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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby geodbear » Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:05 am

RedHopeful wrote:And, with drafting Irving, Ibaka, Ilyasova, I've already gotten a good start mitigating any possible damage. ;-)


Are you planning on drafting Iguodala next? I think that would give you all the active players with last names starting with I.
Yes, Warriors sold at last!
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DVauthrin » Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:39 am

plonden wrote:Since I sat out the early rounds of this, I'll post my commentary for the Fourth Round.

Best Pick: Dwight Howard

Honestly, I was set to pick Howard as my worst pick of the round but then I thought about this team. I don't think the team could compete with some of the teams that lucked into early picks on a level playing field. So this team needs to "un-level" the playing field. By punting, DV's team now has a shot, if only a longshot. The key to this build is figuring out how to draft Howard without punting multiple categories (FT%, 3PTM, TOs are the concerns). This is no easy task but I like the gamble at this stage of the draft.

Worst Pick: DeMarcus Cousins

Maybe this is the year that Cousins finally puts it all together. Maybe not. I've rolled the dice on Cousins before and have gotten burned. So I think my motivation is probably out of a place of bitterness rather than cold objectiveness. Either way, I think Cousins was a round or two premature with guys like David Lee and David West still available. My main beef with Cousins, besides his attitude, is his inefficiency with negatives in FT% and TOs and a break-even FG%. For one of your primary big men, it hurts to lack a positive impact on FG%. This needs to be made up somewhere else. I would have even gone with Blake Griffin here with hopes of the "Doc Rivers Effect."


You pretty much summed up exactly my reasoning for taking Howard. I basically must win field goal percentage and boards to make up for a 1 in free throw percentage and poor turnovers. Then be good in all other areas. I felt like he was the one guy that gave me a chance if we played this out to win a league with this many good owners picking 9th.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DVauthrin » Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:25 am

As for the Rose pick, I don't disagree that it was the worst pick of the first round, but picking 9th is a bad spot. I wanted Irving, and Red sniped him in front of me. And I just don't believe teams built around Aldridge, Jefferson, or Marc Gasol are going to win you a league. Not with the caliber of talent available early in round 1.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:14 am

DVauthrin wrote:As for the Rose pick, I don't disagree that it was the worst pick of the first round, but picking 9th is a bad spot. I wanted Irving, and Red sniped him in front of me. And I just don't believe teams built around Aldridge, Jefferson, or Marc Gasol are going to win you a league. Not with the caliber of talent available early in round 1.

By the same token, teams built around Rose are just as unlikely to win you a league IMO. I think you need to start thinking about punts and whatnot if you're drafting in that slot, anything to tilt the draft board back in your favor.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Tue Aug 20, 2013 7:36 am

Well, Josh Smith is one of the guys I definately don't consider while talking about the punt PPG strategy :-)
Maintaining good ratios becomes critical then and fortunately there are bunches of playes ready to help us here.

Is getting threes really so difficult when you don't care about points?
let's see at BBM ranks - name, threes avg (at least 1,5) and punt+, sorted desc by punt ratio (unfortunately there's no JKidd available anymore):

forgotten Shane Battier - 1.9, 0.18 - getting old, but with Miller gone and Dwyane nursing his damages you could do worse in last round within this strategy
Steve Novak - 1.8, 0.16
Steve Blake - 1.6, 0.15
Mario Chalmers - 1.6, 0.13
Jodie Meeks - 1.6, 0.12
Dorell Wright - 1.7, 0.11 - yes some of the tend to kill FG, but we're talking about last round additions here and the list is wide enough so you can avoid them as well
Chauncey Billups - 1.5, 0.11
Danny Green - 2.2, 0.10
Kyle Korver - 2.6, 0.10 !!
Jose Calderon - 1.8, 0.08
Carlos Delfino 2.4, 0.08
Jrich/Dunlo - both 1.7, 0.07
Lowry - 1.5, 0.06
and finally the biggest 3pt source for years - Ray Allen 1.8, 0.06

The list could be even more impressive if we lower the entry point a bit. Most of these guys would get completely overlooked by the competition. The same can be said about many other category specialists. We could find soooo many opportunities to help our team down the road when punting PPG.

As for Rose case - DV finally punted FT so he's going 8 cat anyway. Will he handle his other cats good enough to remain on top? We'll see.

