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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 22, 2013 10:05 pm

silentjim wrote:I agree. I'm just pointing out that Brandan Wright's high upside potential is a second rounder if he got 36 minutes a game or close to it.


True, but, as far as I know, we've never actually seen Wright play anything close to 36 min/g over 10+ games or actually deliver on his per-36 numbers. Plus, when he's on the floor, he's not the type to have the ball in his hands and create for himself. A lot of what led to his production was the offense he played in and the teammates who set him up.

On the other hand, we've seen Bledsoe as a starter before. Once when he was a rookie and was thrown into the fire while Baron was injured, where he struggled but still managed to show fantasy potential by displaying incredible athleticism, gradual improvement, and production across the board. The Wade-like potential was glimpsed. Then, we saw it again last season for 12 games when CP3 was out, and he delivered on the promise he displayed before and put up very impressive production. Lastly, Bledsoe is going into an ideal situation by joining a team that fully invested in his development, doesn't care about winning, plays at a fast pace in a run-n-gun style, and where he'll have a talented guard next to him who can handle ballhandling duties and set him up much like Crawford did last season.

There really is no good comparison to be made between Bledsoe and Wright, even tangentially. The same goes for Miles, who also has very different circumstances. I agree that Bledsoe is not a sure thing, but I think there's a strong case (with lots of support) to be made for him being a fantasy stud this season. There is an argument to be made that he may have been taken too early, but it's not unprecedented and I wouldn't be surprised if his ADP ended up being somewhere in the 4th round this season.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby bokzg » Thu Aug 22, 2013 10:09 pm

jphanned wrote:If Brandan Wright had played and continued to play 36 mpg he'd be drafted close to where Sanders is. I'd draft him in Round 4 without a second thought.


I'd be very wary of drafting Wright that early even if he was guaranteed 36 mpg simply because we have yet to see him play a significant number of games for even 30 min/g so far. I covered it in my other post, but I'd like to at least see a player display actual production that would justify such an early pick in actual games on several occasions before taking him there. Even guys like Kanter have at least shown elite production on the court in NBA games to prove that they can actually realize that potential.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby jphanned » Thu Aug 22, 2013 10:15 pm

bokzg wrote:
jphanned wrote:If Brandan Wright had played and continued to play 36 mpg he'd be drafted close to where Sanders is. I'd draft him in Round 4 without a second thought.


I'd be very wary of drafting Wright that early even if he was guaranteed 36 mpg simply because we have yet to see him play a significant number of games for even 30 min/g so far. I covered it in my other post, but I'd like to at least see a player display actual production that would justify such an early pick in actual games on several occasions before taking him there. Even guys like Kanter have at least shown elite production on the court in NBA games to prove that they can actually realize that potential.


Totally agree. Obviously there would have to be some sort of gradual build-up first where we get a glimpse of what he could do consistently with those type of minutes - you don't go from 18 mpg to 36 mpg overnight. Wright just isn't built to handle 36 mpg, and there's a reason why he's put out there in a limited role. Was merely positing this in theory, as if was he was in a similar situation to Bledsoe where opportunity was all that was holding him back.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DVauthrin » Fri Aug 23, 2013 12:51 am

Fenris-77 wrote:Best and Worst picks continued...


Worst Pick: Dwight Howard. I don't think Howard is always a bad pick in the fourth, but I only like on a purpose build Dwight FT% punt team. Otherwise I'd pass on him this high. The team he's on for this mock isn't really a FT% punt team, so Dwight may hurt more than he helps. Millsap is a .750-.800 guy and Horford is mid-.700's guy, neither is a prototypical Dwight-build big. They aren't useless for punting FT%, but it's not ideal, not when you're actually getting solid FT% from the guard corps. I may revise my opinion when I see the finished team.



If Horford and Millsap hit free throws like they did the two years before last year, then yes, I could've not punted free throw percentage I suppose. But if they both slump like last year, my team was in big trouble. Plus, even if I go after free theow percentage, doing so limits my options for players to fit such a build. With this team, I can pretty much go after what I want within reason.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 2:50 am

DVauthrin wrote:If Horford and Millsap hit free throws like they did the two years before last year, then yes, I could've not punted free throw percentage I suppose. But if they both slump like last year, my team was in big trouble. Plus, even if I go after free theow percentage, doing so limits my options for players to fit such a build. With this team, I can pretty much go after what I want within reason.

Don't get me wrong, I get what you're trying to do, and I get the doubts about FT% there with those two guys. I was more making a point about Dwight's roto value in general than I was about your specific build, but since it's a mock I had to pick your build apart to make the point.

