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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:53 am

A lot of the times we'll wait until the end of the draft to mention best, worst, favorites, etc, but I figured we could start now and everyone could just edit and add more rounds as we go. ;-D

First Round
Best Pick: Kevin Durant (1.01)/Chris Paul (1.05)Hard to argue with Kevin Durant, but since he's the consensus first pick in ROTO for sure, it seems like a cop out to pick him. I know I picked CP3, but I really don't think you'll be able to get him at pick 5 in most leagues, so he's my 1A selection

Worst Pick: Derrick Rose (1.09). I'm a huge Bulls fan and love Rose's real life game, but he kind of reminds me of Deron Williams from a few year back, in that people would consistently pick him in the first round even though his ceiling was right around 20. I think you're going to see a rejuvenated dominating D-Rose, but I'm not sure he can put up first round value ever, and if the Bulls actually get better as a team they'll be less reliant on him as well. I'll give an honorable mention to Marc Gasol (1.10) who's a solid pick, but who I think is tough to build a team around. (I made mention on BBM that Gasol would need to be paired with Carmelo type scorers).

Second Round
Best Pick: Al Horford (2.04). Quietly puts up a solid line and has shown in the past he can put up near first round numbers. With the departure of Josh Smith, Horford has some room to grow offensively and also shot a career worst 64% from the line last season while his career average is 10 points higher.

Worst Pick: Tim Duncan (2.10). Like most I thought Duncan's best seasons were behind him, and then boom a return to former glory. I just don't think he's a safe bet to reach those numbers again. His FT% was insane and he hadn't blocked more than 2 shots a game since 06-07. If he can do it great, but the decline before last season was trending and I think he was pushing for last championships while he could, which could lead to more rest and more injuries. Duncan was got drafted what, in the 70s last season?

Third Round:
Best Pick: Ty Lawson (3.11). I think a few of us got disappointed by Lawson a bit last season and it was probably a bit of over hyping, though he did regress a bit and most thought some improvement would come. Either way at this spot in the draft getting a PG in a good team situation, on fantasy friendly team, who steals the ball, and has good percentages is nice.

Worst Pick: John Wall (3.01). I actually like most of the third round picks, but I have a hard time thinking Wall can produce top 25 value. He's never come close to it in the past and I think a few others have mentioned in past threads, but when you're a poor shooting PG who doesn't hit the three and turns the ball over a lot, showing improvement will be difficult.

Fourth Round:
Best Pick: Rudy Gay (4.09). Its a little weird for me to have passed on Gay and then say he's the best pick, but I am. His 33 games in Toronto netted him a per game rank of 36 and he wasn't that efficient, which leaves some room for improvement on a guy who's done it before. I'll give an honorable mention to Dwight Howard who I think will dominant in Houston, but still shoot too terribly for me to take him in a ROTO league.

Worst Pick: Eric Bledsoe (4.02). I really don't know where Bledsoe's ADP will be this coming season, but I don't think you'll see him go any earlier than this anywhere. The steals and possible 15, 5, 5 would be nice (not sure its doable), but the high TOs and lack of threes will probably prevent his value from being super high. I think he's a solid pick, but again a round or two or three too early. Per 36 minutes are very tricky obviously. CJ Miles looks like a beast when you look at his per36, but no one is drafting him anytime soon. And Brandan Wright can have the same argument made for him and he could actually be in a nice situation this upcoming season.

Fifth Round:
Best Pick: Kobe Bryant (5.06). If we get good news on Kobe before the season starts this is great value. Kobe, love him or hate him, is an insane competitor and does what it takes to win, which is good for fantasy purposes. Honorable mentions to Ryan Anderson (5.11) and Derrick Favors (5.12).

Worst Pick: Amir Johnson (5.04). I'm 99% sure if we all had more draft prep time and looked into things we'd all agree Amir shouldn't be here. I think he makes for a sneaky fantasy player to draft in standard leagues, but I think he got drafted super early.

Sixth Round:
Best Pick: Jrue Holiday (6.05). Holiday was hyped for a bit, but I think this is a good fit and team around him to give some nice upside and just about break even here even in a worst case scenario.

Worst Pick: Rajon Rondo (6.03) With Rondo's possibility with significant missed time or not being 100%, not sure why you'd draft him over Holiday, Nash, Lin, and Lowry. The gamble doesn't make sense to me given Rondo's limitations.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:08 am

I'll do best and worst, but I seriously doubt I'll end up doing one of each for every round of the draft. :-b

First Round
Best Pick: Chris Paul. The temptation to go with Durant is there, but, really, he's the obvious #1 for roto, so I'm not going to break out the bubbly. Paul is a guy with proven top three upside. In fact he put up #3 value last year on a per-game basis playing only 33mpg. That's four minutes less than Durant and 5 less than LeBron. At that point last season represents Paul's basement value, barring injury. It's possible someone could leapfrog him, Harden and Curry being the prime candidates, but neither of those guys managed it last year playing almost five more minutes a game than Paul. That's great value drafted behind those same two guys. Paul is still my number three guy going into this fantasy season.