I'm not the most experienced guy when it comes to practicing this strategy. One of my friends and long time rivals - wiLQ from the weaksideawareness.wordpress.com blog is the best guy here I know. Feel free to invite us to your mock next year (and make sure we're not able to get Durant :D) and we'll all test how it works.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:04 am

slawek wrote:Well, Josh Smith is one of the guys I definately don't consider while talking about the punt PPG strategy :-)
Maintaining good ratios becomes critical then and fortunately there are bunches of playes ready to help us here.
Is getting threes really so difficult when you don't care about points?


First off punting ppg is an unorthodox strategy, but if you come to the draft prepared just to do that (so it's not a mere coincidence)- it will work just as well as any other punting strategy. The good thing is - most probably you won't have a lot of competition here as compared to punting FG%, TO's or blk.
Getting threes is the least of a concern as you have a whole bunch of role players who will provide you with just that. What you will have to worry about though is maintaining your FG% AND FT% as you have much smaller margin of error here (less pts = less FGM and FTM), so you cannot really afford to hire any ratio-cancers.
So punting ppg is not really about perimiter scorers - it's more about efficient centers.
Also - another critical stat (especially when you consider hiring Steve Novaks of the world) are the steals. But at least recently we've seen a bunch of big guys with decent steal numbers (Amir, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol or Andy Varejao) so you can address at least part of the problem.

All in all - punting ppg is doable, but it takes real committment :-)
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Tue Aug 20, 2013 9:52 am

Leszczur wrote:First off punting ppg is an unorthodox strategy, but if you come to the draft prepared just to do that (so it's not a mere coincidence)- it will work just as well as any other punting strategy. The good thing is - most probably you won't have a lot of competition here as compared to punting FG%, TO's or blk.


... or FT, probably the most popular one because of all the Shaqs and Dwigths :-)

Getting threes is the least of a concern as you have a whole bunch of role players who will provide you with just that. What you will have to worry about though is maintaining your FG% AND FT% as you have much smaller margin of error here (less pts = less FGM and FTM), so you cannot really afford to hire any ratio-cancers.


Yes, definately you need to tak care of steals early on. But see, there are also less heralded fantasy players you definately want to draft when completing your roster. Think of Danny Green, Mario Chalmers, Thabo and so on. They hit 3s, steal and don't kill FG.

So punting ppg is not really about perimiter scorers - it's more about efficient centers.
Also - another critical stat (especially when you consider hiring Steve Novaks of the world) are the steals. But at least recently we've seen a bunch of big guys with decent steal numbers (Amir, Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol or Andy Varejao) so you can address at least part of the problem.


Easily you can add Noah to the mix. Awesome player for this strategy... when healthy :-(

Someone earlier brought a good point - it's usually easier when you're in an auction draft as you can precisely target certain players. But I also can't see any problems going this way in snakes. Every round you can find someone much more valuable for you because you went in a slightly different direction than the rest of competition.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:47 pm

slawek wrote:Someone earlier brought a good point - it's usually easier when you're in an auction draft as you can precisely target certain players. But I also can't see any problems going this way in snakes. Every round you can find someone much more valuable for you because you went in a slightly different direction than the rest of competition.


In auction you can have additional constraint with the budget - especially later in the draft. Snake (especially like that one with 24 hrs for each pick) I would see as an easier option as it is simple to monitor statistical profile of each team and predict (to some extent) where each manager is going.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:04 pm

Leszczur wrote:Snake (especially like that one with 24 hrs for each pick) I would see as an easier option as it is simple to monitor statistical profile of each team and predict (to some extent) where each manager is going.


I've recently grown up to the idea that I don't need to monitor league stats. As long as my categories meet some good standards, I'm safe. Rivals' roto profiles tend to change due to injuries, deals, even good pickups (hello Sanders, Amir and so on).

Looks like we somehow went off-topic :-) To forum moderators - is it acceptable or you can suggest another good place to continue?
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DVauthrin » Tue Aug 20, 2013 1:55 pm

Fenris-77 wrote:
DVauthrin wrote:As for the Rose pick, I don't disagree that it was the worst pick of the first round, but picking 9th is a bad spot. I wanted Irving, and Red sniped him in front of me. And I just don't believe teams built around Aldridge, Jefferson, or Marc Gasol are going to win you a league. Not with the caliber of talent available early in round 1.

By the same token, teams built around Rose are just as unlikely to win you a league IMO. I think you need to start thinking about punts and whatnot if you're drafting in that slot, anything to tilt the draft board back in your favor.


We could just say teams picking after 8 are very unlikely to win a roto league without creative gambles and punting.
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