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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:36 am

jphanned wrote:Argument against the Rubio pick is two-fold:

1) I don't think he'll even post top-50 value next year, let alone top-30.

When you cite a specific two-month split, it has to have some sort of significance within a bigger context (e.g. Davis' final two months showed what he could do with starter's minutes, Ty Lawson's 2013 split showed his early shooting slump was an aberration). You're missing the point why Rubio posted top-45 value during that stretch. It was precisely because his team was so depleted. The gains he made were limited to three categories: points, threes, and rebounds. Getting Love back and adding Martin helps that how? I've heard this argument tossed around a million times, but how exactly are Love and Martin supposed to help Rubio's value? It makes you sound smart when you say it, but it doesn't make any sense. He loses looks (points, threes, FTA) and rebounds. He gains assists, sure, but that's never been the problem with him in fantasy. He's a two-category player a la Rondo, and unless you forecast significant improvement in his other six problem categories, he'll finish nowhere near where you drafted him.
I have a couple of issues with this, but more like nuance than outright disagreement. Getting Love and Martin back isn't just about adding Ast, it's also about freeing Rubio up from some defensive attention, which could easily benefit his overall efficiency. As far as the threes go, I don't think he loses out there, if he gets the ball back later in the clock behind the arc (Calderon styles) he'll maintain value there. As far as the rebounds go Rubio has always been an above average rebounder at the PG slot, so while Love doesn't help there (at all), it's not as though Rubio doesn't have a natural aptitude for rebounding. I don't think the correlation between the addition of Love and Martin and Rubio's decline in the listed cats is a decisive as you'd like it to be.


jphanned wrote:2) Even if I did buy that he's a top-30 player, the early-third is a wild overpay. This mock draft is filled with managers who get categorical distribution, z-scores, etc. and factor that into their draft decisions more so than ancillary considerations (like brand name and "hype"), and I doubt his ADP in these types of leagues would be any higher than late-fourth.
I don't really disagree with you here. I just shade his median potential higher than you do, which changes the extent of the overpay. I mentioned earlier that I'd rather have him a round later, which probably puts us in more or less the same boat, even though it sounds here like we really disagree,

jphanned wrote:Curious - would anyone else would've taken him in the third or fourth?
Yeah, I have him ranked in that range and I'm probably in the market for a second PG. I was a little put out that he went when he did. :-b
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:49 am

jphanned wrote:Argument against the Rubio pick is two-fold:

1) I don't think he'll even post top-50 value next year, let alone top-30.

When you cite a specific two-month split, it has to have some sort of significance within a bigger context (e.g. Davis' final two months showed what he could do with starter's minutes, Ty Lawson's 2013 split showed his early shooting slump was an aberration). You're missing the point why Rubio posted top-45 value during that stretch. It was precisely because his team was so depleted. The gains he made were limited to three categories: points, threes, and rebounds. Getting Love back and adding Martin helps that how? I've heard this argument tossed around a million times, but how exactly are Love and Martin supposed to help Rubio's value? It makes you sound smart when you say it, but it doesn't make any sense. He loses looks (points, threes, FTA) and rebounds. He gains assists, sure, but that's never been the problem with him in fantasy. He's a two-category player a la Rondo, and unless you forecast significant improvement in his other six problem categories, he'll finish nowhere near where you drafted him.


2) Even if I did buy that he's a top-30 player, the early-third is a wild overpay. This mock draft is filled with managers who get categorical distribution, z-scores, etc. and factor that into their draft decisions more so than ancillary considerations (like brand name and "hype"), and I doubt his ADP in these types of leagues would be any higher than late-fourth.

Curious - would anyone else would've taken him in the third or fourth?


You do realize he has played with Love in the past right? With Love back and having Martin on his team now his assists will go up, and thats how his value will go up. Its not hard to comprehend that if youre a pass first pg, and theres no scorers on your team, u wont do so well in fg% either. If your team acquires some scorers, your asts and fg% will be boosted. You really expect him to only average 7.5 asts this season and shoot 36% with a better roster? I certainly dont.

You say he loses looks, but how much looks would u really be losing if you only average 12 a game? Fact is he wont be needed to score, so his FTA's will go down, but his threes should stay around 1 trey a game. No reason to think he cant give u 11 ppg on 40 fg%, which will put him in 3rd round value if his asts go up to 9+ a game and he leads the lg in stls.

