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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby slawek » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:03 am

Leszczur wrote:The problem is - Dunleavy is nowhere near Butler in terms of D and defense is the flavour of choice for Thibs.
On top of that Mike is getting a little long in the tooth, so my gut feeling is he will come of the bench an play around 24 mpg mainly with second team leaving Jimmy largely unaffected.


When we talk about Bulls' wings let's not forget about Tony Snell. The young gun seems to be good and poised to prove it. I'm not saying he's going to jump in major minutes, but something like 10-15 is not out of question for him. Add the Dunleavy's 24 and we have not so many left for starters.

Surely we can forget about Jimmy playing 48 every single game :-)
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:49 am

Leszczur wrote:The problem is - Dunleavy is nowhere near Butler in terms of D and defense is the flavour of choice for Thibs.
On top of that Mike is getting a little long in the tooth, so my gut feeling is he will come of the bench an play around 24 mpg mainly with second team leaving Jimmy largely unaffected.


See, JJ Redick - a solid defender in his own right - gets this unfair rep too. I'm not sure what it is that makes people assume these guys are bad defenders. Athleticism is but a small part of playing solid, all-around defense.

Dunleavy held opposing SF's to a PER of 10.3 last season. The year before that? 10.1. That's two years of data that tells us that he turns his opposition into the equivalent of Richard Jefferson. As a team defender he's been just as impactful. The Bucks have given up 3.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor over the last two years. They go from the league's sixth best defense (100.4 DRtg) to the 20th best defense (104.0) when he goes to the bench. And that's with Luc Richard Mbah a Moute - who has a rep as a good defender - playing behind him.

Not saying Dunleavy is on the level of Iggy or Smoove, but the notion that he's nowhere near Butler as a defender is completely off-base. The metrics, at least, suggest he's even better.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:24 pm

jphanned wrote:See, JJ Redick - a solid defender in his own right - gets this unfair rep too. I'm not sure what it is that makes people assume these guys are bad defenders. Athleticism is but a small part of playing solid, all-around defense.
...
Not saying Dunleavy is on the level of Iggy or Smoove, but the notion that he's nowhere near Butler as a defender is completely off-base. The metrics, at least, suggest he's even better.


Well - I won't argue with numbers since my notion was based entirely on an "eye test". So I will swallow my tongue and remind myself next time to check facts first :-)
Although my grudge with 82games.com data was always that those numbers are not normalized. Meaning - we do not really know the baseline value of opponents PER. If we assume that average PER of Dunleavy's opponent is 15 - then he did just great, but if it was 8....
Also team DRtg may be influenced by substitution patterns (and some coaches just love that, right?) and the likes, but since my arguments here would have to be of a speculative nature - I'm willing to admit I was dead wrong on him. !+)
Last edited by Leszczur on Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Fri Aug 23, 2013 3:51 pm

slawek wrote:
Leszczur wrote:The problem is - Dunleavy is nowhere near Butler in terms of D and defense is the flavour of choice for Thibs.
On top of that Mike is getting a little long in the tooth, so my gut feeling is he will come of the bench an play around 24 mpg mainly with second team leaving Jimmy largely unaffected.


When we talk about Bulls' wings let's not forget about Tony Snell. The young gun seems to be good and poised to prove it. I'm not saying he's going to jump in major minutes, but something like 10-15 is not out of question for him. Add the Dunleavy's 24 and we have not so many left for starters.

Surely we can forget about Jimmy playing 48 every single game :-)


Thibs is crazy. Not sure Snell will see the light of day unless there are injuries, blowouts, or major foul trouble.

Do the Math and it's not hard to figure out that Butler is going to be solid, but just not have the opportunity to be amazing.

48 Minutes at PG with 36 going to Rose, heck let's say 34 if the Bulls play more conservative. That's 14 available at PG. Keeping in mind Teague is probably good for at least 5 based on issues pointed out above, leaving 9 minutes at PG. 48 Minutes at SG. Realistically I think Hinrich plays 20-25 minutes a game, taking all 9 left PG minutes and let's say 11 minutes from SG. That leaves 37 minutes for Butler and Dunleavy. Even if Dunleavy only averages 20 minutes a game from the 6th man role (probably more like 25) with Deng playing a solid 36 of 48 possible minutes at SF. This means there will be 12 at SF that Dunleavy can take, but then he'll take another 8 from SG which would leave 29 minutes, which would be 3 over what he played on average last season. And this is the conservative minute approach.

