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Re: batum vs george

Postby jphanned » Wed Aug 15, 2012 3:19 am

The Pacers return the exact same rotation (swap Augustin for Collison) this year, and George projects to have a similar role to what he had last year. You say George is the riskier of the two for a variety of reasons. What are they, exactly? And why does "doing more with less help around him" matter? If you're looking at the two individually in a vacuum, there isn't a doubt who the better offensive talent is. It's George - he at least has an expansive arsenal he can use to attack and create on his own.
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Re: batum vs george

Postby Fenris-77 » Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:40 pm

The Pacers do return their whole rotation, but you mentioned the possibility of Granger getting dealt and what that might mean for George and I was just adding that the potential there isn't necessarily all good - not all players get better with more usage.

As for the variety of reasons, here they are:

1. George is a younger player with a less established history of production (and therefor a greater chance of bust or moderate failure to return value on what I expect to be a pretty high pick.

2. People say his natural position is SF, but so far his production there has actually been a little worse than at SG.

3. An increase in minutes and usage could see substantial fall off in rebounding and defensive production. Not for sure, but it's not uncommon either with players who take a minutes and usage jump. If you rank and draft him based on repeating 29-ish minutes per then this doesn't matter as much.

People just need to understand the risks involved. The home run pick is George is you have time to wait, while the safer pick for immediate value is Batum. Even havning said that I have them ranked pretty closely even this year, so my bias for that potential may be showing a bit. O:-)
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Re: batum vs george

Postby jphanned » Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:30 pm

Again, George and Batum posted identical per-game value last season. They're peers. All those reasons fail to address why he suddenly drops off and Batum sees a sizable bump in his numbers. Doesn't make much sense to downgrade a player because he's entering his third season in the NBA. If anything, he's on an upward projectory and entering his prime years.
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Re: batum vs george

Postby RedHopeful » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:32 pm

Rounders Block wrote:Again, George and Batum posted identical per-game value last season.

I've agreed with all your points RB except this one. Over the course of the final 3 months, Batum had the edge on George. Simply put, Batum averaged in the neighborhood of 33 minutes a game and took advantage of it. Much more realistic to believe this is now his floor going forward with still some upside lingering for a tick or two more (although I completely agree that another jump isn't coming). Meanwhile, I expect George to break the 30 minute barrier but due to the depth of the Pacer team, he'll still get restricted someway/somehow.

If anything though, you've confirmed my suspicions that in a dynasty league, George is definitely the way to go. ;-D
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Re: batum vs george

Postby jphanned » Wed Aug 15, 2012 9:38 pm

RedHopeful wrote:
Rounders Block wrote:Again, George and Batum posted identical per-game value last season.

I've agreed with all your points RB except this one. Over the course of the final 3 months, Batum had the edge on George. Simply put, Batum averaged in the neighborhood of 33 minutes a game and took advantage of it. Much more realistic to believe this is now his floor going forward with still some upside lingering for a tick or two more (although I completely agree that another jump isn't coming). Meanwhile, I expect George to break the 30 minute barrier but due to the depth of the Pacer team, he'll still get restricted someway/somehow.

If anything though, you've confirmed my suspicions that in a dynasty league, George is definitely the way to go. ;-D


That's somewhat fair. But it's about what sample you choose to use. Over the final two months, George outperformed Batum. I still think Batum carries substantially more risk, though I may be in the minority there. Buz and I had to update the Big Board every week of last season, and I remember having to account for HUGE swings in Batum's value. There were stretches where he'd post top-6, top-10 value and others where he'd be outside the top-65. George was far steadier and easier to range.
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Re: batum vs george

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:49 am

Rounders Block wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:
Rounders Block wrote:Again, George and Batum posted identical per-game value last season.

