Harden traded to Houston

[reptar15]

Look are you really gonna bet on him shooting this badly all season. the TO's are correctible. Does he need some more help, you bet. That's a young team that's got some growing to do. What we're looking at here is the floor.

look at his fg% his previous seasons
very few guards can shoot near 50%

houston's roster is terrible and he will have pressure to carry the offensive load

[bujfan2030]

So 17th ranked after 15 games, 15th ranked over his last 9. Just so over-rated

[silentjim]

So 17th ranked after 15 games, 15th ranked over his last 9. Just so over-rated

Over the last two days he's been ranked 168th.

[bujfan2030]

silentjim wrote
Over the last two days he's been ranked 168th.

Yeah but my sample size is much bigger than yours

[deadshot11]

So 17th ranked after 15 games, 15th ranked over his last 9. Just so over-rated

The question was never is he a good fantasy player. The question was whether the move to Houston would improve or hurt his fantasy value. He was ranked around 17th heading into the season, so him being ranked 17th currently just shows that so far it's a wash.

No one was really saying he's overrated. I WAS saying he's overrated if you assume he's automatically a 1st rounder after the trade.

[bujfan2030]

Maybe not you, but there were plenty arguing he'd lose value. And he does have the kind of game that could eventually become first round value. Almost any kind of effeciency increase(to his career averages) would boost him there.

[deadshot11]

Oh, I was certainly arguing that it's more likely he'll fall to 3rd round value than increase to 1st round value. People underestimate how hard it is to produce first round value. Deron's been trying forever and still can't do it. Yes, it would require Harden's efficiency to increase, and no, I don't think that's going to happen this year in Houston. I still think his efficiency will be lower, and hence, he'll underperform a 17th preseason ranking.

[Rounders Block]

Oh, I was certainly arguing that it's more likely he'll fall to 3rd round value than increase to 1st round value. People underestimate how hard it is to produce first round value. Deron's been trying forever and still can't do it. Yes, it would require Harden's efficiency to increase, and no, I don't think that's going to happen this year in Houston. I still think his efficiency will be lower, and hence, he'll underperform a 17th preseason ranking.

We get it.

My .02: It's very encouraging that he's 16th in per-game at this point. It's encouraging that he's taken on such a sudden increase in usage and minutes and posted near-first-round value. His rank may be 16, but he's a mere .05 in value from Davis/Marc at 11/12. That's next to nothing. Still strongly disagree that he's more likely to post 3rd-round value than first, and the numbers back me on this. You have to take the long-term look here; mostly, look at some of the guys ranked ahead of him now: Duncan, Bosh, Varejao, Noah, Kidd. You can even expand that to Batum and Anthony Davis. How many of those guys do you expect to continue on this pace? One or two? Maybe three? As those guys regress, the cream will naturally start to rise. The way I look at it, once you take out some of those early outliers, Harden's TRUE rank is somewhere around 9 or 10. In my eyes he's lived up to those initial expectations, and unless you can offer up some reason why he can't maintain his pace, he should be viewed as a legit first-rounder moving forward.