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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:23 pm

bokzg wrote:I'm a bit surprised by the Rondo and Wall picks as well.

Rondo used to be a great FG%, REB, AST and STL guy, which made up for his terrible FT%, complete lack of 3PTM, and high TOs. Over the past couple of seasons, his FG% has dropped rather significantly 50's to mid-40's, which has taken away one of his major strengths and makes the lack of 3PTM and abysmal FT% even harder to swallow. I guess you could hope that his playoff performance that included increased scoring (17.3 ppg), rebounding (6.7 rpg), and better FT% (69.6) will carry over into next season, but I'm inclined to lean towards him being more like his post-ASB self. That's not someone that I think should be drafted in the first three rounds, particularly in roto.


Well we know the goal to winning in roto is to achieve balance. If had taken Lowry there, then when it comes my turn to pick again at the 4/5 turn, look at the pgs that are available. I didnt believe Conley, Holiday (now that iggys gone and he has Bynum), or Dragic would be available there, and its a risk hoping they would be there. Instead i would be stuck with 2nd rate pgs like Felton, Mo Williams, Lin, Lillard, Jameer, or Teague in the 2nd half of the draft. A couple of those guys are primed for big years, but theyre higher risk being that theyre unpredictable. With taking Rondo, i dont have to worry so much about assists, in fact i can grab one of those pgs later and be extremely strong in assists if they do break out.

With my first 3 picks look at the combined stat line:

16.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.6 bpg, .7 3ptm, .76 ft%, .489 fg%, 2.8 tos

These are just last years numbers and i fully expect Rondos fg% to bounce back to at least 46%, and his stls to bounce back to at least 2 per game, if not more. I believe scoring, ft%, and the threes can be had later throughout the draft. I mean im not lookin to dominate in 3s, i just need to be average. But so far the fg% is extremely solid.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:50 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:Obviously I think Wall has a solid chance to post 3rd round value, but I'm not just whistling in the wind. With only marginal improvements from the floor and line he's a 20-ish ppg scorer, and if he shoots .440-.445 from the floor and .800 from the line he's not a huge drag on the %s (and both those numbers are within easy reach). With a couple more reliable targets and a full training camp to get a handle on the system in Washington it's not unthinkable that he'll put up something closer to 10 dimes than the 8 he managed last year too, although I'm expecting something more like 9 per, and perhaps a modest drop in TOs, as one would expect from a third year guard . On top of that he's a steal and a half (or a little more) and almost a block a game even without improving in either area, and with improved defense in the paint he may well be able to gamble in the passing lanes a little more this year.

If he puts up 19 and 9 with 4.5 boards, 1.5 steals, .8 blocks and shoots .440/.800 I'll be fine with him at this pick, and there's room for the Ast, Stl and points totals to be better than that. The elite assist numbers are hard to come by and I like the peripherals there (especially the solid Reb/Stl/Blk) enough to pay a bit of a premium.

All that said, I talked myself out of drafting Cousins with that pick and in retrospect wish I hadn't. :-b


That's a lot of "ifs" for an early pick IMO. It's certainly possible Wall puts up those numbers, but too much of a gamble for me that early. Then again, I can be conservative at times, so take that as you will.

Just out of curiosity, did you think it was very likely someone else would have taken him before he made it back to you in the next round? I'd be curious to know if anyone else was considering Wall this early.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:14 pm

jay_00 wrote:
bokzg wrote:I'm a bit surprised by the Rondo and Wall picks as well.

Rondo used to be a great FG%, REB, AST and STL guy, which made up for his terrible FT%, complete lack of 3PTM, and high TOs. Over the past couple of seasons, his FG% has dropped rather significantly 50's to mid-40's, which has taken away one of his major strengths and makes the lack of 3PTM and abysmal FT% even harder to swallow. I guess you could hope that his playoff performance that included increased scoring (17.3 ppg), rebounding (6.7 rpg), and better FT% (69.6) will carry over into next season, but I'm inclined to lean towards him being more like his post-ASB self. That's not someone that I think should be drafted in the first three rounds, particularly in roto.


Well we know the goal to winning in roto is to achieve balance. If had taken Lowry there, then when it comes my turn to pick again at the 4/5 turn, look at the pgs that are available. I didnt believe Conley, Holiday (now that iggys gone and he has Bynum), or Dragic would be available there, and its a risk hoping they would be there. Instead i would be stuck with 2nd rate pgs like Felton, Mo Williams, Lin, Lillard, Jameer, or Teague in the 2nd half of the draft. A couple of those guys are primed for big years, but theyre higher risk being that theyre unpredictable. With taking Rondo, i dont have to worry so much about assists, in fact i can grab one of those pgs later and be extremely strong in assists if they do break out.

