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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:11 pm

DVauthrin wrote:We could just say teams picking after 8 are very unlikely to win a roto league without creative gambles and punting.


Personally I wouldn't even feel much better picking 6th, let's say...
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Tue Aug 20, 2013 2:56 pm

slawek wrote:
Leszczur wrote:Snake (especially like that one with 24 hrs for each pick) I would see as an easier option as it is simple to monitor statistical profile of each team and predict (to some extent) where each manager is going.


I've recently grown up to the idea that I don't need to monitor league stats. As long as my categories meet some good standards, I'm safe. Rivals' roto profiles tend to change due to injuries, deals, even good pickups (hello Sanders, Amir and so on).

Looks like we somehow went off-topic :-) To forum moderators - is it acceptable or you can suggest another good place to continue?


You're good to go. Comments are welcome on or off topic.

What I found when tanking points, was that my FG% was all over the place from my three point shooting guys, and they shot so few free throws that I had a hard time winning FT% even though I didn't have absolutely horrible FT shooters. It created weirder problems than I thought. I was also playing H2H for the record.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:29 pm

I think I would be able to maintain FG if setting a good foundation in round 1/2 and avoiding killers later.
Actually I'm getting more and more interested in the experiment. I'm going to simulate such mock sitting as the 9th team (as everything started with Rose-Gasol dillema). Every imagined round I will take an available (according to your mock at this time) player and see if I manage to create a good team while punting pts.

I'll let you guys know :-)
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:50 pm

slawek wrote:I think I would be able to maintain FG if setting a good foundation in round 1/2 and avoiding killers later.
Actually I'm getting more and more interested in the experiment. I'm going to simulate such mock sitting as the 9th team (as everything started with Rose-Gasol dillema). Every imagined round I will take an available (according to your mock at this time) player and see if I manage to create a good team while punting pts.

I'll let you guys know :-)


Players ADPs will surely change, but I would think you could guesstimate a bit. A Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka start would be nice. Mike Conley would probably be necessary. Calderon would be nice too. Let us know. ;-D
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby dcdoorknob » Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:16 pm

slawek wrote:
DVauthrin wrote:We could just say teams picking after 8 are very unlikely to win a roto league without creative gambles and punting.


Personally I wouldn't even feel much better picking 6th, let's say...


Amen! :-D

Punt points is a funky little thing to pull off well. I think something like steals can actually be pretty hard to keep high, moreso than 3s (especially if you miss on Conley), and keeping both %s nice and high at once is always a challenge.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby plonden » Wed Aug 21, 2013 4:53 am

Here are my selections for the Fifth Round:

Best Pick(s): Derrick Favors & Chandler Parsons

I love both of these guys in this round. With Millsap and Jefferson gone, the sky is the limit for Favors and this is the right time to swoop him up if you want to make sure you land him this season. His per-36's are very nice and if he improves at all he'll be a great value here. I also like the Parsons pick a lot. Parsons will play a key role in spacing the floor for Dwight and company (.385 3PT% last season). I couldn't decide between the two but I'd give the edge to Favors because he was the last pick of the round.

Worst Pick: Amir Johnson

Valanciunas will likely emerge as the key big in Toronto, and a key part of the offense after Gay and Lowry. The result will likely be Johnson cleaning up the scraps. Granted, Johnson is perfectly suited for this role but it doesn't bode well for improvement upon last season's 10 points, 7.5 boards, 1 steal, 1.4 blocks. It's not a bad pick it just strikes me as a single, rather than a potential home run (like with Favors or Parsons, both of which were selected after Johnson).
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby plonden » Wed Aug 21, 2013 6:42 am

Here are my selections for the Sixth Round:

Best Pick: Jeff Green

For a guy that has been hyped up before, this certainly feels like the year that Jeff Green puts it all together. He showed flashes of brilliance last year, and the Celtics have made a decent final commitment to Green. With the Celtics in tank mode, it seems like Green is going to get his this season, even if Boston doesn't win very many games. Plus, with Rondo out early, Green will probably start the season with an artificially high usage rate. This looks like a good value pick at this point in the draft with some upside.

Worst Pick: Bradley Beal

Honestly, I think Beal could have been picked up much later in the draft, even if you were confident he'd produce enough to merit the draft pick. Overall, Beal hasn't shown me enough to get really excited about him. He lacks efficiency and multi-cat production. I won't deny that Beal is young and some improvement is to be expected. That being said, I think this pick was a few rounds early.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:59 am

plonden wrote:Worst Pick: Bradley Beal

Honestly, I think Beal could have been picked up much later in the draft, even if you were confident he'd produce enough to merit the draft pick. Overall, Beal hasn't shown me enough to get really excited about him. He lacks efficiency and multi-cat production. I won't deny that Beal is young and some improvement is to be expected. That being said, I think this pick was a few rounds early.


I was aiming for either Beal or Pierce at the 10th spot of the 6th round, so he wouldnt have been available. If you consider Beal's numbers with Wall in the lineup and without him, its like night and day. He shot 47% PAB and averaged 5.7 rebs, 16.5 ppg, and hit 2.1 threes a game which is extremely solid. I think that rebounding total is the most important thing coming from a SG. Considering he only averaged 1.8 tos PAB as well, he certainly has the capability to be a multi cat producer.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:36 am

You and your sample sizes jay. :-B

I don't disagree that Beal plays better with Wall, but that's putting a lot of stock into a relatively small sample that may or may not be conclusive. Treating those numbers as if they were gospel and using them to project out a full season's worth of data will get you in trouble more often than not.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:09 am

Regarding the pick of Martin.
This should make me the one of the frontrunners in ft% since I already have harden, nash, and rubio.


You also have Blake Griffin (notorious FT killer) and Timmy can revert to his old self. In such case you are more in the middle of the pack rather than frontrunner.
And don't forget that Hibbert has some history of below average FT shooting. So I can see as much downside as upside here.
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