Draft Commentary - Fantasy Basketball Cafe 2014
Fantasy Basketball Cafe


Return to 2012 Mock Draft

Draft Commentary

Moderator: jphanned

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:15 am

dcdoorknob wrote:I'm sure RB can bring out some sort of advanced stats on Marc with and without Randolph (hell I'd be curious, they might not even support this for all I know) but even just looking at pre and post-ASB splits will start to give an idea. I still think he'll be top 40 but there's not really any upside from where he was taken.


Marc per-36s with Randolph on the floor ('12): 445 min, 16.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.5 blk, 52.7% fg
Marc per-36s with Randolph off the floor ('12): 1926 min, 15.9 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.2 blk, 47.3% fg

Marc per-36s with Randolph on the floor ('11): 1874 min, 15.2 pts, 8.1 reb, 2.3 blk, 54.4% fg
Marc per-36s with Randolph off the floor ('11): 713 min, 13.5 pts, 10.7 reb, 1.5 blk, 47.8% fg

Looks like he's actually better with Randolph on the floor rather than off.
Find me on Twitter
jphanned
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
EditorModeratorCafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 ChampionTrivia Time Trial ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 7583
(Past Year: 333)
Joined: 20 Jul 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: The Bay to LA

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby mbuser » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:36 am

And don't overlook the obvious - if he matches those career-high 37mpg, he'll be huge once again. Start removing minutes and that impact is going to shrink no matter who he is playing with.

I must say that I'm a bit surprised to see Rondo and Wall go this early in a 9-cat roto exercise, particularly with Lowry, Dragic, and Jennings on the board. Round 3 is way too early to be justifying deficiencies and talking about punting (D12 excluded) - you have to be targeting BAP.

And I'm loving Cousins this year, too. He led the league in FGA at the rim but was well below the league average for conversion (57% vs 63% for league). Got better as the season progressed, and so did that rank (36th over final 2 months). We're all going to want to be on board when he puts it together. Per-36s to this point of his career include 19.5 pts, 11.9 reb, 1.5 stl, and 1.2 blk. Taking another look here, have to agree with RB that you give him the nod ahead of Monroe in roto (h2h is a no-brainer).
mbuser
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 3860
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 21 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Basketball

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:46 am

Intersesting stats, he's certainly been more efficient with Z-bo by his side, look at the fg% difference. Maybe Marc's slow down towards the end of the season had more to do with just flat out fatigue than with Randolph coming back, with the career high mpg and condensed schedule. But the Grizzlies have 2 quality backup bigs in Speights and Arthur (and also Haddadi for spot minutes and certain matchups), so I would expect closer to 33-34 mpg than 37-38 like last year.
dcdoorknob
High School Hoopster
High School Hoopster

Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 343
(Past Year: 73)
Joined: 19 Aug 2009
Home Cafe: Basketball

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:49 am

Rounders Block wrote:
dcdoorknob wrote:I'm sure RB can bring out some sort of advanced stats on Marc with and without Randolph (hell I'd be curious, they might not even support this for all I know) but even just looking at pre and post-ASB splits will start to give an idea. I still think he'll be top 40 but there's not really any upside from where he was taken.


Marc per-36s with Randolph on the floor ('12): 445 min, 16.6 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.5 blk, 52.7% fg
Marc per-36s with Randolph off the floor ('12): 1926 min, 15.9 pts, 9.8 reb, 2.2 blk, 47.3% fg

Marc per-36s with Randolph on the floor ('11): 1874 min, 15.2 pts, 8.1 reb, 2.3 blk, 54.4% fg
Marc per-36s with Randolph off the floor ('11): 713 min, 13.5 pts, 10.7 reb, 1.5 blk, 47.8% fg

Looks like he's actually better with Randolph on the floor rather than off.


So those numbers are when theyre on the court playing together? I know Hollins liked playing Randolph off the bench and used Speights alot with Gasol to spread the floor a bit, so Randolph and Gasol didnt get as much minutes together as they did the year before. What im not understanding is if you go off PAB numbers alone, Gasols rebounds were 7.6 in 35mpg. Randolph played in most of those PAB games, especially the ones in April when Gasol averaged just about 12 pts, 6.4 rebs in 32 mpg. I dont know, something doesnt add up.
jay_00
College Captain
College Captain

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 449
(Past Year: 44)
Joined: 9 Jun 2009
Home Cafe: Basketball

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:06 am

jay_00 wrote:So those numbers are when theyre on the court playing together? I know Hollins liked playing Randolph off the bench and used Speights alot with Gasol to spread the floor a bit, so Randolph and Gasol didnt get as much minutes together as they did the year before. What im not understanding is if you go off PAB numbers alone, Gasols rebounds were 7.6 in 35mpg. Randolph played in most of those PAB games, especially the ones in April when Gasol averaged just about 12 pts, 6.4 rebs in 32 mpg. I dont know, something doesnt add up.


