brook Lopez

Upcoming: Aaron Brooks, Robin Lopez, Tiago Splitter, Jennings

Solid Vets: Felton, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson

Bench Fodder: Villanueva, Dunleavy, T-Mac

Baller's premier players are all late first - early second round picks, so he does lack a go-to stud player that is untouchable, though an argument could be made that Amare returns to that form (remember, he was once a top 7 pick). Al Jefferson should return to form in Utah, after another off season of rest and rehab for his knee. Besides that, I think Deron Williams will be a much better facilitator than Flynn and Sessions were.

I like 3 of his 4 upcomers. Brooks has crazy potential, as does Jennings; though both need to improve their shot selection to take the next step -- at least in fantasy. Splitter could be ready to contribute right away, and I wanted to draft him, but I slept too long on him.

For Baller to compete for a top 3 spot, he is going to need the following to happen:

- Jameer Nelson plays 70 games or more (dubious)
- Amare returns to top 7 form
- Jefferson returns to form
- Rashard Lewis plays the amount of minutes he did 2 years ago

If these four things happen, Baller has a shot at finishing top three. However, all four of those things are highly questionable, as is baller's fate, consequently.

Onizuka

Premier Players: Joe Johnson, Tim Duncan, Monta Ellis

Upcoming: Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin

Solid Vets: Stuckey, Maggette, Kevin Garnett, Okafor, Artest

Bench Fodder: Battier, Diaw

In a category of his own: Yao

The recent news that Yao Ming will only play 24 minutes a game - tops - and that he won't play in back to back games has to be a bit disappointing and disheartening for Onizuka. It's hard to imagine Yao can post top 60 value playing only half the game. That doesn't nail shut the coffin on Onizuka's team, but it definitely doesn't help, as Yao returning to top form would have. Onizuka lacks any true first round picks, but Johnson and Duncan are both very solid, as is Ellis (will he remain in the Gold Mine of Fantasy that golden state is, though?). Tyreke Evans is a superstud in the making, as only the fourth 20-5-5 rookie ever. While I don't think he'll be as good as Oscar, Jordan and Lebron (the other 3 to do it), he should certainly be a top 25 player either this year, or next. Blake Griffin also has a lot of potential, though statistically I see him as a poor free throw shooting version of Zach Randolph (I say "statistically" because their games are radically different). I see this team as pretty mediocre and I believe it will probably finish middle of the pack. With that in mind, it might make sense to deal Duncan and Garnett for younger players, especially later in the season. There's no sense in plodding along in mediocrity by keeping declining vets when your team can't challenge for a top 3 trophy.

mr west

Premier Players: Kidd, Deron

Upcoming: Jeff Green, Hibbert, DeRozan

Solid Vets: Stephen Jackson, Jamison (could return to Premier form), Brand, Bynum (somewhat an upcoming player), Kaman

Bench Fodder: Conley, Walker (somewhat up and comer), Livingston

This team has 4 capable centers (Hibbert, Brand, Bynum, and Kaman), so it should be solid in both rebounds and blocks, perhaps too solid. A move for a couple three point shooters would give this team a much better shot at moving up in the standings. Jamison, Jackson, and DeRozan (this year, as he has been working on his shot) should all provide a little help from beyond the arc, but more is needed to prevent a very low finish in that category. Assists should be pretty strong, and could be even stronger if Livingston secures a starting role in Charlotte. Bynum and Brand are both injury risks and need to stay healthy for mr west's team to play to its full potential. I think this team is good enough to finish middle of the pack, and it has some solid depth, but I don't think it can finish top 5. That said, Hibbert and Derozan could both end up being solid pieces for the future; Hibbert moreso than DeRozan, but Derozan has the ability and atheticism to become a top player in time.