I've agreed with all your points RB except this one. Over the course of the final 3 months, Batum had the edge on George. Simply put, Batum averaged in the neighborhood of 33 minutes a game and took advantage of it. Much more realistic to believe this is now his floor going forward with still some upside lingering for a tick or two more (although I completely agree that another jump isn't coming). Meanwhile, I expect George to break the 30 minute barrier but due to the depth of the Pacer team, he'll still get restricted someway/somehow.

If anything though, you've confirmed my suspicions that in a dynasty league, George is definitely the way to go. ;-D


That's somewhat fair. But it's about what sample you choose to use. Over the final two months, George outperformed Batum. I still think Batum carries substantially more risk, though I may be in the minority there. Buz and I had to update the Big Board every week of last season, and I remember having to account for HUGE swings in Batum's value. There were stretches where he'd post top-6, top-10 value and others where he'd be outside the top-65. George was far steadier and easier to range.

Interesting. I wonder how much we should attribute this not to Batum's talent level but everything else that happened around him? Firing of McMillan, some injury concerns and probably general lack of desire among players coming down the stretch come immediately to mind. Conversely, George's role and the team around him were about as stable as it could get.
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Re: batum vs george

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 16, 2012 2:30 am

RedHopeful wrote:
Rounders Block wrote:That's somewhat fair. But it's about what sample you choose to use. Over the final two months, George outperformed Batum. I still think Batum carries substantially more risk, though I may be in the minority there. Buz and I had to update the Big Board every week of last season, and I remember having to account for HUGE swings in Batum's value. There were stretches where he'd post top-6, top-10 value and others where he'd be outside the top-65. George was far steadier and easier to range.

Interesting. I wonder how much we should attribute this not to Batum's talent level but everything else that happened around him? Firing of McMillan, some injury concerns and probably general lack of desire among players coming down the stretch come immediately to mind. Conversely, George's role and the team around him were about as stable as it could get.


Yeah that's a good point. But it's also why I like George - the stability of his situation with the potential for some upside if they move Granger. Portland has never been the model of stability as they're in constant crisis management mode, whether it be an injury or axing someone in the front office / a coach. In RL at least, I think Batum is a bit overrated, which is why I'm not bullish on him.

All that said, I don't think there's much separating the two this year. A half-round at most. Was just curious why all the answers prior to me chiming in were so strongly in favor of Batum.
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Re: batum vs george

Postby Muharem23 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:09 am

Rounders Block wrote:I'll be the contrarian I guess. I'll take George over Batum long- AND short-term. Batum will take an "incredible jump" in production this year? Why? Because Crash is gone? Because they added Lillard? Don't really see a reason to buy an impending breakout...


Crash was already gone. I wasn't even counting him anymore... But now also Jamal Crawford is gone (14 ppg, 1.3 3pm and 3 apg) as well as Raymond Felton (11.4 ppg, 1 3pm and 6.5 apg) ... Not saying Batum will replace all those stats by himself ... But I definitely think the situation is right for him to come in and do a lot more of what he was already doing...
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Re: batum vs george

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:42 pm

Rounders Block wrote:All that said, I don't think there's much separating the two this year. A half-round at most. Was just curious why all the answers prior to me chiming in were so strongly in favor of Batum.

Mostly, for me, it's that Batum has a body of work that makes him more predictable from a production standpoint. You might have seen some week to week swings, but his production on his career has remained remarkably stable even as his minutes and usage have risen. Not that I think there's a lot separating the two guys mind you, because there isn't, but I think Batum is a safer investment this year. George is also getting a lot of hype, which will probably see his draft stock inflate depending on how the major fantasy sites play it, and the further his stock inflates that happier I am to take Batum instead. Obviously that's not a reason to not pick George unless it actually happens, but it plays in come draft day.
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Re: batum vs george

Postby DVauthrin » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:04 am

Personally, I lean slightly to batum. Portland is rebuilding, and has little proven scoring as well as depth. The odds of batum breaking out are higher than Paul George, who plays with a much more talented Indiana squad and has more competition for touches. I'd figure out a way to keep both though.
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