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Draft Commentary

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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:38 pm

plonden wrote:I like Kanter a lot this season as well. Nice pick. I was hoping to nab him later on myself. ;-D


I'm not as high on Kanter myself. I'd take a flyer on him later in drafts, but despite possibly getting more playing time his stats haven't shown yet that he's quite ready for a breakout. His percentages are solid, but the counting stats haven't shown he can dominant in any cat yet. I know he's young, but I'd like to see more before I pass over some other guys for him.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:49 pm

Love the OJ Mayo pick. ;-D
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby geodbear » Thu Aug 22, 2013 2:55 pm

silentjim wrote:
plonden wrote:I like Kanter a lot this season as well. Nice pick. I was hoping to nab him later on myself. ;-D


I'm not as high on Kanter myself. I'd take a flyer on him later in drafts, but despite possibly getting more playing time his stats haven't shown yet that he's quite ready for a breakout. His percentages are solid, but the counting stats haven't shown he can dominant in any cat yet. I know he's young, but I'd like to see more before I pass over some other guys for him.


I like Kanter provided you know what your expectations are for him. He's going to see a huge leap in minutes per game to 30-35 mpg.His back ups are Andris Biedrins (expiring contract) and Rudy Gobert (raw rookie). 15/9 is attainable with good percentages. After that, it definitely is limited. I wouldn't expect the block numbers you want from a center, with that coming from Favors who has no back up as far as I can tell, I guess Jeremy Evans and some Marvin Williams. I haven't run numbers, but I think he could give fantasy production similar to Pekovic, so this draft spot is about right. Speaking of, Pek hasn't been drafted yet, and he's been downgraded due to Love returning (and his limitations in blocks), but he's still the only viable C on the Wolves. I'm guessing he'll go in the next round or so.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby DamnLies » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:07 pm

geodbear wrote:I like Kanter provided you know what your expectations are for him. He's going to see a huge leap in minutes per game to 30-35 mpg.His back ups are Andris Biedrins (expiring contract) and Rudy Gobert (raw rookie). 15/9 is attainable with good percentages. After that, it definitely is limited. I wouldn't expect the block numbers you want from a center, with that coming from Favors who has no back up as far as I can tell, I guess Jeremy Evans and some Marvin Williams. I haven't run numbers, but I think he could give fantasy production similar to Pekovic, so this draft spot is about right. Speaking of, Pek hasn't been drafted yet, and he's been downgraded due to Love returning (and his limitations in blocks), but he's still the only viable C on the Wolves. I'm guessing he'll go in the next round or so.


Yeah, this was my thinking with Kanter. Pek could easily fall to 14/8 this season, and he hasn't exactly been the pillar of health. And it's not like you're trading off a huge amount of blocks, steals or assists for Kanter. In theory Kanter has more FT% upside but both shoot pretty well. Kanter seems like he can be a Valanciunas without the blocks. Can Kanter average 1.0 blocks? I suppose, but he's probably just as likely to average 0.6. I'd bet on 0.8 or 0.9.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:34 pm

I think 15/9 is a bit optimistic for Kanter, I'm expecting more 14/8. But the turnover rate is a definite concern as far as his overall value goes. If he doesn't improve it he'd be on pace for around 3 TOs/game if he plays around 30 mpg, which is way too much for a center at this point in the draft.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:01 pm

Kanter's upside reminds of me Luis Scola circa the 2010-2011 season. Scola averaged 18.3 points, 8.2 boards, 2.5 assists, .6 steals, .6 blocks, 50% from the floor, and 73.8% from the line while turning the ball over 2.0 times a game. Seems like a nice line, but Scola's rank that season was 73rd (Early 7th rounder). To me this means unless Kanter makes significant strides this season he won't come anywhere close to that line in terms of points and he's going to be worse in steals and possibly TOs. My point is I think is absolute upside is where he was drafted based on his playing style and maturity right now, and I'm not too confident he can stay out of foul trouble either.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:14 pm

I'm a fan of the Danny Green pick, Matt. Was debating between him and Butler at my last selection, but opted to go with the Bull.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:18 pm

RedHopeful wrote:I'm a fan of the Danny Green pick, Matt. Was debating between him and Butler at my last selection, but opted to go with the Bull.


I'm a big Jimmy Butler fan, but shocked to see him go before Luol Deng.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:39 pm

silentjim wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:I'm a fan of the Danny Green pick, Matt. Was debating between him and Butler at my last selection, but opted to go with the Bull.


I'm a big Jimmy Butler fan, but shocked to see him go before Luol Deng.

Better start getting used to it. :-b

In all seriousness, I just can't get behind a guy who hasn't fixed the tendon in his wrist. Absolutely don't want a guy at his position having such a negative effect on my FG%.
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Re: Draft Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:53 pm

RedHopeful wrote:
silentjim wrote:I'm a big Jimmy Butler fan, but shocked to see him go before Luol Deng.

Better start getting used to it. :-b

In all seriousness, I just can't get behind a guy who hasn't fixed the tendon in his wrist. Absolutely don't want a guy at his position having such a negative effect on my FG%.


The reasons to like Butler over Deng are obvious, but none of that really matters if Deng continues to see 38 mpg while Butler is stuck in the high 20s to low 30s. I'd like Butler a lot more had Chicago not signed Dunleavy; by virtue of volume, I'd still give Deng the edge.
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