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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jay_00 » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:17 pm

Leszczur wrote:But such success stories are seldom enough for me to not hang my whole season on picking a prospect.

You said it was seldom, but avoided the names I dropped off the top of my head (Arenas, Lawson, Zach). With the exception of Lawson, I invested heavily on every possible draft for the other two, and boy did that turn out monsterous for me. Oh and dont forget Granger and Troy Murphy's dominant fantasy years in Indiana in their primes. While both of them werent exactly unknowns (well maybe Murphy was),I took them in every draft I could get them on, and it was a large success. Both had great PAB's and good preseasons, once again, a small sample size. Granger was the only one who didnt have a small sample size, but he did go from like 17 a game to 24 PAB, and I figured he would continue that same pace for the following season. Not only did he do that, but he did even better.

Those were just a few names that i remember off the top of my head. Im positive that if i wanted too, i could remember a whole bunch more. Gambling on prospects has paid off for me in the past, but by all means, play the safe route...see how far that takes you.

Leszczur wrote:First off - I don't believe KD and Bron give that big of an advantage so with safe picks you have no chance to win it all and you are doomed to 3rd at best. And I've seen enough cases of managers willing to go down in flames who lost interest in the league in January not to be the biggest fan of that approach. Not saying you might be one of those, but the rate of success here is not overwhelming

Well being that Ive gone down in flames once in the cafe leagues, no im not one of those guys. I play to the end, and i attempt to improve my team however possible. However ive achieved 2nd and 3rd place finishes, both barely missing that elusive 1st place finish in these cafe leagues. I cant remember many times where i finished middle of the pack though. Its either a top 3 finsh, or bottom 3 for me usually. Thats what happens when you gamble.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 1:47 pm

One pick does not a draft make.

All of this negativity about not being able to win without making huge gambles against teams with Lebron and Durant is over rated.

I know this is a mock draft, but every manager is going to be susceptible to injury, every manager makes picks they they are solid and turn out horrible, every manager makes picks that are gambles and turn out great or horrible. Durant and Lebron owners are susceptible to the same pitfalls that other managers are. I'm not saying they aren't at an advantage, but Steph Curry was right there with Durant and Lebron over the final two months in fantasy production and both Lebron and Durant normalized quite substantially as the season went on. I'm an eternal optimist though. :-D
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Thu Aug 22, 2013 3:38 pm

Best and Worst picks continued...

Round Four

Best Pick: Josh Smith. Getting Smith in the fourth is pretty sexy, even with questions of fit looking over his first season in Detroit. If he spends a decent amount of time at PF, as essentially the third big, and some time at SF, rather than playing full-time SF, I think he'll still do that Josh Smith thing that we all love so much. I also doubt that Smith lasts this long in most drafts.

Worst Pick: Dwight Howard. I don't think Howard is always a bad pick in the fourth, but I only like on a purpose build Dwight FT% punt team. Otherwise I'd pass on him this high. The team he's on for this mock isn't really a FT% punt team, so Dwight may hurt more than he helps. Millsap is a .750-.800 guy and Horford is mid-.700's guy, neither is a prototypical Dwight-build big. They aren't useless for punting FT%, but it's not ideal, not when you're actually getting solid FT% from the guard corps. I may revise my opinion when I see the finished team.

Round Five

Best Pick: Kobe Bryant. Maybe. If Bryant is actually ahead of scehdule and doesn't miss much time this pick is going to be cash money. Or he could miss two months of the season and it looks like a flaming bag of crap. That said, I love the gamble when the price is this low. ;-D

Worst Pick: Amir Johnson. I love Amir Johnson for roto, but I don't love picking him at 52, which is pretty much his ceiling.

Round Six

Best Pick: Andre Iguodala. Iggy is in a great situation in GS - he's got great shooters and finishers around him and the team actually really needs his ball handling. I think Iggy is pretty much a lock to return value a round higher than his pick here, and could easily get back to his 11-12 form and crack the top 40.

Worst Pick: Rajon Rondo. This is all about the injury. I think he's going to miss more time than I'd like. There are some reports that he might be ready to start the season, but it's all a little murky. Boston isn't going to rush him back either (at all) so he makes me nervous this year. I'm also a little worried about his attitude and focus playing for a tank nation team of misfits too, but that's a distant second behind the injury concerns. If Rondo does start the season, or only misses a week or two, then the pick here is probably fine.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:05 pm

silentjim wrote:Worst Pick: Eric Bledsoe (4.02). Per 36 minutes are very tricky obviously. CJ Miles looks like a beast when you look at his per36, but no one is drafting him anytime soon. And Brandan Wright can have the same argument made for him and he could actually be in a nice situation this upcoming season.


