It feels hypocritical to talk about the proper use of sample sizes then freak out about a four-game Summer League sample like everyone else seemingly has. Yes, I'd feel better about this pick had he not shot 24% during that stretch, but Burke should still be considered the favorite to win ROY and will be the only rookie I'll even consider drafting this year.
I watched two of those Summer League games, and though I definitely noticed some things that he needed to work on - finishing around the basket against bigger defenders - a lot of what I also saw was him being overeager and overanxious. Given that, I'm far more willing to give credence to the 39-game sample that saw him hit 38.4% of his threes on 198 attempts at Michigan vs. a four-game sample where he shot 5.3% on 19 attempts.
Bottom line: Burke was straight up ridiculous in college. Among 100+ players who had a usage rate of at least 28%, he was fourth in offensive rating. He proved that he was able to remain efficient and put up big numbers as the focal point of opposing defenses. That bodes well for his chances as a rookie, where he'll be thrust into a similar situation as the Jazz's unquestioned starter at PG.
His transition to New Jersey hasn't gone well so far. And he is an aging vet with a bloated contract. But he surrounded by great players and will hopefully recover some of his game given the talent around him. My team needs scoring, but even if he doesn't net more than 15/game, hopefully it will be more efficient than it traditionally has been.
Well, someone has to play PF in PHO. Morris has been quite up and down in his young career, but he's got a real opportunity to run away with it this season -- coming off a strong summer league and Scola has been shipped out. As long as he doesn't crater, he should be a decent multi-cat contributor many a night.
The Nets have already talked about limiting Kevin Garnett and sitting him completely on the second of back-to-backs. Paul Pierce is likely to see a cut in his minutes as well in an attempt to stay fresh. Kirilenko is already a really good player, so it isn't like he was going to disappear, but I like the chance for him to receive enough minutes to be a solid fantasy play (and an injury away from being a great one). Problem is, Kirilenko has to stay healthy himself; he can't seem to play a full season. But with this pick, the final one of my starters, I envision a rotating player in my starting lineup based on how things are going from week to week. When healthy, Kirilenko should fit in there nicely with 27-28 minutes per game doing the dirty work for both Brooklyn and my team.
It's a pick born out of need, but I'm fine with the value too. I need a 2nd center, and a boost in blocks, and Robin Lopez can provide those things. He was 87th in per game value in about 26 mpg last year, and he seems to be in line to get similar minutes this year in Portland.
This is probably about right for Redick's value, but I like him to possibly score more and even hit a few more threes, even if it comes at fewer assists and boards in LA. The help in FT% withouth killing you in FG% from a guy who should hit at least 2+ threes a game is nice.
I thought about Jameer Nelson here, who I think is excellent value even with Oladipo in Orlando, but the potential FG% drain and that team made me shy away a bit.
(Past Year: 932)
Joined: 23 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: Fundamentals are the crutch of the talentless.
Looking to grab another big or a 3-point shooter here. Health is always risk with Nene, but has the potential to get back in the top 100. He would pay off if he returns 13 ppg, 7 rbg, 2 apg, 1 spg, 1 bpg, 50+ fg%, 70+ ft% on 28 to 30 mpg.