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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby slawek » Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:14 am

Hello all,
This is my first post here...

DVauthrin - you talk about a need for taking chances while taking later in the first round which it's completely understood for me.
But as for Derrick Rose - what upside and ceiling you hope for?

When I look at his BBM per-game 9cat ranks since his MVP season:
- 10/11 - #17,
- 11/12 - #27

I see so many managers envision Rose going in first round but I don't get that point. If he gets as high as 17# in his best (and healthy) season playing over 37 minutes a game, what's the upside from the 9th pick?
The problem I have with Rose is even bigger since we actually don't know the floor for this player...
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby geodbear » Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:07 pm

bokzg wrote:Some thoughts on the mock draft so far:

CP3 v. Curry
While I understand and appreciate the rationale, I would take CP3 over Curry in every draft simply due to the greater consistency and established value. CP3 has been top 3 for a while now, and even his tendency to miss games hasn't dropped his value much in roto leagues (especially if you have a decent backup PG who you can plug in). Also, his injury risk is ameliorated a bit by the fact that he has a pretty health-friendly old man game now, and has a pretty stocky and solid frame for a player his size. Paul's team situation is also ideal in that he will remain the ball-dominating maestro for his team, with the potential for improvement with better coaching and perimeter shooting around him this season.

Curry, on the other hand, is still a greater injury risk in my mind because of his history and the fact that teams will likely trying to be physical with him this season now that he's officially gained best shooter in the league status. He can work out all he wants, but he's always going to be small and skinny for a NBA player and has both ankles as ticking time bombs. Curry also hasn't shown top 4 or 5 value over multiple seasons, which makes him a greater risk even if healthy. As for his team situation, the Warriors are still a team learning itself with an inexperienced coach (Jackson), changing team identity (small ball PF Barnes vs. traditional PF Lee), players still trying to figure out exactly where they fit (Barnes and Lee), a major piece with a huge health risk (Bogut), and a new Allstar caliber player who will take the ball out of Curry's hands at times (Iggy).


I admit that under a "mock" setting, I am taking Curry over Paul. If there was money on the line, I would be conservative (logical?) and take Paul. I do think that between Paul and Curry, Curry has the greater potential now to get close to Durant/LBJ. He could average in the mid 20's in ppg, elite 3's (best in league), high number of assists (potentially ~8 ppg), high steals (between 1.5 and 2 spg), elite ft% along with above average rebounds and fg% for the PG position. I don't think Iggy takes the ball out of Curry's hands any more than Jack did. He doesn't have top 4-5 history, but all of his 4 seasons is first round worthy on a per game basis, including his rookie season. Paul is definitely in his prime, but for me, what "limits" him is that he will likely not average above 20 ppg. In a roto league in particular, I would like that attribute in a first round pick.
Yes, Warriors sold at last!
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby The Thrill » Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:36 pm

geodbear wrote:The first fantasy basketball league I ever played in was 20 years ago


Dude, I thought you were like barely over 20 to start with. ;-7 Whaddya start fantasy basketball when you were 5? ;-) :-b

I like the Anthony Davis logic here. I'm buying the argument that it's a good move in a competitive league like this to get a guy who might take it to the next level of stardom.

Do you guys think the same can be said for Kawhi Leonard this season as well? (I'm actually asking a question, I don't know). His per 36 present an interesting case as compared to where he's ranking on boards (in the brief rankings I've looked at so far).
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Fri Aug 16, 2013 5:46 pm

RedHopeful wrote:See, I don't think it's that bad this year. Totally agree with the Rose concerns, but otherwise, I'd be happy landing Love, Westy or Irving. It's the back half of drafts that harbor more of the difficulty you reference. Additionally, and especially in roto leagues, I'm not a fan of going with two bigs - has never seemed to pan out well.


Maybe I'm just too risk-adverse, but Love and Irving worry me (Love less so because of his history and what appears to be a full recovery thus far). You're banking on Irving's potential and not much actual production to support taking him 6th or 7th, and that's not even considering his injury concerns. I've come to realize that I tend to value Westbrook less than the general consensus, and that's been true for a couple of seasons now, so I know that my wariness taking him that early is probably in the minor opinion.

In general, I think that any of those three could easily be outperformed by the players who will likely be drafted 4 to 5 spots after them, which doesn't make me all that comfortable so early in the draft.

Edit: As to taking two bigs early, I think it could work out well this season with the amount of talented PGs available this season. I'm always less worried about wings, so I feel okay taking two bigs early knowing that there are quality PGs that will be available later on in the middle rounds.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:26 pm

bokzg wrote:Edit: As to taking two bigs early, I think it could work out well this season with the amount of talented PGs available this season. I'm always less worried about wings, so I feel okay taking two bigs early knowing that there are quality PGs that will be available later on in the middle rounds.

