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Best and Worst Pick Commentary

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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Fri Aug 23, 2013 9:56 am

Leszczur wrote:Sure, though to be absolutely fair having cheap keepers gives you an advantage similar to drafting James in the snake format so the actual price I didn't see as a most important thing. :-)


Right, but this one doesn't look like a real problem... More like a feature than bug... Just one of reasons we like this league so much :-)
And it required so many unfortunate moves from the "cheap-Durant" owner to finally get thrown out of the first place...
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:06 pm

So, as promised, I tried to make my own selections while implementing the "punt ppg" strategy. Here are my picks (reduced just to 10 starters):

1.09 Marc Gasol (1.10 in the mock)
2.04 Mike Conley (3.02)
3.09 Nikola Vucevic (3.10)
4.04 George Hill (7.04 - what a reach!!!)
5.09 Jose Calderon (5.09)
6.04 Tyson Chandler (6.07)
7.09 Danny Green (8.01)
8.04 Kyle Korver (9.06)
9.09 Shawn Marion (9.11)
10.04 Andrei Kirilenko (10.06)

Someone said that the strategy works better for auctions. And was absolutely right (at least according to this mock's flow). I feel I could get all those players much cheaper when bidding. Or get some better ones. But then also we wouldn't have our "Durant/James" problem :-)

I think my team is not very injury prone, some players will rather drop in production (Kiri?), some may even have upside (Calderon?). Here are my "per player" cats taken from last season's stats:

PPG - 12.36 - obvious punt
RB - 5.98
AST - 3.35
BL - 0.75
ST - 1.11
FG - 49%
FT - 79%
TO - 1.63
3s - 1.05

Well, looks like not enough to beat LeBron/Durant owners so my experiment rather failed. But I would definately stay in the competition, think much better than the 9th place.

This group I selected based on my feelings rather than deep calculations. The next step is using my database tool to check the strategy once it comes to my drafts' preparation :-)
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:44 pm

slawek wrote:So, as promised, I tried to make my own selections while implementing the "punt ppg" strategy. Here are my picks (reduced just to 10 starters):

1.09 Marc Gasol (1.10 in the mock)
2.04 Mike Conley (3.02)
3.09 Nikola Vucevic (3.10)
4.04 George Hill (7.04 - what a reach!!!)
5.09 Jose Calderon (5.09)
6.04 Tyson Chandler (6.07)
7.09 Danny Green (8.01)
8.04 Kyle Korver (9.06)
9.09 Shawn Marion (9.11)
10.04 Andrei Kirilenko (10.06)

Someone said that the strategy works better for auctions. And was absolutely right (at least according to this mock's flow). I feel I could get all those players much cheaper when bidding. Or get some better ones. But then also we wouldn't have our "Durant/James" problem :-)

I think my team is not very injury prone, some players will rather drop in production (Kiri?), some may even have upside (Calderon?). Here are my "per player" cats taken from last season's stats:

PPG - 12.36 - obvious punt
RB - 5.98
AST - 3.35
BL - 0.75
ST - 1.11
FG - 49%
FT - 79%
TO - 1.63
3s - 1.05

Well, looks like not enough to beat LeBron/Durant owners so my experiment rather failed. But I would definately stay in the competition, think much better than the 9th place.

This group I selected based on my feelings rather than deep calculations. The next step is using my database tool to check the strategy once it comes to my drafts' preparation :-)


Yeah you'd have to dig more into your projections and not last seasons numbers. My projections would have your averages beat in every category but TOs, blocks, and FG%. I think you might have issues with your FG% too. If one guy has an off year or gets injured and is let's say Tyson Chandler, your FG% is going to drop much greater since you're looking at a much smaller sample size.
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby Fenris-77 » Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:55 pm

My projections are bigger than yours! Hah! :-b Jim does have a lot of schwartz, I'll give him that.

I also don't like that proposed team at all. Too many reaches, not enough value picks - it doesn't look like a winner to me. :-/
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby slawek » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:14 pm

Of course it's not the team to look good :-) No one likes such a group! What I like much more is the cat summary. And the fact that there's so many reaches here leaves me thinking that there's some room to grow here.

As for FG, Jim - I'm not particularly worried about it. I don't have actually anybody really hurting me here. I think threes could be a bigger problem if someone fails, as we discussed before. Maybe assists also could be a problem.

Do you think projections could be really different for many of my players? Well, Kirilenko, of course. Maybe Marion, who had suprisingly good last season. Anyone else?
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Re: Best and Worst Pick Commentary

Postby silentjim » Fri Sep 06, 2013 9:22 pm

slawek wrote:Of course it's not the team to look good :-) No one likes such a group! What I like much more is the cat summary. And the fact that there's so many reaches here leaves me thinking that there's some room to grow here.

As for FG, Jim - I'm not particularly worried about it. I don't have actually anybody really hurting me here. I think threes could be a bigger problem if someone fails, as we discussed before. Maybe assists also could be a problem.

Do you think projections could be really different for many of my players? Well, Kirilenko, of course. Maybe Marion, who had suprisingly good last season. Anyone else?


Korver shot 46% from the field last season and his career average is 43% and he's shot as low as 40%. Chandler has been shooting lights out over the last few seasons, but it's also possible with Amare and now Bargs that he scores even less, which means his positive z score in FG% will just continue to dwindle.

I agree 100% that you could actually construct a team better than the one you've laid out though. Too bad Kidd retired. :-D
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