evoV

Premier Players: Rudy Gay, Bogut

Upcoming: Oden, Mayo, Eric Gordon, Reggie Williams

Solid Vets: Jason Richardson, David West, Dalembert, Tony Parker

Bench Fodder: Dj Augustin, Jason Thompson, Casspi (nearly an upcoming, but not quite yet)

When your best players are middle of the third round picks (Gay and Bogut), you are going to have some problems winning a champinoship. I'm not sure what evoV's plan is, but it should have been to start building for the future. Oden, Mayo, and Gordon are all solid up and comers, but when you're not challenging for a title, you should aim to have as many up and comers as possible. Going the route Stinky Lynx did would have made the most sense, and I think Evov should look to trade away Richardson and West for a player with tremendous upside. This team is likely going to finish in the bottom three this year, and EvOv should immediately start making moves with the next year (2011-2012 season) in mind.

Tyrants

Premier: Nash, Gerald Wallace, Bargnani (could be an upcoming too)

Upcoming: None

Solid Vets: Arenas (could be premier), Salmons, Aldridge, Z Bo, Nene, Harrington, Drew Gooden

Bench Fodder: Udrih (doesn't belong on a fantasy roster at all), Francisco Garcia

Tyrants has the best group of Solid Vets of any team in the league, and if Arenas returns to anything like his former first round self, Tyrants is in to shock the league (Remember, Arenas used to be a mid first round pick at one point). I'm very high on Salmons and Nene (imagine that), and Harrington should be especially valuable early in the year while Birdman and K Mart are injured. Trading for Bargnani was a nice move by Tyrants, as it will give him much needed threes. It should also be interesting to see how Nash fairs with less playing time and Hedo doing some of the play making (taking assists away from Nash). While I hate Z Bo in real life purposes, in fantasy he's great. I expect Tyrants to eventually drop Udrih and Garcia for whomever stands out off the free agents early on, and if he's quick to act on whomever that is, it will help his team a lot. With so many solid players, I think Tyrants should challenge for a top 5 spot.

saldogg

Premier: Rondo, Durant, LeBron, Dwight Howard

Upcoming: Cousins, Rose, Beaubois, Monroe

Solid Vets: Turkoglu, Odom, Frye, Chandler

Bench Fodder: Calderon (Could be valuable if he's dealt to a team like Charlotte)

Durant and Lebron? Seriously? saldogg, by virtue of drafting Durant as a rookie, managed to snag two of the top three fantasy players, which is obviously going to make any team an instant contender. Dwight Howard is near poison in roto, but Lebron is not a great free throw shooter either, so "punting" assists actually can work out here, as long as saldogg dominates the other 8 categories, which with the exception of turnovers, he should. Getting Rondo from my team last year is a great help, as saldogg needed an elite point guard (if he "needed" anything). I don't really understand the Cousins pick, but since I took him in the Bonanza rather early, too (with the hope of him replacing Pierce as a keeper - I'm digressing), I hope it works out for the best. saldogg is the odds on favorite to repeat as champion.

jasonuoft

Premier: Billups, Dirk, Pau Gasol

Upcoming: Marc Gasol, Beasley (sort of)

Solid Vets: Caron Butler, Mo Williams, Deng, Baron Davis, JR Smith, Marion, Biedrins

Bench Fodder: None?!

jasonuoft has three top 15 picks (Billups is around 15th in my book), and two top 10 picks (Gasol & Dirk). Having Marc Gasol is a luxury, as I think he's going to be a great center as time goes on (though I still wouldn't have dealt Nene for him). Beasley is a big question mark, and Tolliver could beat him out for the starting role, which would deal a bit of a blow (albeit not much) to jasonuoft's team. I read that Baron Davis weighed 260 lbs this offseason, which is why I stayed away from him, but jasonuoft was unlucky enough not to know that. It's harder for players to keep the weight off as they age, and I am thinking Baron Davis is going to start falling off as a player this year, rapidly. Mo Williams could be a nice piece if he and Jamison can get something going on a decimated Cavs team. Biedrins also could be nice if he stays healthy and gets a boost in minutes. With a solid roster through and through, I think this team can compete for a top five slot. All three of the premier players on this team are ironmen of sorts, so there really isn't many questions regarding this team's ability to at least finish a little better than middle of the pack.

