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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Grounded Polo » Wed Aug 22, 2012 11:59 pm

Teague's numbers could actually slip despite Iso-Joe leaving since they picked up Devin Harris, he'll definitely get too many minutes and they're too small to play together.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby mbuser » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:13 am

As of now, they've got no choice but to play "too" small. You are looking at Korver/Morrow getting most of the SF minutes, with Harris and Lou Williams getting plenty of run at SG.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 23, 2012 1:51 am

Rounders Block wrote:There was a lot of changeover at the back-end of Smart's rotation last season, where we'd see Jimmer & Garcia routinely pile up DNP-CD's during stretches, mainly because Smart wasn't interested in throwing guys out there just for the heck of it. Obviously a lot of guys at the 1-3 spots as you listed, but a ton of bad to below-average options there as well. Brooks, Fredette (10.8 PER), Garcia (10.7), and wait, it gets better ... Salmons (9.7!!). Are you listing guys just to list them, or do you legitimately believe any one of them will seriously push Thornton for minutes? These things get sorted out, and this isn't a case like the Spurs where there's legitimate depth and a real reason to push their rotation 9-10 players deep. I'm confident Thornton will get 30+ minutes a game next season because he's clearly the best player out of that whole group (Reke included), and any reasonable coach (which Smart is) will realize you can't expect to win games without your 2nd best player on the floor. Especially with his backups being as bad as they are.

I totally acknowledge the downside there, but I just don't buy it is all.


Freely admit that there are a lot of questionable players in that rotation, but the mere fact that the team has so many options who could eat up minutes has to at least give you pause.

Jimmer may have played terribly last season, but it's not hard to imagine that the team may feel it has a vested interest in him and put pressure on the coach to play him. Look at how much PT he got last season despite playing terribly. All the talk during summer league was about the coaching staff trying to help him reach his potential, and I think it's highly unlikely that his minutes would come from the PG spot where they already have Isaiah and Brooks.

Salmons did not play very well either last season, but he still managed to start for most of the games he played and got significant PT every game. Also, they're paying him too much to sit him.

Garcia is not a great player and didn't play that well last season, but he also managed to get 10+ min/g whenever he was healthy. He's a clear candidate to sit amongst the SG options on the team, but he clearly has the type of game that coaches like because he's gotten significant minutes from several coaches despite mediocre production.

Whether Tyreke is better than Thornton or not, he will always get substantial PT simply because of how great he played in his first couple of seasons and the team's hope that he will rediscover that version of himself. It's been shown every season, and I don't see any reason why they'd suddenly stop now when they're reaching the point where they need to make a final decision on him. The PG experiment didn't work out, he didn't do great as an SF, and his best games have come while he was playing SG. Not sure how well he meshes with Thornton either since both are scorers

TWill was a marginal player last season, but also kept getting 10+ minutes of PT.

James Johnson was sought after by the team in the offseason for a reason, and could arguably eat up a lot of PT by being a glue guy surrounded by so many scorers.

Smart was the coach last season and was involved in giving all of those guys (other than Johnson) the PT they got, so it's not unreasonable to suspect that he may continue doing so. I don't think it's as simple as the Kings wanting to win and Thornton being one of the key players in pulling that off. I think the team is still trying to figure out what they have and discovery an identity, and that's going to involve experimenting and giving different players PT.

You know me. I'm the conversative type and thus would hesitate to put him in the top 25-30. Thornton was doing most of his damage when he was getting 35+ min/g, and I don't see him getting that much PT barring injuries or a trade (which there's been no indication of). However, I would not be surprised at all if others took him then based on his potential, particularly since the SG pool is not as deep as it used to be. Definitely wouldn't fault anyone for doing so either.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 2:41 am

First rookie draft blood has been drawn. I think it's actually a little early for Davis considering who is still on the board at PF/C. By my count there are at least three or four guys left at PF/C who should be drafted before Davis. The allure of the rookie is hard to pass on though, especially with a guy as talented as Davis, so I guess there's that.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:05 am