The crazy part is Butler put up 3rd round value the last month of the season. But that came from playing 39 minutes a game with Deng out, which will never happen again.

All this being said, I do think Jimmy Butler can produce in limited minutes, but as Justin mentioned, I think his ceiling is extremely limited just because of numbers.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:13 pm

jphanned wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:Wholeheartedly agree about Thibs riding his horses, but ask yourself, hasn't Butler already got one foot onto that wagon?


Thibs needed to ride Butler late into the season because they simply lacked any scoring punch. On the right night Butler could pour in 20 if he needed to. With Rose back that's far less of a concern. Surrounding Rose with floor spacers is much more important, which Dunleavy fills better than most anyone in the league. That's why I'm expecting him to take a healthy chunk out of Butler's mpg.

Yep, but you're failing to grasp Butler's overall performance. Thibs does like to ride starters, and when one goes down, he's all about the next man up philosophy. Had Butler performed anywhere around average, he'd undoubtedly get shifted back down the totem pole. However, some of his performances were exceptional, enough for a stubborn coach to notice. It's probably why Thibs has already named him a starter. If anyone should be worried about minutes, I'd feel it should be Dunleavy before Butler.

Besides, Butler isn't a shoddy 3 point shooter himself (and he's better than Deng). If Thibs is really interested in spacing the floor, I envision Deng getting moved to PF, so that Butler and Dunleavy can be on the floor as well. Now, don't get me wrong, I don't envision Butler being some consistent force, but he's going to do enough positive things on the floor to make him valuable despite possible minutes/usage issues.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:19 pm

If there is one guy I have no idea what to make of anymore, it's Eric Gordon. Dude could morph back into the promising SG we saw in L.A. or continue to be a shell of himself. Watching practically every New Orleans game, I've unfortunately become the pessimist. However, what gives me hope, is that he does seem to be the type of player who tends to perform 'when he feels like it'. What I mean is that he's largely been unhappy during his tenure in the Crescent City. Now that Jrue and Reke have come on board, he might actually start practicing/playing with a sense of purpose again.

Personally, I hope that he does get off to a fine start, so that my beloved franchise can trade him away for value. But let's save that for another conversation. O:-)
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby wesbaedke » Fri Aug 23, 2013 4:36 pm

RedHopeful wrote:If there is one guy I have no idea what to make of anymore, it's Eric Gordon. Dude could morph back into the promising SG we saw in L.A. or continue to be a shell of himself. Watching practically every New Orleans game, I've unfortunately become the pessimist. However, what gives me hope, is that he does seem to be the type of player who tends to perform 'when he feels like it'. What I mean is that he's largely been unhappy during his tenure in the Crescent City. Now that Jrue and Reke have come on board, he might actually start practicing/playing with a sense of purpose again.

Personally, I hope that he does get off to a fine start, so that my beloved franchise can trade him away for value. But let's save that for another conversation. O:-)


Certainly a lot of risk/reward with the pick. EG offers some nice upside but gotta believe Tyreke will limit him a bit (as will Jrue to an extent). Keeping his usage down early in the season is the best thing Monty could do for him until he gets his legs back. It's been awhile. Good spot in the draft to take him but for the stats you were looking for (pts, 3's, steals) I'd personally go with the safer JR Smith at this point and let someone else take on the risk.

**edit - I see there is plenty of risk with JR this upcoming year and his troublesome knee...EG is a nice pick. ;-D
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:42 pm

Was very tempted to pick Tobias Harris at either of my last two picks. Just didn't quite trust the whole ORL situation enough though to feel good about nabbing him.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby plonden » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:48 pm

I was hoping for Harris myself. He certainly got my attention last season.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Fri Aug 23, 2013 10:09 pm

Seems like everyone is scared of him for the same reasons. Why is big baby still in the league? :-D
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