barrec

Premier: Roy, Horford, Pierce

Upcoming: Morrow, Lou Williams

Solid Vets: Devin Harris, Kevin Martin, Camby, Haywood, Ray Allen, Jamal Crawford, Okur

Bench Fodder: Birdman (though I love this guy!).

barrec got great value by snagging Pierce first overall in the redraft. He really should have been a keeper on some team, but to get him in the draft strengthened barrec's team immensely. He does have some injury concerns with Camby, Okur, Birdman, and Kevin Martin, so that is a big question mark, since it can often only take 2 major injuries to take a team out of contention. barrec's team lacks any first round studs, but nearly makes up for it with the solid depth of the veterans. The problem with this team is that there isn't really any potential for it to "blow up." All of the vets have reached their peak, and I think barrec may have played it a little TOO SAFE in the draft. I would expect a 7th or 8th place finish from this team, and it may make sense to deal some of his depth for a top tier keeper late in the season with a contending team.
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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby Lilstinkylynx » Fri Sep 17, 2010 5:22 am

Great analysis and read Nene. That goes for you to phx_2008_champs. ;-D
It is great to see that for the most part all of us are in agreeance about top, middle, and bottom tiered teams [Especially Ballers hopelessness]. That is the best part of doing cafe based leagues... the competition is just better. Loving the dedication in the league as well to do all these write ups.
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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby CavemanDoctor » Fri Sep 17, 2010 5:48 am

Awesome, awesome read Nene. ;-D ;-D Kudos to you, sir.
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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby barrec » Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:58 pm

Wow! Amazing write-ups to all so far. I don't think I could say much more - particularly about other teams or the draft in general. But I'll be happy to throw in my two cents on The Batmen:

PG: Devan Harris (via trade)
SG: Kevin Martin (keeper)
G: Brandon Roy (keeper)
SF: Paul Pierce
PF: Al Horford (keeper)
F: Anthony Morrow
C: Marcus Camby (via trade)
C: Brendan Haywood
UTIL: Ray Allen (via trade)
UTIL: Jamal Crawford (via trade)
Bench: Louis Williams
Bench: Mehmet Okur
Bench: Chris Anderson

Strengths: SG. Lots of threes, FT% and even a pretty good FG%. It's a fairly efficient team which was a goal of mine throughout the draft and trading. When I joined the league and took over a team, I didn't want to necessarily blow up the team, but I wasn't shy about moving players around to get a solid base. As it turned out, that base was strong in SG.

Weaknesses: I think of this team as a very high risk/high reward group. Lots of vets past their peaks, many of which have had injury issues, and no real depth to speak of (except of course at SG). Even my younger stars - Roy and Marten - have had injury issues. Best case scenario (like most teams) is that each player lives up to career averages and avoids injury. If that happens I could see cracking the top 5. If that doesn't happen - which I find much more likely - I feel completely unattached to most of the players and will be happy to blow it up; I'll trade a serviceable player (borderline keeper perhaps) for a player with upside, and try to move up in the draft next year.

Draft: This was my first offline draft and my goal was more or less best player available based on my position needs. Flattered I got props for Anthony Morrow (which I am very pleased about) and am right to take criticism for taking Lou Williams early. Admittedly a lot of my research relied on last year's stats and I'm, uh, still honing my stat prediction skills. Also wasn't up to speed on Okur, and though that will hurt to start, he might be a great shot to the team when he comes back and/or a an interesting trade piece late in the season.

