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how good do you have to be to win?

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how good do you have to be to win?

Postby dewgongoo » Mon Apr 01, 2013 4:23 pm

If my first round pick returns first round value and my second round pick returns second round value and so on, would my team to be good enough to take first?

I'm thinking that winning teams on average have fourth or fifth round value overall, based on my gut, no math involved.
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Re: how good do you have to be to win?

Postby ggs » Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:26 pm

gotta have at least some of your picks outproduce their ADP I'd think, otherwise all else being equal your team would be average. Fair amount of luck as well, as you've got to avoid those injuries.
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Re: how good do you have to be to win?

Postby geodbear » Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:02 pm

Also depends on the competitiveness of the league you are in. You do need players that outplay their draft position or the waiver wire specials. I think in competitive a league, you are toast if you lose your first round draft pick for most of the season (I'm looking at you Kevin Love). First rounders should hold at least top 30 value I think, provided you do well with your other picks. Injuries/luck as stated above is a factor.

If all your players hold value from where you draft them, I don't think it's enough. Teams that hit on the end of the bench draft picks or with waiver pick ups will do better than a team that holds value.
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Re: how good do you have to be to win?

Postby Yilun » Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:42 pm

For me, outperforming your ADP (average draft position) is a huge key as ggs mentioned.

But also, it's about synergy, especially for H2H leagues.

If you try to build a team by stretching for every category, you'll end up with a team that is mediocre in everything and dominant in nothing. I've built teams like this before in the past and even if individually they all have decent fantasy years, it may not translate to weekly victories depending on your competition.

Instead, I try to build teams that are really geared towards a certain set of categories, almost like a "specialist" team. Recently, I won a very competitive keeper league with my friends using this type of "specialist" build.

My roster was:
Jeff Teague
Jamal Crawford
JJ Redick
Kevin Durant
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Ryan Anderson
Roy Hibbert
Brandon Wright
Jerryd Bayless
Jermaine O'neal
Beno Udrih
Robin Lopez

My team was completely dominant in FT%, treys, and points. In most weeks, they would be very competitive in rebounds, blocks and TO's as well. And during certain weeks, when my team collectively shoots well, they are hard to beat in FG% too. I've completely thrown assists and steals out the window and focused on 6 main categories and remaining relatively competitive in a 7th.

By drafting this style of team, the idea is to continue to augment the strengths that you already so that you can dominate in certain categories. If I had instead replaced Ryan Anderson with another PG to reach for assists and Roy Hibbert with a "steals" specialist, I would not have nearly been as competitive in blocks, rebounds, and treys as I would have been. Similarly, having another PG and a "steals" specialist would not have made me any more competitive in those 2 categories compared to the other teams in the league who were "dominant" in those categories. I would have effectively neutered my team in terms of it's competitiveness by trying to "reach" for too many categories.

Hope this makes sense. Probably one of the biggest flaws that newcomers make when drafting H2H teams.
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