Punting FT% isn't about going after guys with a lack there either, it's about drafting guys who are good despite their FT%. Horford and Millsap may make a fine pairing for a Dwight team, but you do have a certain amount of value tied up in your wing and PG FT% as well, and Dwight kills all of that, all by himself. And no, you can't really fix FT% on a Dwight team, I think it's pointless to even try really, especially when the punt strategy is such a strong build. So you can go after whatever you like, provided it's not FT%. :-b
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby DVauthrin » Fri Aug 23, 2013 5:03 am

Fenris-77 wrote:
DVauthrin wrote:If Horford and Millsap hit free throws like they did the two years before last year, then yes, I could've not punted free throw percentage I suppose. But if they both slump like last year, my team was in big trouble. Plus, even if I go after free theow percentage, doing so limits my options for players to fit such a build. With this team, I can pretty much go after what I want within reason.

Don't get me wrong, I get what you're trying to do, and I get the doubts about FT% there with those two guys. I was more making a point about Dwight's roto value in general than I was about your specific build, but since it's a mock I had to pick your build apart to make the point.

Punting FT% isn't about going after guys with a lack there either, it's about drafting guys who are good despite their FT%. Horford and Millsap may make a fine pairing for a Dwight team, but you do have a certain amount of value tied up in your wing and PG FT% as well, and Dwight kills all of that, all by himself. And no, you can't really fix FT% on a Dwight team, I think it's pointless to even try really, especially when the punt strategy is such a strong build. So you can go after whatever you like, provided it's not FT%. :-b


My goal in this build is to have the best field goal percentage and boards in the league, while obviously getting a one in FT%. Hopefully, I'm not the worst team turnover wise. Then it's about being very good in all other areas. Overall, I'm pretty happy with how its gone so far.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:26 am

DVauthrin wrote:My goal in this build is to have the best field goal percentage and boards in the league, while obviously getting a one in FT%. Hopefully, I'm not the worst team turnover wise. Then it's about being very good in all other areas. Overall, I'm pretty happy with how its gone so far.

If that's the plan it's the right plan. I might not see it yet, but that's why I said I re-evaluate the team once all the picks are in.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Fri Aug 23, 2013 7:49 am

jay_00 wrote:
Leszczur wrote:But such success stories are seldom enough for me to not hang my whole season on picking a prospect.

You said it was seldom, but avoided the names I dropped off the top of my head (Arenas, Lawson, Zach).


I avoided them for a reason. Every year we have players outprtforming their ADP. And if you have a knack for taking them - good for you, but I would be far from stating that this is the way to go. I don't know you guys so cannot tell if risk-benefit analysis is something you normally do when preparing for the draft. I certainly do that and for instance last year I had put all my risk eggs in the Curry-Nowitzki basket. I worked our great and I won the very competitive league (BTW - owners of James and Durant didn't even get to the podium), but I'm not going to say that it will be my strategy of choice simply because for every last year's Curry you have at least one last year's Bynum. The same way that for every Arenas or Zach you have at least one Beasley or Anthony Randolph. :-)

Those were just a few names that i remember off the top of my head. Im positive that if i wanted too, i could remember a whole bunch more. Gambling on prospects has paid off for me in the past, but by all means, play the safe route...see how far that takes you.


Again - if you know what you are doing, then it's not really a gamble, right?

Well being that Ive gone down in flames once in the cafe leagues, no im not one of those guys. I play to the end, and i attempt to improve my team however possible. However ive achieved 2nd and 3rd place finishes, both barely missing that elusive 1st place finish in these cafe leagues. I cant remember many times where i finished middle of the pack though. Its either a top 3 finsh, or bottom 3 for me usually. Thats what happens when you gamble.


So the only thing to say is good luck in the coming season. ;-)
Last edited by Leszczur on Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:09 am

Leszczur wrote:(...) I don't know you guys so cannot tell if risk-benefit analysis is something you normally do when preparing for the draft. I certainly do that and for instance last year I had put all my risk eggs in the Curry-Nowitzki basket. I worked our great and I won the very competitive league (BTW - owners of James and Durant didn't even get to the podium),


This is an auction league we're talking about, so the guy buying James had to spend almost half of his money to get him. In such leagues The Durant/James effect is not a problem at all...

As for Dwight and FT punt - I think Horford/Sapp are both good bigs in terms of fighting in this category. Both don't help us here a lot but actually don't hurt neither. That said I think Dwight was a good chance in round 4. Much better than 9cat player ranks say. He's an absolute value as soon as we take away the FT.

Well I would take him even higher for some of teams... When I was looking for good roto team cores, one of the best included LeBron and Dwight... Is it crazy to punt a category this early when you're lucky enough to get Bron? Maybe... But the foundation for many of cats would be huge then...
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Leszczur » Fri Aug 23, 2013 8:44 am

slawek wrote:
Leszczur wrote:(...) I don't know you guys so cannot tell if risk-benefit analysis is something you normally do when preparing for the draft. I certainly do that and for instance last year I had put all my risk eggs in the Curry-Nowitzki basket. I worked our great and I won the very competitive league (BTW - owners of James and Durant didn't even get to the podium),


This is an auction league we're talking about, so the guy buying James had to spend almost half of his money to get him. In such leagues The Durant/James effect is not a problem at all...


Sure, though to be absolutely fair having cheap keepers gives you an advantage similar to drafting James in the snake format so the actual price I didn't see as a most important thing. :-)
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