Worst Pick: Derrick Rose. I'm not going to belabor the point, but I just don't see top 10 upside with Rose. There are a ton of good PGs this year, and I think I would have let Rose fall past 9. You need a perfect storm to have this pick return even value. (No offense DV :-D )

Second Round
Best Pick: Dirk Nowitzki. You have to love drafting a guy at 20 who has top ten upside and who actually put up top ten numbers over the final two months of the season. Dirk is a roto stud and I think a lot of people are going to get great value for him this year if he keeps sliding to the end of the second round. This whole top ten thing is going to be a theme for a while with these picks of mine. ;-D

Worst Pick: Tim Duncan. I love Tim Duncan. I loved owning him last year and watching him find the fountain of youth. Asking him to do it again at age 37 is probably asking too much. I'm sure he'll still be great in real life, but I don't see him reaching the rarefied heights of last year. The Blk and FT% will both probably sag off, and at that point even if he's healthy he's probably more like a 4th or 5th round guy, just like he was the year before last.

Third Round
Best Pick: Paul Millsap. Back to the top ten meme here for a moment. In the 2011-12 season Millsap ranked 7th overall in per game value playing 32.8mpg. Last year he played a couple less minutes a game and suffered though a time share and still managed top 50 value. Now he's in Atlanta where he's going to get a boatload more minutes and be a much more valued asset. That's proven top ten talent going to a better team situation and more minutes that got drafted at 33. Yes please, I'll have another. ;-D

Other Best Pick: Pau Gasol. Another proven top ten talent going into the season with a better situation and, in Pau's case, at least to start, carte blanche to carry his team. A month of getting fed a steady diet of pick and roll looks by Steve Nash should get Pau off to a roaring start. You have to love that with the 29th pick. There's some risk there of course, but the return could be huge.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:11 am

I'm surprised the Rubio 3.03 pick isn't getting more criticism. That was by far the worst pick of the mock so far in my opinion. I get the logic behind Wall; with Rubio, I just don't see any angle where a pick that early makes sense.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:18 am

jphanned wrote:I'm surprised the Rubio 3.03 pick isn't getting more criticism. That was by far the worst pick of the mock so far in my opinion. I get the logic behind Wall; with Rubio, I just don't see any angle where a pick that early makes sense.

I don't love the pick, but I don't hate it either. He finished the year posting something like late third round value last year, and now he gets to play with Kevin Love. I don't think it's egregious enough that I really have to hate the pick anyway. I'd rather wait a round on him but it's not like he's never even come close to putting up the value he'd need to warrant that pick there.

That's the optimistic version of course, but I can at least see an angle there, even if it's not one I buy into quite that early.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:31 am

Ok, I'll bite. Least I can do after wasting everyone's time waiting for my pick. :-°

1st round
Best: Al Jefferson. Matt drafted a guy at the end of the first round that just feels safer than almost half the picks before him. A player who likes the ball in his hands going to a team absolutely starved for offense? Yes please.

Worst: Derrick Rose. Agree with Jim that he simply hasn't earned being drafted this early in a draft. Yeah, there is some potential here to have a career type year, but he'd have to turn around quite a few of his problematic categories around.

2nd round
Best: Dirk Nowitzki. I thought long and hard about him at my 2nd round pick, but Serge Ibaka was one player I had higher on my rankings. At #20, he's an incredibly good pick.

Worst: Nicolas Batum. Yeah, I know an assortment of injuries hurt his production last year, but I can't help but think there is a decent chance all the dings and nicks of a regular season won't regularly take a toll. Add the fact the Blazers are a bit deeper and Lillard is a year older, Batum's non-type A personality pushes him to go back to a more comfortable third fiddle role.

3rd round
Best: Pau Gasol. Can't remember the last time Jim got two of these votes from me this early annnnnnnnnd I still haven't fully forgiven Pau for the kick to the groin last season, but he does appear primed for a heck of a good statistical season.

Worst: Brook Lopez. This off-season's foot surgery and NJ's improved depth have me questioning he deserves top 40 consideration.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:34 am

jphanned wrote:I'm surprised the Rubio 3.03 pick isn't getting more criticism. That was by far the worst pick of the mock so far in my opinion. I get the logic behind Wall; with Rubio, I just don't see any angle where a pick that early makes sense.