Overall, the team has come a long way since Stoudamire for Marten :-D and am excited to get the season going! The draft was great - I love the activity and expertise in the league.
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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby Lilstinkylynx » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:44 pm

Great write up Barrec ;-D

I am in the market for a sg/sf eligible player in the future if you feel like moving any of them. ;-)
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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby phx_2008_champs » Fri Sep 17, 2010 6:50 pm

Wow, Nene! 8-o

Nice write-up. ;-D
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Re: 2010 - 2011 Draft Discussion

Postby wakeupmrwest » Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:32 pm

First off, I understand the whole rebuilding concept. You look around at the other teams and notice that they seem a lot better than yours so instead of play for this season you play for future seasons. That just doesn't sound very fun to me. I'd rather struggle and try to compete with a mediocre team then play out an entire season not trying to win. So every year, no matter what my keepers look like I draft trying to win. Admittedly this is a flawed concept but I'd rather lose trying. With that said here's my analysis:

Top two teams heading into the season are saldoggs and Caveman. No arguing a solid set of keepers made this possible. They both have stacked rosters but there are holes and in roto holes can be exploited more than if it were H2H. If this were H2H saldogg might go undefeated. But since its roto you never know if a more balanced squad can squeak in between one of those guys or make it to the top.

Nene, Tyrants and jasonuft all have potential to threaten for the title and are an emerging player away from being elite.

The bottom in my opinion consists of phnx2008champs who has thrown in the towel this season opting to choose keepers and draft for next season. Lilstynk's team is really guard heavy. Relying more heavily on guards than forwards is tough to do in roto. The team has assets, Curry and Paul but is extremely weak outside the top 3 players. Onizuka's team just seems old. like Duncan Garnett Yao and Maggette might have all been on the all star team together 8 years ago. But it does have some quality players and will probably be in the middle group.

As for my own team I grade it middle of the pack.

PG: Jason Kidd
SG: Stephen Jackson
G: Deron Williams
SF: Jeff Green
PF: Antawn Jamison
F: Elton Brand
C: Roy Hibbert
C: Andrew Bynum
UTIL: Chris Kaman
UTIL: Mike Conley
Bench: DeMar DeRozan
Bench: Bill Walker
Bench: Shaun Livingston

My keeper core was average compared to the rest but that doesn't really matter to me. Deron, Kidd, Westbrook, Jamison, Green. I drafted pretty much BPA style but I did take into account potential rather than just rely on past years statistics. That's why I reached a bit for Hibbert and took SJax first round because he'll basically be the primary ball handler now that Felton is gone. Augustin is more of a shooter than a true PG. I had 3 of the truest PG's as keepers and opted to move an emerging Westbrook and R. Lopez for Bynum and Kaman to help shore up big man stats. I think if Buynum stays healtHy (which is a huge if) I made out really good on the trade. Brand has old bones but the new coaching staff love him in PHI so anything can happen. Jamison is the man in CLE now which doesn't say much cause the team is back to square one but he'll have a lot of opportunity to score that's for sure. The rest of my picks were fliers. Conley is a young PG that hasn't panned out as of yet but he's a starting PG on a good Memphis team and he still is young enough to make strides. I'm hoping Bill Walker cracks the starting lineup in NY. If so he could be in for some really efficient stat lines. DeRozan is going to get major run in T.O. and he improved every month in the NBA. Being a Raptors fan its a bit of a homer pick but he takes the ball to the basket and his jump shot is improving. Shaun Livingston will be the first player I drop barring another player getting injured.
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How about these last 3 managers sign up?

Postby Nene » Sat Sep 18, 2010 10:59 am

League # 13008

Password: iheartcamby


GO GO GO GO GO, let's sign up so the rosters can be inputted and we can get started with trades and such! ;-D
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Re: How about these last 3 managers sign up?

Postby phx_2008_champs » Sat Sep 18, 2010 4:28 pm

Just signed up. ;-D
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Re: How about these last 3 managers sign up?

Postby Lilstinkylynx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 1:31 am

Two more to go... who is GTO?
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