With my first 3 picks look at the combined stat line:

16.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.6 bpg, .7 3ptm, .76 ft%, .489 fg%, 2.8 tos

These are just last years numbers and i fully expect Rondos fg% to bounce back to at least 46%, and his stls to bounce back to at least 2 per game, if not more. I believe scoring, ft%, and the threes can be had later throughout the draft. I mean im not lookin to dominate in 3s, i just need to be average. But so far the fg% is extremely solid.


We all have our strategies for roto and drafting in general, but I just don't think that Rondo's production over the past couple of seasons justifies a pick that early. In my opinion, you can't just look at how Rondo fits your team and pick him so early because you don't think he'll make it back to you. I think you have to look at the players you're leaving on the table by taking him, and whether those players would have helped your team more.

It's great to project how certain stats and positions are going to play out over the course of a draft, but I think it's too early to not be taking BPA. Taking a guy who was putting up 8th round value post-ASB last season just to provide a cushion for assist production and certainty in the PG slot is too big a risk for me personally. The fact that Rondo has such atypical production for a PG, i.e. severe deficiencies in traditional PG areas like 3PTM and FT%, makes it so that he has to really excel in what he's good at to compensate. If he just becomes average, or even slightly above-average, in FG%, his value plummets and really handicaps your team.

As with Wall, I'm not saying that it's impossible or even improbably that Rondo will put up stats that will warrant a pick that early, I just think that there are too many questions and risks involved to take on with a 3rd pick. You're hoping that Rondo's drop in FG% over the past two seasons will not only cease, but completeley reverse and jump back significantly. Is it possible? Sure. Do the facts support it? Not really.

(It should also be noted when referencing his postseason numbers that Rondo was playing a TON of minutes, which would not be going on during the regular season).
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:30 pm

Kobe and Pierce back to back = this team boring me to tears from the lack of excitement
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:33 pm

Can we just get bokzg to take over this thread and break down all of our picks? This is excellent stuff.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:35 pm

bokzg wrote:We all have our strategies for roto and drafting in general, but I just don't think that Rondo's production over the past couple of seasons justifies a pick that early. In my opinion, you can't just look at how Rondo fits your team and pick him so early because you don't think he'll make it back to you. I think you have to look at the players you're leaving on the table by taking him, and whether those players would have helped your team more.

It's great to project how certain stats and positions are going to play out over the course of a draft, but I think it's too early to not be taking BPA. Taking a guy who was putting up 8th round value post-ASB last season just to provide a cushion for assist production and certainty in the PG slot is too big a risk for me personally. The fact that Rondo has such atypical production for a PG, i.e. severe deficiencies in traditional PG areas like 3PTM and FT%, makes it so that he has to really excel in what he's good at to compensate. If he just becomes average, or even slightly above-average, in FG%, his value plummets and really handicaps your team.

As with Wall, I'm not saying that it's impossible or even improbably that Rondo will put up stats that will warrant a pick that early, I just think that there are too many questions and risks involved to take on with a 3rd pick. You're hoping that Rondo's drop in FG% over the past two seasons will not only cease, but completeley reverse and jump back significantly. Is it possible? Sure. Do the facts support it? Not really.

(It should also be noted when referencing his postseason numbers that Rondo was playing a TON of minutes, which would not be going on during the regular season).


Last season was Rondos lowest fg% since his rookie year, and even with that im still averaging 49 fg%. So his fg% certainly doesnt handicap my team, mostly because he doesnt score enough for it to affect me.

The the thing here is by drafting either Lowry or Jennings, my fg% drops significantly, and it just makes me average in assists and steals. The real thing i gain from them is ft%, 3s, and a slight boost in scoring, but i already have that with Durant, so why continue to boost it? It just makes u dominant in 2 stats, and sub par in others. Not to mention its much easier to acquire players that give you a decent boost in ft%, 3s, and scoring later in the draft than it is to get assists and steals. The thing is that Durant is so dominant in those categories that i dont need a major boost in ft%, 3s, or scoring later in the draft. I just need slight help in those areas going along. Thats why i feel Rondo fits nicely with Durant this year.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Grounded Polo » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:05 am

Anyone care to play devil's advocate on Dragic? I'm sure to take him in a real draft, everyone looks good sans small sample size.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:28 am

jay_00 wrote:Last season was Rondos lowest fg% since his rookie year, and even with that im still averaging 49 fg%. So his fg% certainly doesnt handicap my team, mostly because he doesnt score enough for it to affect me.