Yeah, there's a lot of depth at PG. I have 16 PGs ranked in my top 51. 8-o
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby DVauthrin » Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:32 pm

slawek wrote:Hello all,
This is my first post here...

DVauthrin - you talk about a need for taking chances while taking later in the first round which it's completely understood for me.
But as for Derrick Rose - what upside and ceiling you hope for?

When I look at his BBM per-game 9cat ranks since his MVP season:
- 10/11 - #17,
- 11/12 - #27

I see so many managers envision Rose going in first round but I don't get that point. If he gets as high as 17# in his best (and healthy) season playing over 37 minutes a game, what's the upside from the 9th pick?
The problem I have with Rose is even bigger since we actually don't know the floor for this player...


I think Rose can up his threes per game to 2, lower his turnovers, and get his steals above 1 per game while maintaining points, assists, boards and maybe suffer a slight dip in field goal percentage. The truth is, I wanted Irving, but Red ended those hopes a pick ahead of me. I don't like building around a no assist player like Melo, and while Aldridge, Gasol, Jefferson types are safe picks, they don't really have much room to grow into a top 5 fantasy option if everything breaks right. And that's what it will take to win a league picking 9th. It's much like someone taking westbrook at 7. Just replace steals with threes for him, and it echoes my thoughts on Rose, except Rose has added injury concerns.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Fri Aug 16, 2013 6:48 pm

DVauthrin wrote:
slawek wrote:Hello all,
This is my first post here...

DVauthrin - you talk about a need for taking chances while taking later in the first round which it's completely understood for me.
But as for Derrick Rose - what upside and ceiling you hope for?

When I look at his BBM per-game 9cat ranks since his MVP season:
- 10/11 - #17,
- 11/12 - #27

I see so many managers envision Rose going in first round but I don't get that point. If he gets as high as 17# in his best (and healthy) season playing over 37 minutes a game, what's the upside from the 9th pick?
The problem I have with Rose is even bigger since we actually don't know the floor for this player...


I think Rose can up his threes per game to 2, lower his turnovers, and get his steals above 1 per game while maintaining points, assists, boards and maybe suffer a slight dip in field goal percentage. The truth is, I wanted Irving, but Red ended those hopes a pick ahead of me. I don't like building around a no assist player like Melo, and while Aldridge, Gasol, Jefferson types are safe picks, they don't really have much room to grow into a top 5 fantasy option if everything breaks right. And that's what it will take to win a league picking 9th. It's much like someone taking westbrook at 7. Just replace steals with threes for him, and it echoes my thoughts on Rose, except Rose has added injury concerns.


I think Rose can peak out at end of first round value. I'm not sure I'd call him an injury concern though. He's still young, growing, and improving. I like his determination.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby bokzg » Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:03 pm

I like the Dirk pick because I think people are letting him slip their notice this season. I'm just wondering how far he's going to fall in drafts to maximize his value. Dirk came on very strong in the second half of the season when he got healthy, and he seems very motivated this coming season. He'll have more help to make his job easier with this year's roster I think, although I have my doubts as to whether it will actually result in much better team performance.

I also agree that pairing Dirk with CP3 is a fine start to a draft, particularly in roto since you're so balanced across the board.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:07 pm

bokzg wrote:I like the Dirk pick because I think people are letting him slip their notice this season. I'm just wondering how far he's going to fall in drafts to maximize his value. Dirk came on very strong in the second half of the season when he got healthy, and he seems very motivated this coming season. He'll have more help to make his job easier with this year's roster I think, although I have my doubts as to whether it will actually result in much better team performance.

I also agree that pairing Dirk with CP3 is a fine start to a draft, particularly in roto since you're so balanced across the board.


I was pleased with him here. I don't think Wade will slip as far as he did in this mock draft in most standard leagues, but his value needs to be paired correctly to get full advantage for sure. When I went to bed last night I was sure that Granger and Wade would be drafted before. Little shocked to see Batum taken there, but great player as well.

So far I like the draft quite a bit. I think I'm just pumped for some hoops. :-D
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:00 pm

Sorry to disappoint you Jim but I think me drafting Granger at 2.07 would have raised more than a few eyebrows. :-D

As for Wade, well with nearly every other player who had injuries last year that's been drafted so far, offseason reports are all "he's been at full strength for weeks" and "he's ready to attack the upcoming season with renewed vigor" and whatnot.

Dwyane Wade's news is "he's tried some new therapy you probably haven't heard of, and hadn't even set foot on a basketball court until like yesterday. Oh, and also the Heat already have a plan to limit his minutes and give him some DNPs throughout the upcoming season."

Yeah I'm going to go ahead and pass on that headache in the mid 2nd. I just don't see the 1st round upside returning at all and the games played is almost surely going to be lacking some as well. If he drops to the 3rd or something silly then I'll consider it (not that I expect him to).

I do like the Dirk pick with Paul. Like I said I had him BPA at my pick but just didn't like the Love/Dirk pairing.
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