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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:14 pm

jphanned wrote:
silentjim wrote:Worst Pick: Eric Bledsoe (4.02). Per 36 minutes are very tricky obviously. CJ Miles looks like a beast when you look at his per36, but no one is drafting him anytime soon. And Brandan Wright can have the same argument made for him and he could actually be in a nice situation this upcoming season.


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silentjim wrote:Worst Pick: Eric Bledsoe (4.02). I really don't know where Bledsoe's ADP will be this coming season, but I don't think you'll see him go any earlier than this anywhere. The steals and possible 15, 5, 5 would be nice (not sure its doable), but the high TOs and lack of threes will probably prevent his value from being super high. I think he's a solid pick, but again a round or two or three too early. Per 36 minutes are very tricky obviously. CJ Miles looks like a beast when you look at his per36, but no one is drafting him anytime soon. And Brandan Wright can have the same argument made for him and he could actually be in a nice situation this upcoming season.


Could I at least get my full comment quoted??? :-D :-D :-D And let's not pretend you didn't reference his per 36 minute numbers when you drafted him. :-B

What are your projections for him, that he'll return 4th round (almost 3rd) value or better? The steals he can probably sustain, but I don't think someone 6'1" is going to average over a block a game. That's Wade like blocks out of a SG and Wade's a much bigger player.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:29 pm

The first part of your comment wasn't any better. :-o

I don't really care about ADP in drafts like these. I'm not drafting against random guys in some Y! public league. What's relevant is how I perceive others in this mock valuate players, which ADP doesn't accurately reflect.

And when I said he posted near-equivalent value to Anthony Davis, that included TO's and threes. So I don't get why you're parsing that out from the overall line as if it hadn't already been factored in. If you go back and read my pick statement, per-36s were just a part of why I took him there. Comparing him to Miles and Wright (?????) shows a complete lack of context, of which I provided plenty earlier. Considering the pace differential between LA and what we'll see in Phoenix, I think he'll have plenty of room to exceed that projected 15-5-5 line. His per-minute numbers could slip, but the added possessions will allow him to make it up in the aggregate.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:34 pm

silentjim wrote:Could I at least get my full comment quoted??? :-D :-D :-D And let's not pretend you didn't reference his per 36 minute numbers when you drafted him. :-B

What are your projections for him, that he'll return 4th round (almost 3rd) value or better? The steals he can probably sustain, but I don't think someone 6'1" is going to average over a block a game. That's Wade like blocks out of a SG and Wade's a much bigger player.


To be fair, I don't think he was actually saying that he expects the full per-36 numbers as actual production this season, but referenced it more to support the high upside potential of the pick. As for the block numbers, Bledsoe did manage to average 1.3 bpg over a 12 game period when he was starting last season. I wouldn't expect him to maintain that, but I wouldn't be surprised either with the run-n-gun style Phoenix is going to play. Pretty sure they'll be playing at a higher pace than the Clippers did last season, and Bledsoe is the type to go for spectacular defensive plays all the time.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:43 pm

How do you not care about ADP? or at least the possibility of it? We'd have to take a vote, but I'm fairly certain no on was looking to take Bledsoe in the 4th round. Even in an expert league. Leszczur made a comment earlier about how drafting guys like Rubio, Bledsoe, and Beal is just leaving too little room for error and I whole heartedly agree.

Guys can definitely make huge strides in fantasy value given good situations, playing time, and just skill level to begin with but I don't see his draft position returning that value or surpassing it.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:49 pm

bokzg wrote:
silentjim wrote:Could I at least get my full comment quoted??? :-D :-D :-D And let's not pretend you didn't reference his per 36 minute numbers when you drafted him. :-B

What are your projections for him, that he'll return 4th round (almost 3rd) value or better? The steals he can probably sustain, but I don't think someone 6'1" is going to average over a block a game. That's Wade like blocks out of a SG and Wade's a much bigger player.


To be fair, I don't think he was actually saying that he expects the full per-36 numbers as actual production this season, but referenced it more to support the high upside potential of the pick. As for the block numbers, Bledsoe did manage to average 1.3 bpg over a 12 game period when he was starting last season. I wouldn't expect him to maintain that, but I wouldn't be surprised either with the run-n-gun style Phoenix is going to play. Pretty sure they'll be playing at a higher pace than the Clippers did last season, and Bledsoe is the type to go for spectacular defensive plays all the time.


I agree. I'm just pointing out that Brandan Wright's high upside potential is a second rounder if he got 36 minutes a game or close to it.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 22, 2013 9:58 pm

silentjim wrote:I agree. I'm just pointing out that Brandan Wright's high upside potential is a second rounder if he got 36 minutes a game or close to it.


If Brandan Wright had played and continued to play 36 mpg he'd be drafted close to where Sanders is. I'd draft him in Round 4 without a second thought. He has no shot at getting that type of PT though, so what's the point of even bringing him up? I don't get it.
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