The the thing here is by drafting either Lowry or Jennings, my fg% drops significantly, and it just makes me average in assists and steals. The real thing i gain from them is ft%, 3s, and a slight boost in scoring, but i already have that with Durant, so why continue to boost it? It just makes u dominant in 2 stats, and sub par in others. Not to mention its much easier to acquire players that give you a decent boost in ft%, 3s, and scoring later in the draft than it is to get assists and steals. The thing is that Durant is so dominant in those categories that i dont need a major boost in ft%, 3s, or scoring later in the draft. I just need slight help in those areas going along. Thats why i feel Rondo fits nicely with Durant this year.


Don't disagree that Rondo fits very well next to Durant. I'm not going to dispute your analysis of statistical scarcity either, since that's open to interpretation and I'm sure you've done more homework on it than I have. I just don't think those reasons justify taking Rondo so early. You seem to have really been set on getting a PG in that round, and so are only comparing Rondo to Lowry and Jennings, but I think that's too restrictive of a perspective. Again, it's my opinion that you go for BPA so early in the draft, and worry about positional/statistical compatibility later.

I think you're ignoring the fact that there is a lot of draft to go at this point. Positional/statistical compatibility is not as important as getting maximum value for each pick when it's this early. If you end up with a pairing of Durant with a more traditional PG (low FG%, high FT%, 3PTM, etc.), that will indeed create redundancy in those categories between the two. However, teams usually need that type of redundancy in their backcourt/wing players to make up for other players who are weak in those categories (i.e. most PFs and Cs) later on. As good as Durant is in those categories, he cannot carry them by himself, so you'll need other players who contribute in them at some point anyway. Redundancy at this point in the draft is not a problem or undesirable.

Lastly, it should be noted that with regards to statistical scarcity, you've given yourself quite an uphill battle in the PTS category by taking two low-scoring specialists with your 2nd and 3rd picks. Durant is the leading scorer in the league, but even he won't be enough to make up for taking 9-10 ppg players in the 2nd and 3rd round when everyone else is picking up players who usually score significantly more. The amount of 18-20+ ppg scorers really drops past the first few rounds (particularly those with good FG%), leaving you with few options for significantly impacting the PTS and %s categories. That could become a big problem if Rondo continues to be very average in FG% and Ibaka doesn't score a lot more than he did last season.

Edit: In the end, I think you may be focusing on what picking Rondo so early brings to the table, and not as much on what it takes off the table. Taking Rondo maintains a decent FG% and lets you not worry about AST and STL, but also hurts you a lot in PTS, 3PTM, FT%, and TOs. After considering all the give-and-take, I'm not sure the net gain justifies a 3rd round pick.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:45 am

Know most of you use BBM when drafting your teams, but have noticed (especially in some of these pick write-ups) that there's become a tendency to overuse it. While it's important to be aware of where you are in each of the nine categories and make sure you don't overkill or undershoot a certain one, you don't want your draft decisions - early on, specifically - to be dictated by this alone. As long as you avoid any categorical extremes (we're talking 3-4+ standard deviations over/under a categorical mean), you should be fine. The objective is to accrue as much value as you can early on (BPA) then fill in the categorical gaps in the middle to later rounds with the stock of specialists that should be readily available. Not to single anyone out, but the Rondo pick is a prime example of putting too much emphasis on categorical strengths/weaknesses and not nearly enough on overall value.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:43 am

What ive been saying all along though, and from the mocks that i have seen so far, there is plenty of scorers, ft%, and 3s to be had later in the draft. Im perfectly aware of what Rondo doesnt give u in those cats, but those areas are certainly the easiest to make up for later. Not to mention im not in a huge hole in those areas thanks to Durant. We'll see as the draft progresses how it turns out. I personally believe it will work out well, but we shall see..

I do agree with the idea of drafting for BPA. Thats certainly the goal for most of the draft, but theres times where u can draw the line and draft for balance in mind. Now yes, most of the time u dont want to do it in the first 3 rounds, but if you have a dominant player like Durant or Lebron on your team then you can certainly afford to overdraft a player for necessity. Like i said, thats the only way i would consider taking a risk like that for a 3rd round pick.
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