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2012-13 Busts

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2012-13 Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:03 pm

If we're talking darkhorses, we might as well discuss a few guys who are likely to fall flat. Who is likely to be this year's Dorell Wright?
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby leon » Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:08 am

I don't think Ryan Anderson repeats his top 10 numbers from last season. I'm expecting a solid top 50, if not top 35ish, season from him. Will be hard to see how he will fit with Robin Lopez and Anthony Davis. Some said he might play SF?
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:14 am

leon wrote:I don't think Ryan Anderson repeats his top 10 numbers from last season. I'm expecting a solid top 50, if not top 35ish, season from him. Will be hard to see how he will fit with Robin Lopez and Anthony Davis. Some said he might play SF?

The uneducated were casting him as a SF. Not sure why so many believe that the Hornets starting frontcourt will be Lopez/Davis too. Expect the lineups to be fluid but at the start of the season, I expect a lot of Ryno defensively at C (Davis at PF - more free to roam and give weakside help) while offensively Davis plays C floating around the hoop and Anderson runs around everywhere a la Dirk.

A guy I'm down on is Millsap. No, I'm not saying he is going to crater but between his contract extension and the growth of several teammates + shoot first PG, can't see him living up to last year's end of first round value.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby leon » Thu Aug 30, 2012 4:24 am

RedHopeful wrote:
leon wrote:I don't think Ryan Anderson repeats his top 10 numbers from last season. I'm expecting a solid top 50, if not top 35ish, season from him. Will be hard to see how he will fit with Robin Lopez and Anthony Davis. Some said he might play SF?

The uneducated were casting him as a SF. Not sure why so many believe that the Hornets starting frontcourt will be Lopez/Davis too. Expect the lineups to be fluid but at the start of the season, I expect a lot of Ryno defensively at C (Davis at PF - more free to roam and give weakside help) while offensively Davis plays C floating around the hoop and Anderson runs around everywhere a la Dirk.

A guy I'm down on is Millsap. No, I'm not saying he is going to crater but between his contract extension and the growth of several teammates + shoot first PG, can't see him living up to last year's end of first round value.


Millsap also had a career high in steals which boosted his value. His steals will probably drop to the 1.3-1.5 range which is still studly for a PF, just not as elite as the 1.8 he got last year.

I think Ray Allen will drop a bit too (if that's not already a given). Depends on how much PT he gets but I think the Heat will transform him into a long-range bomber like Mike Miller. Could keep his value up with an insane amount of 3pt/g ala Ryno.

Danny Granger will continue his slide down the ranks as he gets older and Paul George asserts himself in the Indy offense.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 5:27 am

leon wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:A guy I'm down on is Millsap. No, I'm not saying he is going to crater but between his contract extension and the growth of several teammates + shoot first PG, can't see him living up to last year's end of first round value.


Millsap also had a career high in steals which boosted his value. His steals will probably drop to the 1.3-1.5 range which is still studly for a PF, just not as elite as the 1.8 he got last year.

It's not as huge an outlier as it seems. His steal numbers in his first two years were pretty close to that and I think there's a solid argument to set expectations right around 1.5. On top of that his block numbers last year were a career low by a pretty significant margin - at least as low as his steal numbers were high at any rate. If his blocks jump back up to 1.3 or even 1.5 that makes up for a small dip in steal numbers. Keep in mind that he only played 32 minutes a game last year too, so there's room for Utah to play Favors without tanking his minutes relative to last season.

That said, taking Millsap in the early second makes me nervous as hell and I can't see myself doing it in any draft this year. I think he's that guy who slips down to the end of the second or even early third except in leagues with hardcore Millsap fan boys. It might actually be best for his value if he got traded. I know I'd love to see him start for any team I cheer for.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby lastemp3ror » Thu Aug 30, 2012 2:41 pm

I am not sure what exactly the definition of bust is exactly, but I am going to stay away from Nets players. In particular, JJ and/or D.Will will be taking a heavy hit. They are both used to having the ball in their hands when it is crunch time. So I could see this being a game of monkey in the middle where D.Will is on one end, and JJ is on the other, while the rest of the team is in the middle.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:02 pm

lastemp3ror wrote:I am not sure what exactly the definition of bust is exactly

Yep good question. For the purposes of this thread, I like to think of a bust who will miss meeting his projected value by at least over one full round.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby Phil O'Pastry » Thu Aug 30, 2012 3:09 pm

I expect Kobe to take a pretty big hit. Also not sure if Tyson Chandler can live up to last season's numbers. I think David Lee's number might take a hit, particularly rebounding - although a lot of that depends on whether Bogut can stay freak injury free.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:34 pm

RedHopeful wrote:
lastemp3ror wrote:I am not sure what exactly the definition of bust is exactly

Yep good question. For the purposes of this thread, I like to think of a bust who will miss meeting his projected value by at least over one full round.

I'd be tempted to go bigger than that. Lots of guys drafted in the fir5st put up secind round value and aren't busts. If I draft a guy in the 5th and he puts up 6th round value that doesn't feel like a bust to me either (disappointing, but not a bust). I think the bar should be set a little higher (lower?) to maybe a couple of rounds or more. If I draft Kobe in the second and he puts up 5th or 6th round value, now that's a bust.

On the Kobe front I'm actually not worried. I think a big bump in efficiency should make up for the decreased counting stat opportunities that accompany lower usage.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby bujfan2030 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:35 pm

I think Iguodala could be a slight bust. I think his assists are liable to decrease by a couple while playing with Lawson.
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