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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:46 am

jphanned wrote:You and your sample sizes jay. :-B

I don't disagree that Beal plays better with Wall, but that's putting a lot of stock into a relatively small sample that may or may not be conclusive. Treating those numbers as if they were gospel and using them to project out a full season's worth of data will get you in trouble more often than not.


I just love those cases when we base our whole strategy on a small sample that is being generously projected to the whole season. I mean there's nothing wrong with drafting prospects, players in contract year, 3rd year players etc. But what matters is how much combined risk are we willing to take with our core picks.
Drafting one player based purely on potential, hunch or gut feeling is one thing, but making "best case scenario" your strategy of choice for big part of the draft is something else.
Lets take few examples here: taking Bledsoe, Rubio or Beal as early as some of you did - is willingful resignation of their biggest potential which is outproducing their ADP. Let's be generous and assume that you have 50% chance of such a pick to work out as you predict. What is the chance 3 or 4 such picks do just that in the same season? Quite low right? And whatever those picks lack - will have to be made up somehwere else - eating away you gains of your safer picks.
I know you probably won't win a lot of roto leagues by playing it safe all the time, but the risk simply has to be calulated, and picking for instance Beal that early is stacking the odds against you. At least IMVHO.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DamnLies » Wed Aug 21, 2013 7:52 pm

plonden wrote:
Worst Pick: Bradley Beal

Honestly, I think Beal could have been picked up much later in the draft, even if you were confident he'd produce enough to merit the draft pick. Overall, Beal hasn't shown me enough to get really excited about him. He lacks efficiency and multi-cat production. I won't deny that Beal is young and some improvement is to be expected. That being said, I think this pick was a few rounds early.


Welp, as the Beal drafter I feel I should jump in. "Much later"? I wouldn't have gotten him with my next pick, that's already been corroborated. And who are these magical players in the middle of the 6th round of a 12-team league that don't come with risk? If you draft LeBron or Durant you can surely sit there and pick safely off the BBM/Yahoo/ESPN end-of-season rankings, but we're at that point of the draft where risk is inherently written into the equation. I don't want to play it safe. I didn't even want any other players available at the time that much. I didn't say, 'gee, this guy is a sure thing, but I'm going Beal instead.' Every pick from here on out is going to be someone that everyone passed on up until now. It's time to get the guy you want based on your own future projections, which of course are going to be optimistic for the guy you picked.

Is it that crazy to be high on Brad Beal, regardless of his splits? Please take a look at Washington's roster and tell me who the heck else is going to score.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Wed Aug 21, 2013 8:32 pm

DamnLies wrote:Welp, as the Beal drafter I feel I should jump in. "Much later"? I wouldn't have gotten him with my next pick, that's already been corroborated. And who are these magical players in the middle of the 6th round of a 12-team league that don't come with risk?


There's a risk in climbing up the ladder blindfolded, and there's a risk of riding you car upstream on the highway. See the difference? :-D

Every pick from here on out is going to be someone that everyone passed on up until now. It's time to get the guy you want based on your own future projections, which of course are going to be optimistic for the guy you picked.


So you think it's better to nab a Top80 guy with say a Top80 pick instead of Top100 pick if you have a chance?

Please take a look at Washington's roster and tell me who the heck else is going to score.


But those "scorers by default" more often than not tend to be one trick ponies that pad one stat while killing you in few others. Say Beal will score in bunches. Will he be efficient? If there are indeed no other legitimate scoring options - you think he will have much room to operate? I kinda doubt it.
I had run a player profile comparison (league versus Bradley Beal). At the moment the most similar player in terms of production is .... Brandon Knight. Would you be thrilled to pick Knight around that pick??? Well me neither...
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DamnLies » Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:17 pm

Leszczur wrote:There's a risk in climbing up the ladder blindfolded, and there's a risk of riding you car upstream on the highway. See the difference? :-D


Beal would have gone, at most, four picks later.

Leszczur wrote:So you think it's better to nab a Top80 guy with say a Top80 pick instead of Top100 pick if you have a chance?


My own projections and rankings have him better than 80. It's okay if your's don't, but neither of us are wrong yet. I'm interested in when the ADP numbers start coming in. If Beal's around 100, okay, but I'd be surprised.

