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2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby Da Ruhl » Wed Aug 07, 2013 5:02 pm

I'd add to the third year buyout discussion that, to me, 50% of the average of the third and fourth year salary makes more sense to me than 50% of the third year. Basically, I think that:

3rd year 15 4th year 16

should be a more expensive buyout than

3rd year 15 4th year 14

That said, it is a small difference and is more complicated, so I don't feel strongly. And while this is my objective view, it may also relate to trade discussions and/or FA bidding strategies I'm thinking about, so may be partially driven by self-interest (full disclosure).

Just my 2c...

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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby silentjim » Wed Aug 07, 2013 5:36 pm

Da Ruhl wrote:I'd add to the third year buyout discussion that, to me, 50% of the average of the third and fourth year salary makes more sense to me than 50% of the third year. Basically, I think that:

3rd year 15 4th year 16

should be a more expensive buyout than

3rd year 15 4th year 14

That said, it is a small difference and is more complicated, so I don't feel strongly. And while this is my objective view, it may also relate to trade discussions and/or FA bidding strategies I'm thinking about, so may be partially driven by self-interest (full disclosure).

Just my 2c...

-DR


I actually hadn't given this a ton of thought since we are just now getting into the 3rd and 4th years of contracts for big guys, but I do agree that it should cost more to buyout the 3rd and 4th year of a player who has a back loaded contract. Since the wording of buying out a 4 year contract in the off season after the first two years seems to have confused some people, why don't we just say it's 25% of the 3rd year and 25% of the 4th year all to be paid this upcoming season?

That way if it was an original contract that was 60M (15M, 15M, 15M, 15M) in order to buy out the contract in the third year you'd be in for 25% of the third year (3.75M) and 25% of the 4th year (3.75M) for a grand total of 7.5M to be paid (which would equal the current 50%. But if you had a frontloaded contract that was 62M (17M, 16M, 15M, 14M) then you'd pay 25% of 15M (3.75M) and 25% of 14M (3.5M) for a total of 7.25M. And if it was backloaded: 58M (13M, 14M, 15M, 16M) you'd pay 25% of 15M (3.75M) and 25% of 16M (4M) for a total of 7.75.

That makes sense right? And should be better than averaging salaries?
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby scully19 » Thu Aug 08, 2013 12:17 am

That does make sense, and IS averaging salaries. Does this include Gortat?
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby dasein » Thu Aug 08, 2013 1:13 am

scully19 wrote:That does make sense, and IS averaging salaries. Does this include Gortat?


No, because that's not how the rule is currently. If it is to be changed, it will have to happen next season at the earilest. Way too late in the piece to go changing it now.
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby scully19 » Thu Aug 08, 2013 1:21 am

Assumed not, but just making sure because I was editing the spreadsheet and didn't want to get it wrong and have it pass-by unnoticed.
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 08, 2013 1:57 am

scully19 wrote:That does make sense, and IS averaging salaries. Does this include Gortat?


Sorry. I didn't necessarily mean it wasn't averaging a salary, I just meant it seems easier to understand that you're paying 25% of each year as opposed to 50% of the average salary. :-) O:-)

I could personally see this including Gortat or any other player from this off season that a manager brings up that's been bought out of two years of a four year deal. I think it's only fair that the buyout consider both years of a deal not just one, whether it be front or back loaded. It shouldn't be a ton of money, but I think it makes sense.
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby scully19 » Thu Aug 08, 2013 2:48 am

Considering Gortat was the first I believe, and also that he is front loaded and this would actually save money I don't exactly see any harm.
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby dasein » Thu Aug 08, 2013 4:34 am

silentjim wrote: Since the wording of buying out a 4 year contract in the off season after the first two years seems to have confused some people, why don't we just say it's 25% of the 3rd year and 25% of the 4th year all to be paid this upcoming season?


What kind of world would this be if we went changing the rules everytime a couple people misread them? :-)

Let's do some maths.

Under the current rule, buyout = 0.5(BYS + 2i) [where i is the annual increment, bys is year1 salary]
= 0.5BYS + i

Using this new fangled averaging method, buyout = 0.25(BYS + 2i) + 0.25(BYS + 3i)
= 0.5BYS + 1.75i

So the difference between the two is that the averaging one costs a little bit more, to the tune of 75% of whatever the annual increase is. So the maximum possible difference would be about 1.5M - this would come when a team with bird rights gives 15% increases up to the max 20M in year 4. In the vast majority of cases though, the difference will be bugger all. It certainly won't effect a managers choice as to whether or not he excercises the 3rd year buyout.

Now you can use this to support an argument either way- the difference isn't much so why change, or the difference isn't much so why not change. DaRuhl's point does make sense and honestly I don't feel that strongly about it so if you guys are so keen on changing it we best do it now. Scully is right, if we're going to change it best to do it now so it can be applied to the first use (Gortat).

Man, it's taken me like an hour to post this. The cafe keeps crashing out on me. :-[
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby So-Tex » Thu Aug 08, 2013 5:24 am

Yeah, I had a post written up as well, and lost it...

In a nutshell, I don't mind whether the ruling goes either way, this season (for Gortat) or next.

It does make a bit more sense to me though...at least in terms of what "fair" is believed to be.

But I'm good either way...just let me know so I can adjust my books also. ;-D
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Re: 2013-2014 Offseason Transactions

Postby DVauthrin » Thu Aug 08, 2013 4:31 pm

silentjim wrote:
scully19 wrote:That does make sense, and IS averaging salaries. Does this include Gortat?


Sorry. I didn't necessarily mean it wasn't averaging a salary, I just meant it seems easier to understand that you're paying 25% of each year as opposed to 50% of the average salary. :-) O:-)

I could personally see this including Gortat or any other player from this off season that a manager brings up that's been bought out of two years of a four year deal. I think it's only fair that the buyout consider both years of a deal not just one, whether it be front or back loaded. It shouldn't be a ton of money, but I think it makes sense.


If you want to change the rule(which i agree with dasein is unnecessary), just make it 25% of the remainder of the salary for years 3 and 4. problem solved.
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