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Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

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Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby boomdaddy » Mon Apr 08, 2013 5:23 am

It is a H2H league. If you had to choose between one of the two, who would you choose, and why?
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby sn267537 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:02 am

Holliday has more experience, and should be a solid force at PG as a fantasy option. Holliday I think will give more oprotunities for assists.
Lillard is younger, and it's not certain he will be a consistent producer like Holliday. Lillard I think will make/shoot more 3PT.

I think Portland is the better team in terms of players on the team. Phi could be better, but that's if Bynum is healthy and actually plays with the team.

This is a difficult choice. Cases can be made for both. Holliday seems to be the safer keeper, but lillard could improve his play(assists).

I think I'll end by saying: theyre pretty even, but which ever has the better ADP might be who I keep, and try to draft the other who has a later ADP.
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby jphanned » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:23 am

Upside doesn't really play here given that Jrue is just a month older than Lillard, but I do think Jrue has more room for growth and potential to put up better numbers given their situations. Lillard was pretty much in an ideal spot this season - played ~39 mpg and saw his usage skyrocket as a rookie; Jrue, on the other hand, was stuck in a terrible 76ers offense under Doug Collins that lacked any real creativity or nuance. They're fairly even in value and I suspect they'll be drafted within 5-6 picks of each other, but I'd still take Jrue here.
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby sn267537 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 5:15 am

I think I would keep Holliday too. Just tried to give an opinion for both sides above
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Apr 23, 2013 3:40 pm

Rounders Block wrote:Upside doesn't really play here given that Jrue is just a month older than Lillard, but I do think Jrue has more room for growth and potential to put up better numbers given their situations. Lillard was pretty much in an ideal spot this season - played ~39 mpg and saw his usage skyrocket as a rookie; Jrue, on the other hand, was stuck in a terrible 76ers offense under Doug Collins that lacked any real creativity or nuance. They're fairly even in value and I suspect they'll be drafted within 5-6 picks of each other, but I'd still take Jrue here.

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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Apr 25, 2013 5:41 am

Rounders Block wrote:Upside doesn't really play here given that Jrue is just a month older than Lillard, but I do think Jrue has more room for growth and potential to put up better numbers given their situations. Lillard was pretty much in an ideal spot this season - played ~39 mpg and saw his usage skyrocket as a rookie; Jrue, on the other hand, was stuck in a terrible 76ers offense under Doug Collins that lacked any real creativity or nuance. They're fairly even in value and I suspect they'll be drafted within 5-6 picks of each other, but I'd still take Jrue here.

I don't necessarily disagree. but it seems like you want to to make the Blazers supporting cast look better than it was. Aside from Aldridge, with a thin veneer of Batum, Lillard made his ROY season out of nothing on a terrible team. I don't get how Jrue's season in Philly was really that much more handicapped than Lillard's season in Portland. Aside from that, I might also point out that comparing ages isn't the same as comparing NBA service time, and Jrue has had a lot more time to acclimate to the NBA game than Lillard has despite the similarity in ages. That might not make Lillard better, but I think it should certainly shift the axis of interpretation at least a little.
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby jphanned » Thu Apr 25, 2013 6:12 am

Fenris-77 wrote:I don't necessarily disagree. but it seems like you want to to make the Blazers supporting cast look better than it was. Aside from Aldridge, with a thin veneer of Batum, Lillard made his ROY season out of nothing on a terrible team. I don't get how Jrue's season in Philly was really that much more handicapped than Lillard's season in Portland. Aside from that, I might also point out that comparing ages isn't the same as comparing NBA service time, and Jrue has had a lot more time to acclimate to the NBA game than Lillard has despite the similarity in ages. That might not make Lillard better, but I think it should certainly shift the axis of interpretation at least a little.


The point isn't to disparage the Blazers supporting cast. The point is that Lillard's minutes/usage were at historic levels for a rookie. That's largely why he put up such gaudy averages, and also why he won ROY over Davis - who was far more impactful on a per-minute basis. Situation, role, and environment play a big role in player success/development, and there was a huge difference between what Lillard saw in Portland and what Jrue saw with Collins in Philly. If we're predicting future value here, the gap between their two situations is likely to diminish in the future.

As a SCHOENE / Basketball Prospectus disciple, I can assure you that age is far more predictive than service time (total minutes played). A lot of people have praised Lillard for how he was able to adjust to the NBA without much trouble, but that's kinda the point. If you're taking a 22-year old rookie with a top-6 pick, he damn well better be able to contribute right away. Put him in a spot where he's able to get a TON of reps (minutes/shots) right off the bat? Even better. I think a lot of drafters are going to get in trouble next year by pinning the 'rookie' tag on Lillard and expecting the same level of improvement/growth as they usually do 18-20 year olds. That's why I'm far more likely to be bearish when it comes to him than bullish.
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby Fenris-77 » Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:54 am

On the flip side there are lots of rookies, I might even say most rookies, who would have floundered given Lillard's workload, regardless of their age or anything else. I completely agree that his gaudy minutes went a long way to produce the counting stats, but the fact that he handled such a huge workload with so little help is impressive in and of itself.

I wasn't suggesting that age isn't more predictive than service time, you and I agree on that, it was more about indexing the rather startling accomplishment by Lillard of playing 38 minutes a game as an NBA rookie and not really hitting the wall. Guards all have a learning curve in the NBA regardless of age, and Lillard and Holiday just had remarkably similar seasons. They both shot .430/.370, and both got to the line at about the same rate. Lillard made twice as many threes and shot better from the line. Holiday rebounds a little better, and has a decided advantage in steals, and dropped more dimes, so he has that going for him. That said, the assists are partially a product of familiarity with the team and system, and I think I can be forgiven for projecting some growth there for Lillard, and I think assists next year are a wash at best. But back to service time - since these guys are almost exactly the same age, service time is one of the things that separates them. Once you adjust Lillard's projections for the getting-to-know-the-NBA learning curve I don't think they look far apart at all.

Again, none of this is to say that Lillard is better, but I think they're about even if you aren't being wildly bullish on one and not the other. Jrue is more of a proven commodity, but Lillard probably has a titch more upside at this point, especially on the scoring side.
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby spud_webb_04 » Wed May 08, 2013 8:55 pm

Nice commentary
I'd go Lillard (but they do are close) because i see him get even better
If you see what a guy like rivers did with alot of minutes :-o
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Re: Who to keep? Holiday or Lillard?

Postby ajm5551 » Sat Jul 20, 2013 5:40 pm

Considering that lillard is still with the trail blazers and holiday is now on a new team.... I would personally keep lillard because I believe that LaMarcus Aldridge will be able to help out lillard a ton!
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