The guy put up 2nd rd value PAB in 8 cat, which is perfect since im punting tos. With all things considered, i dont see how he wouldnt improve on that performance, or at least duplicate it.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:56 am

Fenris-77 wrote:Getting Love and Martin back isn't just about adding Ast, it's also about freeing Rubio up from some defensive attention, which could easily benefit his overall efficiency.


Rubio has been a poor shooter his entire youth career, even before he got to the NBA. Somehow, inexplicably, adding Martin and Love makes him a markedly improved jump shooter? Show me one study/article that proves this is an actual thing. Rubio shot 35.7% FG in 2012 when he played with Love. Last year on a team devoid of scoring options? 36%.

And do me one better - give me a full projection on Rubio including FGA and FTA. I'll plug it into BBM and show you how little these small gains in efficiency matter when weighed against the loss in general volume/usage that come with adding Love and Martin.

Fenris-77 wrote:As far as the threes go, I don't think he loses out there, if he gets the ball back later in the clock behind the arc (Calderon styles) he'll maintain value there. As far as the rebounds go Rubio has always been an above average rebounder at the PG slot, so while Love doesn't help there (at all), it's not as though Rubio doesn't have a natural aptitude for rebounding. I don't think the correlation between the addition of Love and Martin and Rubio's decline in the listed cats is a decisive as you'd like it to be.


Here's my biggest rub: jay used a two-month sample that has absolutely no relation to his current team situation. He may as well have played for a different team. Those per-game averages should not be used as any sort of realistic barometer.

The baseline data that we do have when he last played with Love ('12) puts his per-game value at 72. It puts him at 10.6 ppg and 4.2 rpg. The two-month sample jay cited that doesn't include Love or Martin has him at 12.9 ppg and 5.2 rpg. Tell me which one is the more realistic projection.

Not sure you and jay realize how much Rubio has to improve across the board from the time he last played with Love to justify this early-third round spot.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:07 am

jphanned wrote:Here's my biggest rub: jay used a two-month sample that has absolutely no relation to his current team situation. He may as well have played for a different team. Those per-game averages should not be used as any sort of realistic barometer.

The baseline data that we do have when he played with Love ('12) puts his per-game value at 72. It puts him at 10.6 ppg and 4.2 rpg. The two-month sample jay cited that does not include Love or Martin has him at 12.9 ppg and 5.2 rpg. Tell me which one is the more realistic projection.

Not sure you realize how much Rubio has to improve across the board from the time he last played with Love to justify this early-third round spot.

How about you just tell us what YOU project his numbers to come out too. It almost sounds like you expect no improvement from his rookie season at all. Im thinking this (at least):

11.5 ppg, 9.2 apg, 4 rpg, 2.6 spg, 40 fg%, 82 ft%, 1 three a game, .1 bpg, and horrible turnovers (idc about that stat)
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:21 am

Justin, you keep talking about 'sounding smart' but then you reference Rubio's rookie season as baseline expectation. That doesn't seem reasonable to me - when is a guard's rookie season the baseline for his production? Never mind that I made legitimate point about reduced defensive pressure that you waved away because it won't make him a better jump shooter. No, it won't make him a better jump shooter, but if he has more space to work with the jump shot he does have will probably work a little better. Never mind that Rubio could, without anything seeming forced, project out to something silly like 11 Ast a game (or more) if both Love and Martin stay mostly healthy and convert at their usual efficient pace.

No one sane is suggesting that Rubio is going to morph into a .450 shooter or any such nonsense, but he could easily edge up to .400 if he has more space to work with, and three ball numbers aren't a lock to fall off at all if Rubio gets some late clock goodies on the third or fourth side of the floor.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:49 am

@jay - At least 9.2 apg and 2.6 spg? You know how many players have done that in the last 18 years? One. And he went fourth overall.

@Fenris - Baseline means a starting point, not an expectation or projection. 2011-2012 is the last available usable data we have when he played with Love. I expect modest improvements on those numbers, but not anywhere near what jay laid out. You made a legitimate point according to what? I'm saying - there is no data or study that even remotely confirms or suggests your claim. Just because it sounds good in your head doesn't make it statistically significant. OKC added Martin this year and guess what? Westbrook's FG% dropped by 2%. Yes, Rubio gets Love back this year but guess what? He shot better this year without him (36.0%) than with him (35.7%) in 2012. You're using a unproven conjecture to support a huge one-year jump in value. Other than you just saying it, present some tangible reason why we should suddenly expect a sizable bump in Rubio's FG%.

