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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Grounded Polo » Wed Aug 15, 2012 11:24 pm

Red, changing your mind on Wade at 5 now huh?
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:40 am

Surprised by the Love over CP3 pick as I see Paul being the clear #3 pick this season after Lebron/Durant. According to BBM, the drop-off after the top 3 to Love in overall value is not small. I also feel Paul is easier to build around because he locks up two categories (AST and STL) while contributing in almost every other category.

Love, on the other hand, with his non-traditional production for his position makes him very tricky to build around because you'll have to find ways to make up for his relative lack of FG% and BLK production by looking for non-traditional production at other roster spots. By having a high-scoring PF/C who shoots in the 45% range, a team will be handicapped in that category from the outset and will have to keep an eye out for high-FG% non-bigs, which will restrict your drafting the rest of the way. Same with the low BLKs.

One angle I could see people taking is that Love may be considered more durable and less of a health risk as compared to CP3, but I can't think that it will weigh heavily on people's minds considering Paul didn't have any issues last season. I don't know if people will expect Love to continue to improve, but I would have my doubts if so. From all indications, the TWolves should be better this season than last, which may lessen the burden on Love and impact his production. With CP3, the Clippers are always going to run everything through him due to their incompetent coach and the way CP3 dominates the offense on any team he plays on.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby So-Tex » Thu Aug 16, 2012 12:58 am

dcdoorknob wrote:First mild surprise for me was Love over Paul at 3. I'd be perfectly happy with Love at 4th in any draft (roto or h2h), but I just can't actually justify him above any of the top 3 personally.
bokzg wrote:Surprised by the Love over CP3 pick as I see Paul being the clear #3 pick this season after Lebron/Durant.

It wouldn't surprise me if this was a h2h mock. I took Love in another mock over at Busersports with h2h settings. But that's more personal preference as well as a roll of the dice. My thinking is I can build around Love with some of the 2nd and 3rd round talent which seems to be falling down there, PGs and SGs especially. I mean, maybe I'm not crunching the numbers right, but I'd take a chance on Love with some combo of Nash, Harden, Paul George, Lowry, and some others.

Buuuuuuuut...that's h2h. For roto, I might even consider CP3 as #1a over LBJ and Durant. Although, I really, really like Durant. But point being CP3 is top three for a roto league draft for sure.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:00 am

Oh, and the 5th pick is going to suck this year.

Wade makes sense because of his across the board production, but there are issues with his health and durability. Plus, they have Ray now, which may further lessen the burden on Wade and maybe even lead to MIA taking their time bringing Wade back and/or sitting him throughout the season to save him for the postseason.

AlJeff makes sense as well. He's had two consective great seasons with production justifying a 5th overall pick and is cemented as his team's best player. I'm wondering if the Jazz start trying to find more PT for Favors and Kanter since they're viewed as the future of a team whose window is a few seasons from now at least. Improvement from other guys like Hayward and Burk, and the addition of the trigger-happy MoWill could also have a small effect on AlJeff's production.

Dirk could be taken with the expectation that he returns to form after having a full summer off in which you have to assume he wouldn't have slacked off like he did the previous season to such disastrous results. You have to wonder what his motivation will be though this season with a roster that looks nothing like the one he won a ring with and doesn't look like a contender. Plus, he's not getting any younger.

Could see Aldridge being taken here, but people don't seem to view him as a #5 player yet despite his production. There have been no indications that he's been negatively impacted by the injury last season, and he's still clearly the team's best player with his best teammates being a rookie PG combo guard and the low-usage Batum. Like AlJeff, he's had two consecutive years of 1st round type production, although he suffered a dip in BLK this past season.

Someone could roll the dice and take Bynum, but I doubt it happens due to his injury history and the uncertainty of his new situation on in PHI and the massive changes in his circumstances (2nd/3rd option w/ two stars who knew how to set him up, to 1st option with young talent who haven't shown the level of passing his old team had).

The last four being PF and/or C eligible boosts their value a little too.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 16, 2012 1:58 am

Grounded Polo wrote:Red, changing your mind on Wade at 5 now huh?

Yeah, unfortunately logic and the numbers dictated the move. Like I said, if this was H2H, I would have gone another route.

bokzg wrote:Wade makes sense because of his across the board production, but there are issues with his health and durability. Plus, they have Ray now, which may further lessen the burden on Wade and maybe even lead to MIA taking their time bringing Wade back and/or sitting him throughout the season to save him for the postseason.

This is how I felt initially, about a month ago. However, I think I might have overreacted a bit as the Heat are still really going to need a bunch out of him to stay among the elite. I trust the competitor in him (like I did when he had his comeback type year in 2008-09) that he'll want to prove to himself and the naysayers he still has the edge. Moreover, perhaps we should be considering Lebron's long season which finally just concluded? Both physically and mentally.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Grounded Polo » Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:01 am

I think Wade at 5 is also fantastic in H2H if he continues to not shoot 3's ever again. Unless of course, we're seeing Dwight 100% healthy in preseason, then the Dwight build is on and he's top 5.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby barrec » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:48 am

bokzg wrote:Surprised by the Love over CP3 pick as I see Paul being the clear #3 pick this season after Lebron/Durant. According to BBM, the drop-off after the top 3 to Love in overall value is not small. I also feel Paul is easier to build around because he locks up two categories (AST and STL) while contributing in almost every other category.

Love, on the other hand, with his non-traditional production for his position makes him very tricky to build around because you'll have to find ways to make up for his relative lack of FG% and BLK production by looking for non-traditional production at other roster spots. By having a high-scoring PF/C who shoots in the 45% range, a team will be handicapped in that category from the outset and will have to keep an eye out for high-FG% non-bigs, which will restrict your drafting the rest of the way. Same with the low BLKs.

One angle I could see people taking is that Love may be considered more durable and less of a health risk as compared to CP3, but I can't think that it will weigh heavily on people's minds considering Paul didn't have any issues last season. I don't know if people will expect Love to continue to improve, but I would have my doubts if so. From all indications, the TWolves should be better this season than last, which may lessen the burden on Love and impact his production. With CP3, the Clippers are always going to run everything through him due to their incompetent coach and the way CP3 dominates the offense on any team he plays on.


The Wolves' new lineup will definitely affect his usage. As has been seen in Miami (and probably LA this season), with more talent tends to come more efficiency. Let's hope Love's 2-pt FG% creeps up from 47% to closer to 50%. Even if his counting numbers come down, he should still hover around 24/10. His volume of FTs should help cover for block/boards specialists.

CP3 is a beast - hands down. I might even be second guessing myself a little bit. Bit I feel confident I can find assists, steals and blocks throughout the draft.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:23 pm

Not exactly humming right along, are we? :-B
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby So-Tex » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:34 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:Not exactly humming right along, are we? :-B

Well, I know I PMd cnote right after I picked. I could send him another. :-?
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby geodbear » Thu Aug 16, 2012 4:37 pm

I'm around to pick once cnote does, but honestly haven't decided who my next two choices would be.
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