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2012-13 Busts

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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby leon » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:48 pm

bujfan2030 wrote:I think Iguodala could be a slight bust. I think his assists are liable to decrease by a couple while playing with Lawson.


I think he'll still be able to get 4 to 5 assists per game. Will offset that drop with an increase in scoring, treys, and especially FT since he shot a career-worse .617 from the line last year. He's also moving to a faster offense. Philly was 24th last year in pace with 91.9. Denver was second with 96.7. Two years ago it was 93.9 (16th) and 97.9 (3rd) respectfully, so he'll see a few more possessions.

In the end, I still see him as a top-30 option.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:51 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:
lastemp3ror wrote:I am not sure what exactly the definition of bust is exactly

Yep good question. For the purposes of this thread, I like to think of a bust who will miss meeting his projected value by at least over one full round.

I'd be tempted to go bigger than that. Lots of guys drafted in the fir5st put up secind round value and aren't busts. If I draft a guy in the 5th and he puts up 6th round value that doesn't feel like a bust to me either (disappointing, but not a bust). I think the bar should be set a little higher (lower?) to maybe a couple of rounds or more. If I draft Kobe in the second and he puts up 5th or 6th round value, now that's a bust.

True. Maybe a round and a half for the top 4 rounds or so and then at least two for the middle tier.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby spud_webb_04 » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:42 pm

I think that Lin will be overdrafted by lots of managers, i'm staying away from all houston players in next seasons drafts.
Although there may be some fa gems during the season.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby Fenris-77 » Sat Sep 01, 2012 11:24 pm

There's still some goodness on the Rockets. Mostly I'm thinking about how late you can get Asik in drafts so far. Kevin Martin has some pretty massive potential of course, and pretty much everyone else is a crapshoot. I actually think Lin will be decent, but his actual value dependson how high he's getting drafted. I;d agree that he'll probably be over-drafted, especially in public leagues.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby DVauthrin » Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:05 am

Fenris-77 wrote:There's still some goodness on the Rockets. Mostly I'm thinking about how late you can get Asik in drafts so far. Kevin Martin has some pretty massive potential of course, and pretty much everyone else is a crapshoot. I actually think Lin will be decent, but his actual value dependson how high he's getting drafted. I;d agree that he'll probably be over-drafted, especially in public leagues.


I think Lin puts up top 75 value myself. He's on a rebuilding team that has few scoring options and nobody to push him at the point. As long as you take him in the 6th round or later, you'll be happy.

I like Asik for cheap boards and blocks, and I actually think they phase Martin out in favor of Jeremy Lamb sooner rather than later. You want a deep sleeper: Patrick Patterson. He's the favorite to be the starting PF.

Anyways, my busts:

Pau Gasol: With Howard and Nash in town, somebody has to take a backseat offensively, and it will be him
Paul Millsap: Too many bigs in Utah need playing time, so unless he can handle a lot of minutes at SF, his usage goes down
John Wall: People are taking him in the first 40 picks, and it's just too high.
Ersan IIyasova: Yes, he posted top 50 value last year. If he was going in the late middle of the draft, no problem. But before round 6? You have more faith in Scott Skiles and his rotations than I do.
Goran Dragic: He will be solid, but let him prove it before drafting him in the 3rd or 4th round.
Ryan Anderson: Do the Hornets see him the same way Orlando did and will use him accordingly?
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby jphanned » Sun Sep 23, 2012 6:38 am

Consider Ryan Anderson a valid sleeper this year, if anything. 4/36M says enough about how they view him.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby RedHopeful » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:04 am

DVauthrin wrote:You want a deep sleeper: Patrick Patterson. He's the favorite to be the starting PF.

Not the favorite to hang onto it all season though. :-B

DVauthrin wrote:Anyways, my busts:

Pau Gasol: With Howard and Nash in town, somebody has to take a backseat offensively, and it will be him
Paul Millsap: Too many bigs in Utah need playing time, so unless he can handle a lot of minutes at SF, his usage goes down
John Wall: People are taking him in the first 40 picks, and it's just too high.
Ersan IIyasova: Yes, he posted top 50 value last year. If he was going in the late middle of the draft, no problem. But before round 6? You have more faith in Scott Skiles and his rotations than I do.
Goran Dragic: He will be solid, but let him prove it before drafting him in the 3rd or 4th round.
Ryan Anderson: Do the Hornets see him the same way Orlando did and will use him accordingly?

Interesting. I find Gasol is being undervalued by most but you're calling him a bust? We'll see, but my money is that Gasol has the best chance on retaining value comparable to seasons past than the rest of his teammates. A real PG? Princeton-ish offense? A declining Bryant and a questionable Howard who is at a min missing valuable practice time?

The Hornets intend to use Ryno more completely. No more just camping out on the perimeter as he'll be a more integral part of the offense (thereby usage and shots from all over the floor will be up.)

The rest of the guys though I kind of agree with you and don't expect to land any of them on any of my teams.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby DVauthrin » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:24 am

RedHopeful wrote:
DVauthrin wrote:You want a deep sleeper: Patrick Patterson. He's the favorite to be the starting PF.

Not the favorite to hang onto it all season though. :-B

DVauthrin wrote:Anyways, my busts:

Pau Gasol: With Howard and Nash in town, somebody has to take a backseat offensively, and it will be him
Paul Millsap: Too many bigs in Utah need playing time, so unless he can handle a lot of minutes at SF, his usage goes down
John Wall: People are taking him in the first 40 picks, and it's just too high.
Ersan IIyasova: Yes, he posted top 50 value last year. If he was going in the late middle of the draft, no problem. But before round 6? You have more faith in Scott Skiles and his rotations than I do.
Goran Dragic: He will be solid, but let him prove it before drafting him in the 3rd or 4th round.
Ryan Anderson: Do the Hornets see him the same way Orlando did and will use him accordingly?

Interesting. I find Gasol is being undervalued by most but you're calling him a bust? We'll see, but my money is that Gasol has the best chance on retaining value comparable to seasons past than the rest of his teammates. A real PG? Princeton-ish offense? A declining Bryant and a questionable Howard who is at a min missing valuable practice time?

The Hornets intend to use Ryno more completely. No more just camping out on the perimeter as he'll be a more integral part of the offense (thereby usage and shots from all over the floor will be up.)

The rest of the guys though I kind of agree with you and don't expect to land any of them on any of my teams.


On Gasol, I just don't see 1st round value here. I could see him starting out well until Howard is healthy enough to play, but after that there are too many mouths to feed in LA. Kobe isn't going to all of a sudden stop chucking with Dwight around. And Nash will take more shots than Sessions did. Perhaps Pau can get his numbers as a pick and pop guy, but less plays will be run through him than in any previous season as a Laker.

As for Anderson, I guess it all depends on where he's drafted. If you get him in the 4th, like what happened in the mock, he's a sleeper. If he goes in the 2nd, I think he may have a hard time returning that value. I'll admit I'm lower on him than most.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby jphanned » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:41 am

So far Pau's ADP is 15.4 and Ryan Anderson's 39.8. Perfectly reasonable spots for both.
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Re: 2012-13 Busts

Postby DVauthrin » Sun Sep 23, 2012 8:13 am

RedHopeful wrote:
DVauthrin wrote:You want a deep sleeper: Patrick Patterson. He's the favorite to be the starting PF.

Not the favorite to hang onto it all season though. :-B


Well anything is possible with the Rockets having a ton of power forwards. But McHale loves him some Patterson. He gave him backup minutes at center last year, despite being 6'9.
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