1.10 - Dirk Nowitzki (F/C - Dal) - Dirk has been a 1st round talent in FBB since I started playing the game and I don't expect him to fall outside the 1st round this year. If he does, he'll likely be just outside. He's an absolute Roto beast, chipping in everywhere but the defensive stats. His FG% leaves something to be desired, but for years now, he's had one of the biggest positive impact on FT% out of any player in the NBA. I'll be able to address my lack of blocks with bigs who don't have the best FT%, while still being competitive in that category.
This was a unique draft position for me. With Gasol, Deron Williams, and upside in Kyrie Irving, gambling on Bynum and his new situation in Philly seemed like a logical choice (despite saying not long ago I didn't want to draft Bynum in the first because of his knee issues).
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1.12 Pau Gasol (FC - LAL) - I'll be honest I"m not entirely sure how the Nash and Dwight additions will affect Pau's fantasy line exactly. Rebounds could take a modest hit. Possibly assists too with a really ball-dominant backcourt. On the other end it wouldn't surprise me to see a sterling fg% (Nash/Pau pick and rolls? yes please) and slightly lower TOs. Pau ends up in the top 15 in 9-cat per game rankings like every year, and I don't expect this year to be an exception, even if the exact values of his various stats is a little cloudy.
Another big in consideration was Millsap, but with both he and Pau on board I'll opt for the one who doesn't have radio announcers currently speculating that he'll come off the bench (even though I think Millsap will very likely have another fine fantasy year overall).
2.1 Kyrie Irving (PG - Cle) - He was *only* in the mid 30s in 9-cat per game value last year, but it was obviously his rookie year, and it was in only around 30 mpg. If you combine natural 2nd year progression with more mpg, it's not that hard to see a player worth a pick this high, imo. He's consistently shown an aptitude for great %s, 3s, points, assists and steals, which is really about all you could want from an elite fantasy pg. Plus it's not like other options here are without there own question marks of various sizes, imo.
Other options here for me are Deron and Lowry, but I've never been the biggest fan of Deron in fantasy (did you know that, according to BBM, he's never once put up top 25 9-cat per game value in his career?), and Lowry is just in an unkown situation on what rates to be a bad team (that still has Calderon), and although he's flashed first round value before he's never yet sustained it for a full year either, so there's a bit more uncertainty there than I'd like.
On behalf of silentjim: 2.02 Deron Williams (PG - BRO)
It's strange because I'm not a huge fan of Deron Williams and his fantasy value, but I like the idea of pairing him with Bynum early and balancing the risk and reward there. Ideally I wouldn't have minded going Bynum and Gasol, but being balanced isn't horrible either.
I was happy to see Millsap was available for my second pick. This early on in the draft, it's best to go BPA and to start looking at team needs later. There's reason for concern at this point, given the fact that Favors will be challenging him for not just minutes but even the starting job at PF. But I believe Millsap will prevail and stake the claim to the starting gig, logging in somewhere around the 32.8 minutes he logged last year...even if a small chunk of them come at the SF position.
Last edited by phx_2008_champs on Sun Aug 19, 2012 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
What explanation is needed? He is the best player on the planet.
After the top 15 in drafts, 16 is one of the dicier spots. I flat out do not trust Lowry or Cousins enough yet to draft them this high, way too much risk. Marc Gasol is a great pick here but better off with a Westbrook owner. After drafting Smoove, I'm playing catch up in points and FT% and Gasol is a bad fit. Kobe fills those needs instantly, a guaranteed 25 PPG and 85% free throw shooter on 7-8 attempts a night. His FG% was ugly last year but with the Nash addition, he'll be completely relieved of his addition role as the only guy who could create offense for others, plus he should have his lowest turnover numbers in years. Kobe will probably end up ranked closer to 25 than 15 but his bust factor is about as nonexistent as it gets and given how well he compliments Smoove's strengths, I'll happily take him here.
Wanted to pick up a PG early to go with my big and didn't think I'd necessarily get it in the 3rd round. Lawson posted high 2nd round numbers over the last two months. He also has one of the better fg% of the other point guards in this draft range.
Steady improvements in his first four seasons in the league and should be looking at a career-high usage with Joe Johnson out of town. I doubt many would be surprised if Horford finished in the top 10 for 9-cat roto purposes.
Well this is what's going to happen picking from the middle of the pack throughout the draft...had my sights set on Ty Lawson, and he goes just two picks before me. Horford would have also been a serious consideration for all the reasons Buser made - plus, I just happen to like bigs who can shoot free throws over 70%.
But as far as consolation prizes go, I think Conley will be a nice pairing to go with LMA. Good solid all around player, with a great situation in Memphis. And by picking up Conley, I start to build on a critical cat which gets harder to fill going forward - STLs. That's the primary reason I chose Conley over the only other PG I would have considered here, Kyle Lowry. Although there are still other value players on the board, there were no other players I was considering other than PGs (Lawson, Conley, Lowry). If this had been a h2h mock, I might have taken the chance that Grounded Polo said he wouldn't by picking up Lowry here. But for roto purposes, and that extra .5 STLs per game which is huge, I'm happy "settling" for Conley.
Even on those gimpy ankles, he put up top 15 per game value last season. It's a gamble for sure but the payoff is huge. I'm betting on his contract extension that he's been doing all the right things since his season ended prematurely last year. Realistically he'll still probably miss some games but that's readily more absorbed in roto leagues.
Had I not drafted Wade in the first round, I likely would have taken Ibaka here.