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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:26 am

Grounded Polo wrote:Anyone care to play devil's advocate on Dragic? I'm sure to take him in a real draft, everyone looks good sans small sample size.


Well the only thing I've got is his career %s are like 44% fg and 74% ft, so the 49/84 %s he put up as a starter last year may not be a sure thing to be repeated. But he certainly rates to be good in points, 3s, assists and steals and will have all the minutes he could want so it's pretty hard to be all that pessimistic on him there.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Aug 21, 2012 3:56 am

Rounders Block wrote:Can we just get bokzg to take over this thread and break down all of our picks? This is excellent stuff.

Yep. He gets my vote for any honorary position we so choose to designate. :-)

In all seriousness, what bokzg is doing is something I've always wished others would have done in the past. Outsiders bringing in their point of view and challenging the decisions made in the draft. Hope it continues. ;-D
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Aug 21, 2012 4:21 am

dcdoorknob wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:Anyone care to play devil's advocate on Dragic? I'm sure to take him in a real draft, everyone looks good sans small sample size.


Well the only thing I've got is his career %s are like 44% fg and 74% ft, so the 49/84 %s he put up as a starter last year may not be a sure thing to be repeated. But he certainly rates to be good in points, 3s, assists and steals and will have all the minutes he could want so it's pretty hard to be all that pessimistic on him there.

Well, the Suns could be bad. Really bad. They underwent a semi-rebuild on the fly assembling a bunch of questionable parts. For a player who immensely relies on confidence, lots of frustration could lead to a down season.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:25 pm

Curious as to why you think Marcus Thornton deserves to be on the top 25 Justin.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:31 pm

RedHopeful wrote:Curious as to why you think Marcus Thornton deserves to be on the top 25 Justin.


More curious why you don't think he deserves to be in the top-25. The numbers certainly support it, and I consistently ranked him there on the Big Board throughout last season.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Aug 21, 2012 9:45 pm

Rounders Block wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:Curious as to why you think Marcus Thornton deserves to be on the top 25 Justin.


More curious why you don't think he deserves to be in the top-25. The numbers certainly support it, and I consistently ranked him there on the Big Board throughout last season.

Because it's SAC. Because they've just landed TRob. Because Cousins is poised to become a monster. Because Tyreke Evans is still there. Number of reasons dude. If his value were to just drop in the neighborhood of .05, you're looking at a significant drop in value. I know what he did last season and of course all the numbers with it but it doesn't mean as much to next season projections. It's a volatile situation and I'm not sold his prior year value escapes it unscathed. Sounds like you obviously do.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby mbuser » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:10 pm

Thornton has also never played a full season and there are a lot of bodies in SAC for the 1-3. I think Thornton is pretty clearly the best of them, but we need Smart to agree. I don't think anyone would be shocked if a healthy Thornton finished the season in the top 25, but he won't go before R3 in many drafts.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby geodbear » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:15 pm

mbuser wrote:Thornton has also never played a full season and there are a lot of bodies in SAC for the 1-3. I think Thornton is pretty clearly the best of them, but we need Smart to agree. I don't think anyone would be shocked if a healthy Thornton finished the season in the top 25, but he won't go before R3 in many drafts.


I'd agree with this. I do like Red's response, "Because it's SAC." And it will be up to Smart to sort that all out. I'd like to see some trades (in real life) made on that team, but don't know how possible that is. I also think no one would be shocked if Thornton finished the season outside the top 50 either.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:19 pm

bokzg wrote:That's a lot of "ifs" for an early pick IMO. It's certainly possible Wall puts up those numbers, but too much of a gamble for me that early. Then again, I can be conservative at times, so take that as you will.
Yup, it certainly is a lot of if's. :-D There are a couple of things going on with this pick. First, I do actually think that Wall will be very good in this year. I think Washington has the players in place to help him better some of his to-date career numbers and I think Wall has a tremendous ceiling and skills and athleticism to get there. There's a part of me that wants to be even more enthusiastic about his potential this year but I'm trying to hold firmly to a reasonable level of expectation (with mixed success). Second, I was in the middle of projecting where I thought Wall would be for my personal rankings when this pick came up, and I think a little more of my enthusiasm than was warranted filtered over to the mock. That said, I'm within a round of where I think he'll end up so while it's a reach I'm not in the least bit upset about it.

bokzg wrote:Just out of curiosity, did you think it was very likely someone else would have taken him before he made it back to you in the next round? I'd be curious to know if anyone else was considering Wall this early.
I'm actually not sure. If a guy like Dragic is going to go then Wall probably would have gone as well, but there's no saying for sure. If I was picking mid-round I probably would have drafted Cousins and let Wall slide but when you're picking at the turn sometimes you need to put on your big boy pants and draft the guy you want. That said, I still probably should have drafted Cousins. :-b
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Tue Aug 21, 2012 10:49 pm

RedHopeful wrote:
Rounders Block wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:Curious as to why you think Marcus Thornton deserves to be on the top 25 Justin.


More curious why you don't think he deserves to be in the top-25. The numbers certainly support it, and I consistently ranked him there on the Big Board throughout last season.


Because it's SAC. Because they've just landed TRob. Because Cousins is poised to become a monster. Because Tyreke Evans is still there. Number of reasons dude. If his value were to just drop in the neighborhood of .05, you're looking at a significant drop in value. I know what he did last season and of course all the numbers with it but it doesn't mean as much to next season projections. It's a volatile situation and I'm not sold his prior year value escapes it unscathed. Sounds like you obviously do.


Don't buy any of this, really. The Kings under Smart were night and day compared to where they were with Westphal -- young talent was actually developed, there was team chemistry, and there was stability. If you watched T-Rob at all in Summer League, you'd have seen he's a ways away from making a significant impact. If he can't dominate against that level of competition, I'm not even sure he can win the starting job from Jason Thompson. Tyreke has been there. Played 63 games at 34 mpg. Why does his presence suddenly impact Thornton's production? Cousins can become that monster, but the two were both averaging 16+ attempts a game in February/March. They'll co-exist.

mbuser wrote:Thornton has also never played a full season and there are a lot of bodies in SAC for the 1-3. I think Thornton is pretty clearly the best of them, but we need Smart to agree. I don't think anyone would be shocked if a healthy Thornton finished the season in the top 25, but he won't go before R3 in many drafts.


There's some reason for concern here, given the presence of Reke, Salmons & Garcia. Even Brooks could cut into some of the time that Thornton traditionally sees at the point. Over the final two months his minutes were scaled back (partly due to injury) to 32 mpg, and he was still posting near top-25 value. Can't see him dropping much further below that threshold.

Anyone else thinking the Kings finally unload Tyreke this year in a trade?
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