Leszczur wrote:But those "scorers by default" more often than not tend to be one trick ponies that pad one stat while killing you in few others. Say Beal will score in bunches. Will he be efficient? If there are indeed no other legitimate scoring options - you think he will have much room to operate? I kinda doubt it.
I had run a player profile comparison (league versus Bradley Beal). At the moment the most similar player in terms of production is .... Brandon Knight. Would you be thrilled to pick Knight around that pick??? Well me neither...


I don't believe Beal will "kill" me in any categories other than perhaps FG%. We're not talking about "those scorer's by default", just Brad Beal. With Wall, Webster and Nene, I do believe there will be some room to operate. I just don't think the other guys will score a ton. Finally, I don't doubt that Beal's 2012-13 numbers return some ugly comparisons. This is a draft for next year, though. Expecting significant improvement from Beal in his second season is not a hail mary. I took him 78th.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby RedHopeful » Wed Aug 21, 2013 9:21 pm

DamnLies wrote:
Leszczur wrote:So you think it's better to nab a Top80 guy with say a Top80 pick instead of Top100 pick if you have a chance?

My own projections and rankings have him better than 80. It's okay if your's don't, but neither of us are wrong yet. I'm interested in when the ADP numbers start coming in. If Beal's around 100, okay, but I'd be surprised.

So this. And to go one step further, I'm not the biggest fan of ADP. All my leagues are vastly competitive, so to get the guys I really want, I have to play an even broader game of chicken.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby plonden » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:29 pm

DamnLies wrote:Welp, as the Beal drafter I feel I should jump in. "Much later"? I wouldn't have gotten him with my next pick, that's already been corroborated. And who are these magical players in the middle of the 6th round of a 12-team league that don't come with risk? If you draft LeBron or Durant you can surely sit there and pick safely off the BBM/Yahoo/ESPN end-of-season rankings, but we're at that point of the draft where risk is inherently written into the equation. I don't want to play it safe. I didn't even want any other players available at the time that much. I didn't say, 'gee, this guy is a sure thing, but I'm going Beal instead.' Every pick from here on out is going to be someone that everyone passed on up until now. It's time to get the guy you want based on your own future projections, which of course are going to be optimistic for the guy you picked.

Thanks for the response. I underestimated the market for Beal's services this season, as others have corroborated his market value. I respect your take on Beal and I understand the sentiment, as I feel that way about certain guys this season as well. One thing I've learned in my six years at the Cafe is that those who aggressively (and correctly) target breakout players are rewarded handsomely, which allows these teams to compete with the teams built around the LeBron's and Durant's of the world. In this (mock) draft I'm lucky enough to be building around Durant so perhaps my perspective is conservatively skewed based on having the best building block in fantasy basketball this season.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DamnLies » Wed Aug 21, 2013 10:51 pm

plonden wrote:
DamnLies wrote:Welp, as the Beal drafter I feel I should jump in. "Much later"? I wouldn't have gotten him with my next pick, that's already been corroborated. And who are these magical players in the middle of the 6th round of a 12-team league that don't come with risk? If you draft LeBron or Durant you can surely sit there and pick safely off the BBM/Yahoo/ESPN end-of-season rankings, but we're at that point of the draft where risk is inherently written into the equation. I don't want to play it safe. I didn't even want any other players available at the time that much. I didn't say, 'gee, this guy is a sure thing, but I'm going Beal instead.' Every pick from here on out is going to be someone that everyone passed on up until now. It's time to get the guy you want based on your own future projections, which of course are going to be optimistic for the guy you picked.

Thanks for the response. I underestimated the market for Beal's services this season, as others have corroborated his market value. I respect your take on Beal and I understand the sentiment, as I feel that way about certain guys this season as well. One thing I've learned in my six years at the Cafe is that those who aggressively (and correctly) target breakout players are rewarded handsomely, which allows these teams to compete with the teams built around the LeBron's and Durant's of the world. In this (mock) draft I'm lucky enough to be building around Durant so perhaps my perspective is conservatively skewed based on having the best building block in fantasy basketball this season.