Keep in mind that those are per-36 averages, and don't account for the fact that Marc's minutes took a sizable hit once Z-Bo returned. Was seeing 38+ minutes a game in January/February when Z-Bo was sidelined, and saw a shade under 32 mpg in that final month when Z-Bo played all but one game.

To sum it up, Marc plays better on a per-minute basis when he's out there on the floor with Z-Bo, but he plays less minutes overall when Z-Bo is healthy. Comes out as a net negative.
Find me on Twitter
jphanned
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
EditorModeratorCafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 ChampionTrivia Time Trial ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 7583
(Past Year: 333)
Joined: 20 Jul 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: The Bay to LA

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:05 am

Sorry for the tardiness. Finally got to see The Dark Knight Rises tonight. ;-D
Image
RedHopeful
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicResponse Team LeaderFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 18252
(Past Year: 603)
Joined: 11 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: http://twitter.com/Redhopeful

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:23 am

Reminder to keep your rosters updated. :-)
Find me on Twitter
jphanned
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
EditorModeratorCafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 ChampionTrivia Time Trial ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 7583
(Past Year: 333)
Joined: 20 Jul 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: The Bay to LA

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:03 pm

I'm a bit surprised by the Rondo and Wall picks as well.

Rondo used to be a great FG%, REB, AST and STL guy, which made up for his terrible FT%, complete lack of 3PTM, and high TOs. Over the past couple of seasons, his FG% has dropped rather significantly 50's to mid-40's, which has taken away one of his major strengths and makes the lack of 3PTM and abysmal FT% even harder to swallow. I guess you could hope that his playoff performance that included increased scoring (17.3 ppg), rebounding (6.7 rpg), and better FT% (69.6) will carry over into next season, but I'm inclined to lean towards him being more like his post-ASB self. That's not someone that I think should be drafted in the first three rounds, particularly in roto.

Wall is even more questionable because he's never put up anything like 3rd round value thus far in his career, and would need significant improvement in multiple areas to get there. While I'd like to think that an improved roster and attitude towards winning and professionalism for the team will help him realize his potential, the odds of that resulting in him suddenly scoring more while becoming much more efficient, developing a 3pt shot, and/or cutting down on his TOs is pretty low. Way too much of a risk this early in the draft IMO.
Image
bokzg
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2079
(Past Year: 68)
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:08 pm

bokzg wrote:I'm a bit surprised by the Rondo and Wall picks as well.

Rondo used to be a great FG%, REB, AST and STL guy, which made up for his terrible FT%, complete lack of 3PTM, and high TOs. Over the past couple of seasons, his FG% has dropped rather significantly 50's to mid-40's, which has taken away one of his major strengths and makes the lack of 3PTM and abysmal FT% even harder to swallow. I guess you could hope that his playoff performance that included increased scoring (17.3 ppg), rebounding (6.7 rpg), and better FT% (69.6) will carry over into next season, but I'm inclined to lean towards him being more like his post-ASB self. That's not someone that I think should be drafted in the first three rounds, particularly in roto.

Wall is even more questionable because he's never put up anything like 3rd round value thus far in his career, and would need significant improvement in multiple areas to get there. While I'd like to think that an improved roster and attitude towards winning and professionalism for the team will help him realize his potential, the odds of that resulting in him suddenly scoring more while becoming much more efficient, developing a 3pt shot, and/or cutting down on his TOs is pretty low. Way too much of a risk this early in the draft IMO.


Agree with all of this.
Find me on Twitter
jphanned
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
EditorModeratorCafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 ChampionTrivia Time Trial ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 7583
(Past Year: 333)
Joined: 20 Jul 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: The Bay to LA

Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:29 pm

Obviously I think Wall has a solid chance to post 3rd round value, but I'm not just whistling in the wind. With only marginal improvements from the floor and line he's a 20-ish ppg scorer, and if he shoots .440-.445 from the floor and .800 from the line he's not a huge drag on the %s (and both those numbers are within easy reach). With a couple more reliable targets and a full training camp to get a handle on the system in Washington it's not unthinkable that he'll put up something closer to 10 dimes than the 8 he managed last year too, although I'm expecting something more like 9 per, and perhaps a modest drop in TOs, as one would expect from a third year guard . On top of that he's a steal and a half (or a little more) and almost a block a game even without improving in either area, and with improved defense in the paint he may well be able to gamble in the passing lanes a little more this year.

If he puts up 19 and 9 with 4.5 boards, 1.5 steals, .8 blocks and shoots .440/.800 I'll be fine with him at this pick, and there's room for the Ast, Stl and points totals to be better than that. The elite assist numbers are hard to come by and I like the peripherals there (especially the solid Reb/Stl/Blk) enough to pay a bit of a premium.

All that said, I talked myself out of drafting Cousins with that pick and in retrospect wish I hadn't. :-b
Fenris-77
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 6327
(Past Year: 261)
Joined: 10 Jul 2008
Home Cafe: Basketball

PreviousNext

Return to 2012 Mock Draft

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], neuronss and 0 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues



Get Ready...
The 2014 NBA season starts in 1:33 hours
(and 58 days)


  • Fantasy Basketball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact