Fantasy Basketball Cafe Forums

by **Wyze** » Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:16 pm

As we all know, Gerald Wallace is a fantasy stud, a guy who can fill the sheet on any given night, in everything from points to blocks - but only when he's healthy.

My question is how do you guys feel about Wallace in the long run as the season progresses.

Are his stints of brilliance worth the 15-20 games he may miss over the season?
How long does it take him to fully gel with Williams and Johnson, how will this affect his fantasy production?

Bottom line:
Do you look to ship him off now, before his value falls any further?
Do you for him to string together a couple nice games before you ship him off?
Or do you put up with his injuries, simply because he is a stat filler?

Of course all these questions are hypothetical, and really up the the discretion of the team manager.

by **plonden** » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:20 pm

Wyze wrote:Do you look to ship him off now, before his value falls any further?
Do you for him to string together a couple nice games before you ship him off?
Or do you put up with his injuries, simply because he is a stat filler?

Personally, I have a philosophy of never selling low on players unless your back is absolutely against the wall. At this point in the season, your back should definitely not be against the wall. G-Wall's case right now is instructive on this point. His value is pretty low right now. In fact, this may be the low point of the entire season. He my sit out a few more games, but he sounds like he is pretty close to being back on the court. Once he is back and proves that he is healthy, his value will start to climb back up to where you expected it would be when you drafted him. You don't necessarily have to Sell High but moving Wallace for pennies on the dollar right now is selling at a certain loss. In fact, I'm more inclined to be the one trying to Buy Low on Wallace at this point than to make a panic move.

On the last question, I would argue that Wallace has been relatively durable the last few seasons.
2011-12: 58/66 games (including a midseason trade, which may be responsible for 1-2 missed games)
2010-11: 71/82 games (including a midseason trade, which may be responsible for 1-2 missed games)
2009-10: 76/82 games
2008-09: 71/82 games (including a collapsed lung courtesy of Andrew Bynum)

While admittedly he has missed a few games each of the last four seasons, he is no Eric Gordon. It's not inconceivable that Wallace could not miss another game this season after he returns from this ankle injury. So you would have held Wallace for his x number of injured games only to Sell Low to another manager, who then gets to benefit from a healthy Wallace for the remainder of a season.

This is my overall philosophy. Of course, you will get burned every now and then by this philosophy. But that's the exception rather than the rule. Overall, though, it prevents you from selling your assets at a loss, which is a certain recipe for disaster. Assuming you've drafted well and have the ability to spot talent, you have a good chance of realizing the value you initially saw in the player rather than selling at a definite loss.

TL;DR: Don't sell Wallace now.