Don't really want to draw this out, and since I'm cool with just agreeing to disagree, just gonna leave some brief closing thoughts on that Kings rotation. Excluding that last month where Thornton was hurt and Jimmer got added run in his absence, Jimmer's PT reflected his play. His mpg last year month-by-month: 25, 23, 14, 14. Like I mentioned, Smart wasn't afraid to DNP-CD him when he was struggling. He did it last year and he'll do it again this year if things don't improve. I'm not with you that they feel much vested interest in him. He's a 10th pick, and guys taken there on average give you an expected EWA on the level of Erick Dampier. It's clear he won't be much more than an eventual 3rd-4th guard. Everyone sees it, and I don't think they're jaded enough not to either. It says a lot that Smart was able to develop/foster a lot of the young talent on that roster (Isaiah, Thornton, Cousins) and that Jimmer was the lone exception.

They paid $3M for Brooks and a '14 second-round pick for an expiring James Johnson. Didn't heavily invest, not really tied to either. Johnson is a combo forward too, and he'll get some run at the 4 as well. Reke's PER at SF last year was 17; PER at SG was 15.5. In '11 it was 17.2 at SF, 13.3 at SG. If it isn't gonna work at SF then it's not gonna work at all. SG isn't the answer for him. While I don't buy that playing Garcia/T-Will will come at the expense of Thornton, I do buy your point that Smart will experiment to see what he has on his hands. But he'll do that amongst that group like he did last season. Out of Jimmer, Garcia, and T-Will someone is going to get squeezed, and they'll be fighting for scraps and playing time between themselves. Not to eat into Thornton's minutes. If Jimmer gets hot T-Will will be the DNP-CD and Garcia gets 8-10 mpg. You can switch around those roles depending on their performance. Just because they're all on the roster and have played 10-15 mpg in the past doesn't mean they'll continue to do so. Not when you have someone as talented as Thornton there.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:18 am

I'm with Rounder on this one. Thorton has been too good in Sacramento for me to worry too much about him losing minutes to scrubby players.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:37 am

With the odd injuries this year, I think it might be the best time to tank FT% in a roto league. You could reach a tiny bit and land a dream team IMO if you ended up with a late pick.

Dwight in the third, Griffin who knows where, Bogut falling, Rondo, Iggy, Duncan, Chandler, Faried, Hibbert, Gerald Wallace, Davis, etc. If you could stumble into three good picks early then you'd have a nice foundation to reach each round later.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Thu Aug 23, 2012 3:48 am

Fenris-77 wrote:First rookie draft blood has been drawn. I think it's actually a little early for Davis considering who is still on the board at PF/C. By my count there are at least three or four guys left at PF/C who should be drafted before Davis. The allure of the rookie is hard to pass on though, especially with a guy as talented as Davis, so I guess there's that.


It's understandable that people's projections for incoming rookies will vary more than for your average NBA vet, but I just think Davis' game projects pretty darn well for fantasy, even for his rookie year. I know there are other good bigs still there but I really believe Davis will be quite good himself, and I had him slightly above the other bigs available. Obviously if I was more to the center of the draft I could try to leave him for myself just a bit later but when you're not picking again for 22 picks sometimes you've just got to grab your guy.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:54 pm

What a difference a year makes. Everyone remembers how early Blake Griffin was drafted last year, but I still fear he'll go too early in most leagues. Matt/Justin/other rankers, where do you guys have him on your board? (provided he has no setbacks with his most recent knee surgery)
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby mbuser » Thu Aug 23, 2012 10:31 pm

Well I do imagine a cafe roto league will qualify as a low point for his draft position. I actually saw him go 13 in a h2h mock where Howard had fallen to 12. I don't see him falling in most h2h leagues, period. Remove FT% and TO and he's seventh overall for the past two seasons (0.62) - not too shabby. Roto leagues, it will depend on the room.
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