Well what makes it bad then? The fact is he put up 4th round value PAB with a depleted roster in which he was asked to attempt to score more. Add that to the fact he was coming off an acl injury, they acquired another talented scorer/shooter in Kevin Martin, his team seems to be entirely healthy, and its his own first fully healthy offseason, how would it be unreasonable to think he wont improve from 4th round value to 3rd round?
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:35 am

jphanned wrote:I'm surprised the Rubio 3.03 pick isn't getting more criticism. That was by far the worst pick of the mock so far in my opinion. I get the logic behind Wall; with Rubio, I just don't see any angle where a pick that early makes sense.

Yeah, Rubio was neck and neck there with Lopez for me. Perhaps I've got some bias going as I've been burned by Lopez a few too many times...
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:40 am

I thought about Lopez for worst pick, but a couple of things held me back. First, he only averaged about 30mpg last year and ranked out at 28th per game value. Second, he only shot 14-ish shots a game, so it's not a ranking padded by massive minutes or lucky chuckery. This year it's going to very, very, hard for teams to double Lopez and he's playing with a whole group of players now who can get him the ball in good spots. I think there's a solid chance his efficiency actually goes up this year. Obviously the foot surgery dampens the excitement, as does the number of hands and only one ball in Brooklyn this year, but overall I'm not as down on Lopez in the third as I thought I'd be at first glance.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:09 am

jay_00 wrote:
jphanned wrote:I'm surprised the Rubio 3.03 pick isn't getting more criticism. That was by far the worst pick of the mock so far in my opinion. I get the logic behind Wall; with Rubio, I just don't see any angle where a pick that early makes sense.


Well what makes it bad then? The fact is he put up 4th round value PAB with a depleted roster in which he was asked to attempt to score more. Add that to the fact he was coming off an acl injury, they acquired another talented scorer/shooter in Kevin Martin, his team seems to be entirely healthy, and its his own first fully healthy offseason, how would it be unreasonable to think he wont improve from 4th round value to 3rd round?


Argument against the Rubio pick is two-fold:

1) I don't think he'll even post top-50 value next year, let alone top-30.

When you cite a specific two-month split, it has to have some sort of significance within a bigger context (e.g. Davis' final two months showed what he could do with starter's minutes, Ty Lawson's 2013 split showed his early shooting slump was an aberration). You're missing the point why Rubio posted top-45 value during that stretch. It was precisely because his team was so depleted. The gains he made were limited to three categories: points, threes, and rebounds. Getting Love back and adding Martin helps that how? I've heard this argument tossed around a million times, but how exactly are Love and Martin supposed to help Rubio's value? It makes you sound smart when you say it, but it doesn't make any sense. He loses looks (points, threes, FTA) and rebounds. He gains assists, sure, but that's never been the problem with him in fantasy. He's a two-category player a la Rondo, and unless you forecast significant improvement in his other six problem categories, he'll finish nowhere near where you drafted him.


2) Even if I did buy that he's a top-30 player, the early-third is a wild overpay. This mock draft is filled with managers who get categorical distribution, z-scores, etc. and factor that into their draft decisions more so than ancillary considerations (like brand name and "hype"), and I doubt his ADP in these types of leagues would be any higher than late-fourth.

Curious - would anyone else would've taken him in the third or fourth?
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:16 am

1st round
Best: Chris Paul. Injury concerns aside, you know what youre getting when he steps on the court. Hes been as consistent as they come, and been a top 3 fantasy player for several years now.

Worst: Derrick Rose. Now honestly there cant be that dramatic of a mistake to be made here in the 1st round with all the talent around, but I think this one is a tad premature.

2nd round
Best: Serge Ibaka. The guy put up 1st round value, improved in several stats, none more important than boosting his ppg imo. Only set to improve some more.

Worst: Tim Duncan. Ok look, i totally expected Davis being there. My fall back plan was gonna be Sanders, but i changed my mind last minute because i figured his fg% is set to drop slightly with a terrible passing backcourt in Milwaukee now. I also wanted a big who could at least get me 15ppg on 50 fg%, with 2 blocks a game, and without hurting me in ft%. Either way its still a hit or miss pick.

3rd round
Best: Pau Gasol. Kobes not gonna be regular kobe right off the bat, so they will lean on Nash and Pau from the start. As the season progresses his numbers might dip, but nothing drastic. Fact is he was a 1st rd pick without Dwight or Bynum, and even tho hes in his 30s now, it should easily be a bounce back year.

Worst: Ersan Ilyasova. No Jennings or Ellis, who were both pretty good passers and demanded alotta attention from the defense. Knight or Mayo have NEVER been known as good passers, and never shot good from the field either. I see Ilyasova's fg% dropping, and i see him falling out of 3rd round value.
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