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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:35 pm

jphanned wrote:Yeah, not too interested in a petty name-calling argument,

Hah, me neither. Nor in finger pointing about accusations of making things up out of whole cloth when that's pretty obviously not the case. Just saying. ;-)

jphanned wrote:so here are my Rubio projections:

11.1 ppg, 0.6 threes, 8.5 apg, 4.2 rpg, 2.4 spg, 0.2 bpg, 3.1 TO
37% FG (9.3 FGA), 80% FT (4.4 FTA)

That would put his per-game value at 0.02, which would've been good for 61st last year.

Those aren't that far off where I'd peg him (which is what I suspected would be the case). The little differences change the ranking a fair bit though. I have him closer to a three per (.8 or .9), and somewhere between half and a full Ast more per game. Plus I have him shooting more like .385. I don't do the BBM math, but I bet that changes the ranking a bunch. Is it optimistic? Yeah, probably, but not unduly so IMO (of course you'll disagree about the FG%, but that's why we do these mocks).

jphanned wrote:Two closing points:
1) Again, he played with Love in 2012 and shot just 35.7%. I don't get why re-introducing him back into the mix two years later suddenly makes such a dramatic impact. Also your defensive attention argument starts to fall apart when you look at how poor a finisher Rubio is at the rim (44%), and how big a chunk of his shots that makes up (33%).
Because it was his rookie year? And now he's a third year NBA guard - isn't that when people generally get optimistic about guys improving their game and really hitting their stride? I think the floor spacing with Love and Martin on the court might help that unsightly percentage too, at least a little bit.

jphanned wrote:2) Rubio shoots out of necessity more than anything. He takes what the defenses gives him, and he's quite judicious with his shot. Defenses already played way off of him last year a la Rondo, and he'd routinely miss open jumpers. The addition of Martin and re-entry of Love won't dramatically change how teams gameplan for him.
I agree completely, even if my projections are closer to the mark it wouldn't make a lick of differnce for how real teams prepare for him - either way he's a sub-.400 shooter and teams are going to sag off him.

Anyway, I think we're both probably done talking about Rubio. Well, I am anyway. So, moving on... :-D
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:44 pm

Yeah, let's not name call. We can have discussions/disagreements without letting it get personal. ;-D

I personally haven't done any of these so called projections you all speak of, but barring some minor tweaks, I'm inclined to agree with Justin's projections. Technically I could see a slight bump in points and maybe less TOs, but I could see fewer threes and boards too. I'd have to look at the math a bit though, because even though Rubio's a crappy shooter, crappy shooting at 40% instead of 37% would be about a .7 increase in Z scores on give or take 9 attempts per game.

Fenris sneaked in a post and I want to comment that I'm torn on Rubio's threes. I think like a lot of young PGs in his mold, he needs to just focus on a mid range jumper first. If he can do that and shoot better from the field (or respectable) I think it comes at possibly fewer threes. If he shoots the three, then I wouldn't expect much increase if any in FG%. Minnesota shot dead last, last season with a .305 team 3PT%. With Love back, Budinger healthy, and the recent acquisitions, I wouldn't expect the need for Rubio to shoot the three to be super high, but we'll see.

If John Wall hadn't been taken Rubio probably would have been my worst third round pick. I'd prefer Jennings, Lawson, Walker, Lillard, and Holiday over him personally.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:45 pm

Did you guys know that when you search 'asshat' on google, the first two images are as follows:

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Image

Of course there are numerous good ones, but at a quick glance, I'm partial to:

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and

Image

That folks, concludes Redhopeful's fun images for the day! ;-)

As far the Rubio debacle, I will say I expect his FG% to finish higher than in years past. Fully healthy/return of best mobility + being 23 years old should improve the percentages at and around the rim (at a minimum).
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:57 pm

Interestingly enough, Rubio's shooting (which is always bad), is at its best when he doesn't have multiple days of rest off. And the numbers go back and forth a bit, but in general the more he shoots, the better his FG% is. Obviously a streaky shooter at best and if he attempts fewer shots or similar amounts, hard to justify much of an improvement.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:21 pm

I guess we'll all agree to disagree on Rubio. However, I reserve my right to gloat once he backs me up. :-b

Its all good if you do as well, no harm in a little trash talk.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 19, 2013 6:24 pm

jay_00 wrote:I guess we'll all agree to disagree on Rubio. However, I reserve my right to gloat once he backs me up. :-b


That's the best part of these early mocks. If you do poorly most will forget and you can just blame it on an early mock. If you do well and nab some steals, you can bring it up and shove it in everyone's face. :-D
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby plonden » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:22 pm

Since I sat out the early rounds of this, I'll post my commentary for the Fourth Round.