As I mentioned earlier, Rubio's shooting struggles have dated back to his youth career playing in Spain. It was the biggest knock on him as a prospect. His issue is with his form and mechanics, not defensive pressure. Unless you expect Mark Price to come in and work with Rubio every day on his form, a one-year jump of 4+ percent is a statistical oddity. Just ask the Kevin Peltons and Bradford Doolitles of the world who do this for a living at Basketball Prospectus (they have him at 37.6% by the way).

Anyways, feel free to take Rubio Rounds 3-4, especially in the leagues you're playing with me. ;-)
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:06 am

I don't really see Marc Gasol as the worst pick in 1st.

When you tak that late and still want to remain competitive, you obviously don't have so much luxury. You can pick some risky player or go the boring way.

Yes, Gasol is not the sexiest pick. But he seems to be a good foundation for so many cats.

Many managers say, that they already decided to punt here or there... Marc is a great opportunity to test one of the least popular roto strategies. Punting PPG doesn't look particularily common way to win a championship but could be a great and interesting one.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:16 pm

jphanned wrote:@jay - At least 9.2 apg and 2.6 spg? You know how many players have done that in the last 18 years? One. And he went fourth overall.

You do realize he posted 8.2 apg and 2.2 spg as a ROOKIE, right? And as much you want to dismiss his PAB numbers, he did bump his stls numbers to 2.9, which was the league lead, and managed 7.5 asts with a depleted roster. Projecting that he would average only ONE more assist and .4 stls more than what he did as a rookie is somehow unrealistic to you? I mean you said his numbers would improve slightly (you failed to mention again what you project from him). Please explain what you consider "slightly".

It sounds like you expect him to shoot 36% his entire career, and at this point it almost sounds like you expect him to regress. I find this somewhat comical. :-b
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:31 pm

jphanned wrote:@Fenris - Baseline means a starting point, not an expectation or projection. 2011-2012 is the last available usable data we have when he played with Love. I expect modest improvements on those numbers, but not anywhere near what jay laid out. You made a legitimate point according to what? I'm saying - there is no data or study that even remotely confirms or suggests your claim. Just because it sounds good in your head doesn't make it statistically significant.
I don't remember you being such a dismissive asshat. Are you feeling alright? :-b (now that sounded good in my head) The game is called basketball, and when a good player plays with better players than he has previous it follows naturally and logically that he will put up with less defensive attention in some fashion. It's not a strange idea. It doesn't necessarily mean a jump in FG% of course, but it could, and Rubio's career numbers could easily support a projection closer to .400 on the season. It could also mean a bunch of other small bumps in production. My point was more that there is room for some across the board improvements rather than specifically a huge jump in FG%. FG% was the example, but perhaps I wasn't clear enough about the line of reasoning, because you obviously missed my point.

I do actually think his shooting will be better this year btw, had you taken the time to ask I would have said in the .380 to .400 range, which isn't that much higher than the Prospectus guy and looks like a 1 or 2 point bump, not the 4 point bump you're so quick to ridicule. Whatever though.

jphanned wrote:Anyways, feel free to take Rubio Rounds 3-4, especially in the leagues you're playing with me. ;-)

Will do. ;-D It's not as though I'm the only guy who has him ranked in the 30-45 range either, so you'll probably have the opportunity to not draft him there in most of your leagues. :-D
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:57 pm

Yeah, not too interested in a petty name-calling argument, so here are my Rubio projections:

11.1 ppg, 0.6 threes, 8.5 apg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 3.1 TO
37% FG (9.3 FGA), 80% FT (4.4 FTA)

That would put his per-game value at 0.02, which would've been good for 61st last year.

Two closing points:
1) Again, he played with Love in 2012 and shot just 35.7%. I don't get why re-introducing him back into the mix two years later suddenly makes such a dramatic impact. Also your defensive attention argument starts to fall apart when you look at how poor a finisher Rubio is at the rim (44%), and how big a chunk of his shots that makes up (33%).

2) Rubio shoots out of necessity more than anything. He takes what the defenses gives him, and he's quite judicious with his shot. Defenses already played way off of him last year a la Rondo, and he'd routinely miss open jumpers. The addition of Martin and re-entry of Love won't dramatically change how teams gameplan for him.
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