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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 15, 2013 6:55 pm

silentjim wrote:One pick in and Phil is dominating already? What are the rest of us? Chopped Liver? :-D


Don't feel too bad. He could take Byron Mullens in Round 2 and still have the best 1-2 combo in this league (yes, KD is THAT good). :-b
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:21 pm

jphanned wrote:Don't feel too bad. He could take Byron Mullens in Round 2 and still have the best 1-2 combo in this league (yes, KD is THAT good). :-b

Sadly yes, he is that good. :,-( That said I think the notion of recovering via upside extends through the whole draft.

In general, I think that if you get enough guys outperforming their draft slot and you have a shot in any league. That's one of the reasons I try to add a bunch of upside later on in drafts. Boring vets will be on the wire all year, but those breakout guys win you leagues.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby geodbear » Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:38 pm

jphanned wrote:
silentjim wrote:One pick in and Phil is dominating already? What are the rest of us? Chopped Liver? :-D


Don't feel too bad. He could take Byron Mullens in Round 2 and still have the best 1-2 combo in this league (yes, KD is THAT good). :-b


The first fantasy basketball league I ever played in was 20 years ago and that's how it was with Jordan. It was balanced a little because it was an auction league and the manager who got Jordan spent about 1/2 of their money on him. At least, there's Lebron for a pick after KD. Hakeem was great but he was still a still a distant #2 to Jordan.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:57 pm

Some thoughts on the mock draft so far:

CP3 v. Curry
While I understand and appreciate the rationale, I would take CP3 over Curry in every draft simply due to the greater consistency and established value. CP3 has been top 3 for a while now, and even his tendency to miss games hasn't dropped his value much in roto leagues (especially if you have a decent backup PG who you can plug in). Also, his injury risk is ameliorated a bit by the fact that he has a pretty health-friendly old man game now, and has a pretty stocky and solid frame for a player his size. Paul's team situation is also ideal in that he will remain the ball-dominating maestro for his team, with the potential for improvement with better coaching and perimeter shooting around him this season.

Curry, on the other hand, is still a greater injury risk in my mind because of his history and the fact that teams will likely trying to be physical with him this season now that he's officially gained best shooter in the league status. He can work out all he wants, but he's always going to be small and skinny for a NBA player and has both ankles as ticking time bombs. Curry also hasn't shown top 4 or 5 value over multiple seasons, which makes him a greater risk even if healthy. As for his team situation, the Warriors are still a team learning itself with an inexperienced coach (Jackson), changing team identity (small ball PF Barnes vs. traditional PF Lee), players still trying to figure out exactly where they fit (Barnes and Lee), a major piece with a huge health risk (Bogut), and a new Allstar caliber player who will take the ball out of Curry's hands at times (Iggy).

Outside the Top 5
It is going to be really tough picking past the top 5 in the first round this season. I felt pretty uncomfortable with the Love (injury risk, role with new roster) and Westbrook (never put up value that high, less help w/ KMart gone might hurt efficiency/TOs) picks, but had no really good alternatives to propose instead. I really liked the arguments against Kyrie's injury risk label, but facts are facts and he keeps finding ways to miss a significant number of games going back as far as college. I also remain very skeptical of the Cavs' roster and that worries me as he needs to improve in AST to really hit that next level. Rose is a solid gamble, but my recollection is that he only had one season where he put up 1st round production pre-injury.

I'll likely end up taking bigs if I end up near the end of the 1st round as well, as I've found it's very comforting to have an elite big early on and great to have two. Having two of Marc, Aldridge, Al Jeff, and Ibaka going into the 3rd round is not a bad place to be IMO. Scoring would be a concern with Marc and Ibaka, but I think there will be plenty of players to give you PTS in the 3rd and 4th this year.

Melo is an interesting player when considering the 2nd half of the first round because he put up 1st round value over the season and arguably has a pretty high floor based on his past performance. I could easily see someone taking him as high as 7th overall as a conservative, low-risk pick. However, I think there are some concerns because of his late season dropoff last year, the Amare effect, and no one really knowing how the Knicks intend to plug Bargnani into the rotation. It would be a concern if Melo ends up playing more SF since his best production was clearly while playing PF.

The Brow
It's hard to argue with the mid-2nd floor and mid-1st ceiling assessment, which arguably makes Davis a candidate for anywhere in the bottom half of the 1st round if people are risk takers. I personally find him to still be an injury risk based on how many games he missed despite the relatively small amount of PT he got when he was healthy. The arguments that he is growing into his body are very valid going forward, but I'm not sure he'll have gained enough ground in just his 2nd year and at 20 yrs of age. Then again, this is roto, where you can plug in backups for missed games, and you have to roll the dice sometimes to win when drafting late.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby plonden » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:58 pm

silentjim wrote:One pick in and Phil is dominating already? What are the rest of us? Chopped Liver?

Not sure I can take all the credit. Durant probably deserves some of it. :-D
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:07 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:In general, I think that if you get enough guys outperforming their draft slot and you have a shot in any league. That's one of the reasons I try to add a bunch of upside later on in drafts. Boring vets will be on the wire all year, but those breakout guys win you leagues.


In leagues with knowledgeable and experienced types, your edge diminishes. Potential breakouts get scooped up early, and it gets harder to build up enough of a value edge to close the gap on the Durant team. If this was a public league I probably pass on Davis at 14 and opt for the safer player in Horford instead since I'd have more confidence that my targets will fall to me in later rounds and that I'd be able to comfortably outdraft the field. Plus there's a decent shot Davis would be there at 3.11. There is no way he even makes it out of Round 2 with this group.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:29 pm

For whatever it's worth, I'm not sure I completely buy the Horford doesn't have upside narrative. Post ASB he was actually 5th in 9 cat value, and I personally like the current Hawks setup for him and his fantasy game quite a bit.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:32 am

dcdoorknob wrote:For whatever it's worth, I'm not sure I completely buy the Horford doesn't have upside narrative. Post ASB he was actually 5th in 9 cat value, and I personally like the current Hawks setup for him and his fantasy game quite a bit.


Concurring opinion here! I've always been a big Horford fan and think he's primed to have a great season due to the increased opportunities, larger role, and his team's greater reliance on him. I'd take him late 1st or early 2nd and be very happy.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:03 am

bokzg wrote:It is going to be really tough picking past the top 5 in the first round this season. I felt pretty uncomfortable with the Love (injury risk, role with new roster) and Westbrook (never put up value that high, less help w/ KMart gone might hurt efficiency/TOs) picks, but had no really good alternatives to propose instead. I really liked the arguments against Kyrie's injury risk label, but facts are facts and he keeps finding ways to miss a significant number of games going back as far as college. I also remain very skeptical of the Cavs' roster and that worries me as he needs to improve in AST to really hit that next level. Rose is a solid gamble, but my recollection is that he only had one season where he put up 1st round production pre-injury.

See, I don't think it's that bad this year. Totally agree with the Rose concerns, but otherwise, I'd be happy landing Love, Westy or Irving. It's the back half of drafts that harbor more of the difficulty you reference. Additionally, and especially in roto leagues, I'm not a fan of going with two bigs - has never seemed to pan out well.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:06 am

jphanned wrote:In leagues with knowledgeable and experienced types, your edge diminishes. Potential breakouts get scooped up early, and it gets harder to build up enough of a value edge to close the gap on the Durant team.

It's certainly true that it's harder to do in an experienced league, but it's not impossible. You just probably have to take more than one big roll of the dice. Lots of experienced guys tend toward safer high picks, so if you want to reach I think guys would be there.
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