Best Pick: Dwight Howard

Honestly, I was set to pick Howard as my worst pick of the round but then I thought about this team. I don't think the team could compete with some of the teams that lucked into early picks on a level playing field. So this team needs to "un-level" the playing field. By punting, DV's team now has a shot, if only a longshot. The key to this build is figuring out how to draft Howard without punting multiple categories (FT%, 3PTM, TOs are the concerns). This is no easy task but I like the gamble at this stage of the draft.

Worst Pick: DeMarcus Cousins

Maybe this is the year that Cousins finally puts it all together. Maybe not. I've rolled the dice on Cousins before and have gotten burned. So I think my motivation is probably out of a place of bitterness rather than cold objectiveness. Either way, I think Cousins was a round or two premature with guys like David Lee and David West still available. My main beef with Cousins, besides his attitude, is his inefficiency with negatives in FT% and TOs and a break-even FG%. For one of your primary big men, it hurts to lack a positive impact on FG%. This needs to be made up somewhere else. I would have even gone with Blake Griffin here with hopes of the "Doc Rivers Effect."
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby The Thrill » Mon Aug 19, 2013 7:29 pm

slawek wrote:I don't really see Marc Gasol as the worst pick in 1st.

When you tak that late and still want to remain competitive, you obviously don't have so much luxury. You can pick some risky player or go the boring way.

Yes, Gasol is not the sexiest pick. But he seems to be a good foundation for so many cats.

Many managers say, that they already decided to punt here or there... Marc is a great opportunity to test one of the least popular roto strategies. Punting PPG doesn't look particularily common way to win a championship but could be a great and interesting one.


I admire the thought. And would love to see someone try it! But in a standard setup where you count 3's as well, I think this would be awfully challenging. I'd have to give that some more thought and stat digging, but I see punting PTS and not punting 3's as the biggest challenge to this. :-?
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:13 pm

The Thrill wrote:
slawek wrote:I don't really see Marc Gasol as the worst pick in 1st.

When you tak that late and still want to remain competitive, you obviously don't have so much luxury. You can pick some risky player or go the boring way.

Yes, Gasol is not the sexiest pick. But he seems to be a good foundation for so many cats.

Many managers say, that they already decided to punt here or there... Marc is a great opportunity to test one of the least popular roto strategies. Punting PPG doesn't look particularily common way to win a championship but could be a great and interesting one.


I admire the thought. And would love to see someone try it! But in a standard setup where you count 3's as well, I think this would be awfully challenging. I'd have to give that some more thought and stat digging, but I see punting PTS and not punting 3's as the biggest challenge to this. :-?


I pseudo tried this last season I think in the FBC Octagon, but it didn't go so well. I blame Josh Smith though.

The funny part is it's more doable than you think. Korver, Foye, Danny Green, Wes Matthews, Delfino, and Novak are all guys you could target in later rounds easily, or could last season anyway.

If you could go Gasol and maybe Ibaka or something along those lines, it might make sense. Not sure I'd attempt it in a snake draft, but in an auction you might have a better chance. You'd just want to avoid tanking the more common cats like FT%.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:30 am

plonden wrote:Worst Pick: DeMarcus Cousins

Maybe this is the year that Cousins finally puts it all together. Maybe not. I've rolled the dice on Cousins before and have gotten burned. So I think my motivation is probably out of a place of bitterness rather than cold objectiveness. Either way, I think Cousins was a round or two premature with guys like David Lee and David West still available. My main beef with Cousins, besides his attitude, is his inefficiency with negatives in FT% and TOs and a break-even FG%. For one of your primary big men, it hurts to lack a positive impact on FG%. This needs to be made up somewhere else. I would have even gone with Blake Griffin here with hopes of the "Doc Rivers Effect."

And, with drafting Irving, Ibaka, Ilyasova, I've already gotten a good start mitigating any possible damage. ;-)

No doubt you list two guys (Lee/West) who perennially rank rather well, but they aren't without a few question marks themselves. ;-7
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