Yeah, a Durant build is a beautiful thing. My defensiveness is probably jealousy! :-D
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Wed Aug 21, 2013 11:15 pm

Leszczur wrote:I just love those cases when we base our whole strategy on a small sample that is being generously projected to the whole season. I mean there's nothing wrong with drafting prospects, players in contract year, 3rd year players etc. But what matters is how much combined risk are we willing to take with our core picks.
Drafting one player based purely on potential, hunch or gut feeling is one thing, but making "best case scenario" your strategy of choice for big part of the draft is something else.
Lets take few examples here: taking Bledsoe, Rubio or Beal as early as some of you did - is willingful resignation of their biggest potential which is outproducing their ADP. Let's be generous and assume that you have 50% chance of such a pick to work out as you predict. What is the chance 3 or 4 such picks do just that in the same season? Quite low right? And whatever those picks lack - will have to be made up somehwere else - eating away you gains of your safer picks.
I know you probably won't win a lot of roto leagues by playing it safe all the time, but the risk simply has to be calulated, and picking for instance Beal that early is stacking the odds against you. At least IMVHO.


Fact is that sometimes there isnt a stat to predict a breakout year from a prospect. Did anyone expect D. Rose's threes to go from 0.2 to 1.4 the following year?? I think not, and no research on this planet wouldve made you predict that. It was all a projected guess, and I ridiculed I think it was Kelly Dwyer of yahoo sports for drafting Rose in the 2nd round that year in a ROTO mock. Well he had the last laugh for sure.

Regarding small sample sizes and PAB numbers, theres several different prospects that i can name that have posted good PAB numbers or that finished the year strong in a small sample size, and gone on to produce extremely well the following years (Arenas, Lawson, Zach Randolph). Theres also some prospects that have posted good PAB numbers and failed miserably the following years (Darren Collison, Andray Blatche), so it goes both ways. It might be a risk drafting for potential, but unless you have KD or Bron, there really isnt a reason to play it safe.

I like to play to win, and anyone who has KD or Bron already has a significant advantage to win. Why make the safe pick, so you can HOPE to catch 3rd place? Thats not my style. Id rather aim for first place or go down in flames. You want to make the safe pick and shoot for 3rd place? Well congrats, but unless you get 1st or 2nd place, you would still be a loser in my book.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:38 am

jay_00 wrote:Fact is that sometimes there isnt a stat to predict a breakout year from a prospect. Did anyone expect D. Rose's threes to go from 0.2 to 1.4 the following year?? I think not, and no research on this planet wouldve made you predict that. It was all a projected guess, and I ridiculed I think it was Kelly Dwyer of yahoo sports for drafting Rose in the 2nd round that year in a ROTO mock. Well he had the last laugh for sure.


That's the beauty of fantasy. With Rose it wasn't only the numbers that suggested things to come, but he passed with flying colors the "eye test". Some players handle themselves in such way that you just know they "have it". Normally my decissions are driven by numbers and not the players' style, so of course I missed out on Derrick. But such success stories are seldom enough for me to not hang my whole season on picking a prospect.

It might be a risk drafting for potential, but unless you have KD or Bron, there really isnt a reason to play it safe.


I agree on the risk part. Though I guess we would have to agree to disagree on the actual amount of risk you need to take. That is also the beauty of roto, that you have multidimensional player values. It's not fantasy points that one player will give you such margin that it's almost irrelevant what you do next.
Not having LeDurant means you just have to be really careful with your team's profile and your chances to win it all will not be any lower that when you risk you life with every other pick. But obviously it's more about ones philosphy than anything else :-)

I like to play to win, and anyone who has KD or Bron already has a significant advantage to win. Why make the safe pick, so you can HOPE to catch 3rd place? Thats not my style. Id rather aim for first place or go down in flames. You want to make the safe pick and shoot for 3rd place? Well congrats, but unless you get 1st or 2nd place, you would still be a loser in my book.


First off - I don't believe KD and Bron give that big of an advantage so with safe picks you have no chance to win it all and you are doomed to 3rd at best. And I've seen enough cases of managers willing to go down in flames who lost interest in the league in January not to be the biggest fan of that approach. Not saying you might be one of those, but the rate of success here is not overwhelming :-)
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:55 am

Leszczur wrote:(...)First off - I don't believe KD and Bron give that big of an advantage (...)


It is... And it is massive. But there are ways to make it look more managable. It's roto, not fantasy points after all. So taking risks could be a solution but the higher we grab a prospekt, the less chances we obviously have to get a steal. Some of risky picks here were taken near their ceiling so yes, I would very often opt to go safe instead.

It's roto so we can also just focus on categories, not names. And build them with all the invented strategies, including puntings. There are so many possible ways to go so that high risk picks are not the only option. And that's the whole beauty of roto... And maybe even bigger beauty of h2h although I'm not equally experienced here to state so :-)...
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